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Hard enough guessing who’s going, never mind picking one out on the day, but love a challenge. Had many good days with this race, but that form has certainly tailed off the last few years, with only a couple placed.
Last year was a definite lowlight, with my main fancy, Cheviot, finishing stone last. He’ll be touch and go to get in this time, being a lot lower in the weights, but if he does get in, he’ll probably be in my sights again. Seems to be in decent form.
Blainne has been too bad to be true this season, after looking promising last season, but as a consequence he’s slipped down the weights rather rapidly. If sneaking in, I’d definitely be having an interest. Already wasted a few quid on him this year, might as well chuck a few more at him.
Talking of throwing money away, my biggest loser of the season was Tiddliwinks in The Stewards Cup. He was poor that day, and not much better last time. However, I thought I saw glimpses of promise
and he’d probably, stupidly no doubt, be bet. He looked as if he was going to be very good, and I’m not giving up yet. I think. He runs in the colours of the late Guy Reed, along with Can You Conga. CYC looks very unlikely to get in, but he’ll definitely be one for another day. Would love him to make it though.Hawkeyethenoo, and Hitchens are both very decent horses, and if both turning up, would definitely enter equations. Hawkeye in particular, appeals, as I struggle to see him going the season without being laid out for a big pot.
Dr Marwan Koukash, has his usual spate of entries, and would be foolish not to keep an eye on all of them, but the main 2 that appeal at the moment are Summerinthecity in particular, and Face The Problem. Watching brief for his runners at the moment, but Summerinthecity looks an obvious runner, and could be an interesting antepost proposition. Thought he ran with a lot of promise at Ripon a couple of weeks back.
There’s easily, not surprisingly, another dozen I like the look of, but with most of them struggling to get in, I’ll stick with those mentioned.
For the timebeing
Yes, roll up roll up …..for the annual donation to the bookies courtesy of Ayr Racecourse. It’s either having a punt on the Ayr Gold Cup or taking up the quest for the Holy Grail……I’m still swithering as to which one I’d have more luck at.
You know when you get that "ahhh….I’ve just spotted a horse that would absolutely skoot up in the Ayr Gold Cup" well I’m afraid that I’ve had that moment. I watched Barnet Fair win over 5f at Ascot in July, he looked impressive. I had a small punt on him in the Stewards Cup, he was well out the back and came through nicely to chase the leaders, but looked like he slightly ran out of fuel inside the final furlong. On refection, I think he came out too quickly (6 days)after his Ascot race. He was back out at the big York meeting (21st August) and ran a very promising race. He was very slow away and had to come from last through a big field. He made very good ground and was a strongly running on 5th, beaten less than 2 lengths, over 5 1/2 f, so I now have no worries about him making the 6f at Ayr. He’s obviously the type of horse that is going to be held up, and obviously in a race like the Gold Cup he would need some luck in running, but I’m quite excited about his chances.
He’s 33-1 with all bookies, I’m going to keep a close eye and if anyone pushes him out further, or if the 33s starts to go, I’m have a punt.
VTC, I’m in full agreement with you on Summerinthecity, he was unlucky not to win the Sky Dash at York, and he ran a very good race in the Great St Wilfred. He was very tardy at the start but made good ground to win the race on his side, which put him 5th overall. I definitely will be having a back up punt on him, he’s just the type of horse that David Nicholls will aim at the race, and he knows how to get a horse ready to win this. He is also 33s.
Having said all that, I think chasing the Holy Grail still looks a good alternative.
Good luck with Barnet Fair G, looks a decent shout.
Yeah, Summerinthecity @ 33’s looks outstanding value, I’m swithering between him, Tiddliwinks, and Hawkeyethenoo at the moment. Summer and Hawkeye appeal from an antepost point of view, as they’re both fairly sure to have this as a target.
You know my thoughts VTC – Summerinthecity all the way. Hope he has some pace to tow him in to the finish.
Hey Peruvian, yeah, had a long think about it, and decided he’s got to be bet at that price just now. 33’s is decent, and well worth the risk. Think I’ll leave my other 2 just now, as they’ll hopefully no contract too much in price, especially Tiddliwinks, but if SITC goes, no way he’ll be 33’s. Good Luck.
