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Minefield of a race, which I’m pretty sure I’ve never managed to bet the winner of, though I’ll cling on to a few big priced outsiders who managed to place.
I’ve went for Unanimite each way at 25’s. Liked his run here last time, and I think he could be better than his current mark. 25’s seemed fair, just hope he goes now, and he’s still available at 20’s.
There’s all sorts lurking in there, but I also like the look of the Gordon Elliot pair, Diamond King (14’s) & Vercingetorix (50’s), and also the Philips Hobbs trained Sternrubin (14’s).
I’m actually tempted by that 50’s on Vercingetorix, but not made my mind up yet, as not sure whether I want to betting more than one in this, considering my record in the race
GL
It all depends what turns up. I think Altior could be well treated and so could be Sternrubin. However will wait till declaration stage before having a bet
I really like the look of DIAMOND KING. He is 7 yrs, which makes him a little
older that your ideal type for this, generally 5 or 6, but he has only ever run
9 times and I think he is open to a lot of improvement.He started off looking like something, winning 4 out of 5 in 2013 and the start
of 2014. It would have been 5 on the bounce but for a horror mistake at the last
on his 4th race, when 2/7 fav at Bangor.Two NHF races and 3 ordinary type maiden hurdles wouldn’t give many pointers in
themselves, but for the way he won them, which was very impressive.He came back out after a year off, and ran 2 very unimpressive races at the
start of 2015 (Jan & Feb), when I was expecting big things from him. I don’t know
what the problem was, but he was very disappointing. He had been trained up until
then by Donald McCain, however he was moved to Gordon Elliot’s yard.He came out late October in a decent race at Down Royal, and had obviously been showing
something at home as he went off 7/2 fav. He was running a good race when he was very
badly hampered at the 4th last, he recovered and ran on well for 4th.His last race, in a good class handicap at Fairyhouse in November, was a very solid looking
performance, running on really well for 2nd. Again he was fancied, going off 11/4
fav.If Gordon Elliot has targeted him at this, it’s because he thinks he has a real chance.
He looked very good early on, and now with the change of trainer looks to be coming back
to his old self. Elliot knows how to prepare one for this race, having won it twice out
of the last 3 years.I’m with you on this Bobby, I’m very sweet on his chances and can see his odds
tumble before they get to post. 14/1 is huge I think.Best of luck
Absolutely pig sick, I thought of hanging on until the final
declarations today before having a bet, and then at 00.50am
this morning I crumbled. I had visions of DIAMOND KING being
shortened to 10/1 (from 14s) after the final decs, and as
Davy Russell was down for riding him, I thought I was safe
to go in.Checked to see what price he was a few mins ago, and got that
horrible sinking feeling when I realised he wasn’t there.I wished I hadn’t fancied him so much, so that’s my dosh
in Mr Boyle’s back pocket before they even get to the
starting tapes
It’s like 2 little voices in your head, one being the “just wait
for now, you can get it on once you’re sure it’s running”, and then you
get that bugger that pipes up “get in there!!!!…you’re going to miss
that price if you hang on, it’s sure to be gone by the morning”. I should
know better.Anyway, no point crying over etc etc, so just in case Gordon Elliott’s only
runner, VERCINGETORIX, keeps up Elliott’s good record in this I’m going to
take the 33s (which seems to be disappearing quickly) with Boylesports. He
needs to get out of the habit of 2nds he has gotten into, and his first race
at Fairyhouse after 4 months wasn’t at all impressive, but I hope that was
just a pipe opener.I also might a have a little nibble at Nicholls 2, SOME PLAN and VINCENZO MIO.
I keep waiting for Nicholls to hoover up these big races, it’s only a matter of
time before normal service is resumed IMO.Some Plan was travelling like a winner last time out, but found nothing at the
finish, hopefully he will be better for that, 16/1 seems decent.He was beaten that day by his stable mate VM, who is worse at the weights, but
will be carrying no weight, so i don’t know if that will make any difference.
At 25/1 a small cover bet e/w won’t hurt.I hope something comes up from those 3 or it will have been an expensive Ladbroke
for me
Commiserations Big G – very annoying. Am finding that a horse being jocked up seems much less reliable a pointer these days. You made a strong case for the horse, too.
I suspect Winner Massagot might be a blot, but he’s pretty short for a hot race, and I’m going with Zarib at 16s. He has a decent race in him; whether this will be it, I don’t know!
Cheers for that Joe. The team of Harry and Dan Skelton is a pretty
useful one, good luck with ZaribDefinitely wait till the day now for obvious reasons. It’ll definitely be Sternrubin, but I may add Vercingetorix…………so a good chance we’ll be shouting home The Elliot horse G
Cheers Bobby, STERNRUBIN looks the model of consistency, if the handicapper
hasn’t caught up with him he’s very much in with a shout. At least my new
3 are still all there this morning, good luck if you go for VERCINGETORIX,
he’s been nibbled at in a few quarters, but there’s still 33s about.Lets hope that one of us, and hopefully both of us, manage to claw some of
the dosh back that we’ve already donated to the bookie
Most weeks I would striving to persuade myself to avoid this type of race but this time have given it a go as there isn’t much that looks punter friendly elsewhere.