As the big day looms, I’m getting a bit jittery about my pick, Barnet Fair. The one thing he very obviously doesn’t need is soft ground, and it doesn’t look like the sun is going to be splitting the trees in Ayr this week. The current state of the ground is good to soft, soft in places and more rain is forecast. Fortunately I hung off punting him watching what the market did, he’s out to 40s with BV, but as his run in the Portland on Saturday clearly showed (and we knew it before that anyway), he doesn’t cope with ground worse than good, and really needs it on the firm side. I would not be surprised if he was taken out by Richard Guest.
Summerinthecity has at least won on soft (back in 2010)and is still interesting, but with the going likely to be soft at best, I’m getting pretty keen on Colonel Mak. He will love the ground and the track, and having been 4th and 5th in the race the last two years I think the 33s with BV and Corals is a solid bet. He is also entered in the Silver Cup and if the going was better I don’t think he would make the cut for the Gold Cup, but with the conditions as they are I think there will be plenty withdrawn and he will be there. I doubt very much he will be anything like 33s on the day so I’ve taken him anti post. He won’t be withdrawn so even if he doesn’t make the cut my bet won’t be down.VTC I know you and Peruvian were keen on Summerinthecity, are you sticking with him or have you unearthed anything else for the race.
Best of luck anyway.I’m not actually sure SITC will get in to be fair.
I like the look on general profiles of two of the four year olds – Lover Man & Nocturn.
With the ground information as per the above, I am especially keen on LOVER MAN, a Listed Winner in France who has been bought and sent to Keith Dalgliesh, specifically with this race in mind. Clearly unexposed and would seemingly relish some cut.
I’d like to hear something positive from Keith D this week (probably doubtful to hear anything), and ideally was hoping he’d have a ‘quiet’ UK introduction somewhere. Both to see that he has settled, and ideally a run a bit nearer the race would have been preferable.
None the less, I do find him interesting. Available for a few quid at 80-90 on BF (zero matched as yet), I will be watching the market this week with interest.
Interesting call Peruvian, especially Lover Man. I knew nothing of this horse and there is no doubt he has shown very good form in decent races. He also has good form on very soft ground in France so no problems with the likely ground conditions. Another bonus is he has won over 7 furlongs and with a cavalry charge like the Gold Cup, horses need to get every yard of the 6f at Ayr. My only concern, a bit like yourself, is how he copes with the change from France and course form at Ayr can be an advantage. Over the past 10 years the majority of winners have previously run at Ayr, often in the Gold or Silver Cups. Well dug out, I like someone who looks beyond the obvious, that’s where the value lies. Best of luck with him.
Just one moan now at Coral bookmakers, and I’ve had this more with them than any other bookies. I tried to place £20e/w on Colonel Mak at 33-1 on my online account, it was refused and I was offered £10e/w. I took the bet, grudgingly, and put another tenner e/w on at Betvictor who were the only other bookie offering 33s. I have had this several times with Coral, in particular placing in running golf bets. I like to look for someone with a bit of decent odds and several times with the bet has been offered at a lesser stake. I’m not talking about wads of money, I’m talking about suck as £20e/w 25 or 33-1, or maybe £10e/w at 50 or 66-1. All returns would be under a grand, and yet regularly the turn the bet down. I’ve raised this matter with them 3 times when the bet was refused, and got the same reply, ie
"Please be advised that our Trading Department have the right to refuse, restrict or alter any bets that they see fit, without giving a reason to the customer."
I’ve not had this problem with similar bets with BV, PP, BF, Sky, WH or Boylesports. I know the option is to bet elsewhere, and generally I do, it’s just annoying when checking prices on oddschecker during an event, particularly golf, Coral often offer better odds. After faffing about and bets being refused, I’ve lost odds by the time I’ve got my bet on elsewhere.
Sorry about that rant, I feel better getting that off my chest.
At the risk of sounding a right moan, anyone else find it a bit annoying that the racingpost online still don’t have the field for the Gold Cup on their site. It’s been on attheraces for weeks now.
Honestly, I’m definitely finished now……bahhh humbug…..I don’t beeeeelieve it.
G, was less than impressed by SITC last time, so probably hoping he doesn’t make the cut now.
I’ve bet Tiddliwinks at 140’s now, you never know…….he’s got to bounce back at some point, I’ll wait till the decs are out though, before trying to pick out another.
Good luck if you follow Peruvian in with his shout.
I think something rated in the 90s will have the best chance and a horse trained by Dandy Nicholls as he is due a big sprint win. Rodrigo De Torres fits the bill for me after an encouraging run at Ripon last time.
RDT is on 94 I think, that is the concern of course. Will wait until the day before I bet, especially with the forecast rain. Angels Will Fall is interesting following his win last week.
I think something rated in the 90s will have the best chance and a horse trained by Dandy Nicholls as he is due a big sprint win. Rodrigo De Torres fits the bill for me after an encouraging run at Ripon last time.
A brave shout Rich, considering his record in the race last year and the Silver Cup the year before (25 of 26 and 23 of 24 respectively) but there’s no doubting he goes into it in much finer fettle this year, after a fine win in the Scottish Stewards Cup and a good race at Ripon. My main worry would be that last years race was on heavy and the silver cup the year before was on soft. I’m not sure he wants the type of ground he’s likely to encounter.
Like my fancy, Colonal Mak (48th in racecard), he needs a few to come out (51st), but with the conditions I think there will be enough withdrawn to get both horses in, probably even Summerinthecity (56th) for VTC and Peruvian, if they still fancy him.
Good luckRich, I see you replied whilst I was still typing my last post out, so I now realise that you are well aware of the possible problem with the ground conditions. A wise move to wait and see what the conditions are like….ignore my previous pointing out of the problem.
Good luck
Thanks for the comments Big, I’m not usually one for betting ante post, especially when there’s a question mark over the ground, but I did like RDT’s last run behind Baccarat, staying on into third. Yes, he did run poorly last year where it was a bog but it was his first run for the yard, good to soft ground i dont think would inconvenience him. The reason why I fancied a 90 rated runner was that low weights historically do well, and although RDT might not get in off 94, I would still be inclined to look at the foot of the weights. Colonel MAK would revel if it came up soft and has been in decent form recently albeit at a lower level, he would be a good each way shout should he get in. Angels Will Fall would be a fascinating runner as she clearly enjoys a bit of cut, and also has a win to her name at the course, she would merit close consideration if is declared.
Rich, I’m down in Dunoon at the moment (about 30 odd miles as the crow flies across the water from Ayr) and its been chucking it down most of the day. Showers due tomorrow, Wed and and more persistent rain on Thursday. Friday and Saturday should be better but I feel the rain will be in the ground by then.
The going report from the BHA today at 0845 now has the ground as soft. The course hasn’t been taking the rain too well this year and some racing has been lost as a result.
I agree with you that Colonel Mak will revel in the conditions, he also loves the track, and as I mentioned, he was 4th and 5th the last two years off 99, and won the Silver Cup the previous year. He now runs off 95. He seems to have been running around Ayr for years, but is still only 6 years. Betvictor and Coral still go 33-1, there’s no chance that will be available if he gets in. I think that will be likely with ground conditions and the withdrawls as a result. Only down side to taking him now is that you are likely to get 5 places offered on Saturday. I think it’s worth the chance to get the price.
I can’t see Colonel Mak getting in. By my reckoning he needs about 20 to come out.
I like the look of two former winners, Regal Parade and Our Jonathan, but they also need 7/8 to come out.
Of those guaranteed a run I like Shropshire but slight concern he’s creeped up the handicap too much. He’s also been on the go since early season whilst I do like to see one primed for Ayr. I’ve just about talked myself out of backing him there but 25/1 is decent value IMO.
and he’d probably, stupidly no doubt, be bet. He looked as if he was going to be very good, and I’m not giving up yet. I think. He runs in the colours of the late Guy Reed, along with Can You Conga. CYC looks very unlikely to get in, but he’ll definitely be one for another day. Would love him to make it though.
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