The first thing that strikes you is the mass of front runners. One of them might hold on but I think the percentage call is to ignore the lot.
Winner Massagot looks the obvious one but although a strong pace should help him settle he doesn’t have much experience and 6/1 is too short for me.
My three against the field are Sort It Out, Sgt Reckless and Song Light. It will be interesting to see how the first named goes in the market as of course he may need the run. He was very progressive last season and should have finished closer in the County. Song Light isn’t the most consistent but he has the odd bit of form that would give him a squeak. Sgt Reckless has plenty of weight but is a class act on his day and if the ground dries out a little he could pick off a fair few of these.
I have to back Sgt Reckless . Have backed Hurricane Hollow ew, Versingetorix ew and Winner Massagot w [he’s down as the best horse in the yard in my horses to follow book].
It’s a quiet night at work, so here’s my very very brief spin through them. Cliff notes: I think Winner Massagot is the likeliest winner and Three Kingdoms EW @ 50s is the bet.
Devilment: Handles all conditions but arguably better on good. Ironed-out in the Greatwood and needs more.
Renneti: Will he start? Obviously very talented but untrustworthy and edged up in the weights from the Greatwood.
Three Kingdoms: Interesting. High class novice chaser until he lost his bottle last year, previously beat a then 121-rated Vibrato Valtat in a handicap hurdle (giving 10lbs, pair clear). Solid comeback behind Winner Massagot – got behind after jumping big early on but eventually adjusted to the hurdles and ran on. Should improve, will love conditions and stamina will come into play with a strong pace.Sgt Reckless: Tricky to pin down his ideal conditions. If he was up to winning a race like this, wouldn’t he have tried already?
Sort It Out: Very solid. 2nd in County and improved to win 60k pot at Punchestown. Possibly not a case of a Geraghty ‘choosing’ Waxies Dargle over him since M P Walsh knows the horse and Barry knows WG. Big player no doubt.
Waxies Dargle: Often goes well fresh, but no excuses in the Greatwood. I prefer Sort It Out of the McManus pair.
Noble Inn: Interesting form back in the day: beat Clarcam in a maiden hurdle. Won well last time, but Ruby stays at Fairyhouse to boot home a few odds-on shots.
Jolly’s Cracked It: Big buzz around this horse all week, apparently did some sizzling work. Needs to improve from previous handicap runs though, also not an easy ride – current price seems poor value unless the hype is correct. Still, interesting that such a big horse has been kept hurdling this year…although brother Crack Away Jack wasn’t very co-ordinated…
Some Plan – I was a big Seedling fan, so his meeting with the ill-fated hurdler last year reads like strong form to me. Still, it’ll be hard to make all the running (assuming Sam T-D lets him loose this time) in a race like this.
Rayvin Black – Smashing horse, great attitude. Probably one of the more exposed ones in the field, though. Wouldn’t enjoy a pace war with Some Plan.
Hurricane Hollow – Typical Skelton snatch, improving steadily but has been beaten in easier contests.
Unanimite – I’m a big fan of this one and backed him in the Fred Winter last year (diabolical ride btw), but soft ground is not good news.
Vercingetorix – Dramatic loss of form last year and worrying run in first-time blinkers last time. Lots of questions to answer.
Bidourey – Another who might get involved in the bunfight for the lead. Thrashed twice in big handicaps but will probably enjoy more cut underfoot. David Pipe’s horses are going better than they were at the time of the Greatwood, though. Still, his novice hurdling form didn’t work out too well. Tiny stakes bet all the same.
Winner Massagot – Deservedly favourite after cantering away with a decent race last time. Thumped by the handicapper but completely unexposed and sure to enjoy creeping into the race off a strong pace. Stable in great form, especially in big Saturday races.
Sternrubin – Won a poor renewal of the Gerry Feilden, but previous form has worked out very well. Another who might be compromised by the pace war, though.
Zarib: I’ve got “attitude?” in my notebook for this one. Ran very well in the Elite Hurdle from out of the handicap and will appreciate the strong pace. Not one for maximum trust, though.
Galizzi: Chosen by Coleman from 3 John Ferguson horses, including my fancy Three Kingdoms. Chased home handicap plot A Hare Breath last time but nailed by the handicapper as a result. Needs more in a stronger race.Vincenzo Mio – A few excuses last time out behind Devilment, but probably needs to find at least 15lbs more improvement.
Song Light – Tailed-off behind Sternrubin last time and seems miles out of his depth.
Jollys Cracked It loves Ascot and this race seems to have been the plan for a long time. Bit worried about that one.
Bit skinny considering how open this is but I’m expecting Jollys Cracked it to make the frame
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