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Anyone guess what the riding arrangements will be for Ballydoyle?
Who is the stables first string Mars or Cristoforo Colombo
Im guessing CC will be Josephs ride, Mars has been a lot more active in the Derby market than Guineas, could be anything but obviously held in high regard.
Interesting…
DEEMAN
Anyone guess what the riding arrangements will be for Ballydoyle?
Who is the stables first string Mars or Cristoforo Colombo Im guessing CC will be Josephs ride, Mars has been a lot more active in the Derby market than Guineas, could be anything but obviously held in high regard.
Interesting…
DEEMAN
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8684023/obrien-set-for-colombo-in-guineas
Blackbeard to conquer the World
The more I have analysed this race, the more I am coming to the conclusion that neither of the front two will win. May seem like a strange conclusion to come to given they are both unbeaten, but let me explain.
Dawn Approach just doesn’t look good enough to me. I know he has recorded good time figures and is well-regarded, but take a look at the video of the Dewhurst.
This was a dire group one, yet it took him ages to even get past his extremely limited stablemate. He also looks on the small side on the video and you have to question how much scope he truly has. May I even be as bold to suggest, that he is a place lay? Nuts I know but wouldn’t be the first two year old champion to prove a dud at three.
Toronado looks more solid, but you scratch beneath the surface and he’s never recorded a decent time, and he’s by a horse who was better over further. Could he be a relentless galloper that is vulnerable to something with a turn of speed? I know I was raving about his fractions in the craven, but with the benefit of hindsight that may have had more to do with the fact they went no pace in that and it turned into a sprint.
The like’s of garswood and Moohaajim won’t get home in a horse box and probably aren’t good enough anyway, which leaves you with the O’brien lot.
He’s the most successful trainer in the 2000 guineas in modern times,and for good reason. Ok the vibes about his runners haven’t been overwhelming but does that matter? Colombo I would favour of the two. Mar’s looks like another out and out galloper who may need 10 furlongs. Colombo may have a stamina doubt as well, being by a johannesburg mare, but if he does stay I think he’ll do this lot for toe. Certainly I could see no justification for backing the front two at these awful prices.
I don’t recall Henrythenavigator receiving widespread attention either and he went around at 12-1.
You haven’t mentioned George Vancouver and neither it seems has anyone. How come? I know the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is chump change compared to other Guineas trials but he won it and won it very easily I thought – and he wasn’t merely beating up on States-based hacks either.
If fast ground materialises on the day I think 16-1 is way too big.
I’ve said so much about Dawn Approach and his chances on this thread and for me, and this is a personal opinion, I believe he just has to turn up
If there is one out there to beat him then so be it, that’s racing and it never ceases to surprise, but I’ve never felt so confident about a horse winning the Guineas apart from Frankel.
He has matured into a beautiful horse in the hands of Jim Bolger and I can’t really fault his Dewhurst run, he does his best work 2 furlongs from home and he won the race.
When I saw this race on You Tube I could understand how people thought him lazy in the Dewhurst, it’s the Vincent O’Brien at the Curragh last September a month before his Dewhurst win:-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOMc59-p4xc
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Dawn Approach just doesn’t look good enough to me. I know he has recorded good time figures and is well-regarded, but take a look at the video of the Dewhurst.
Fair enough he doesn’t develop at 3 but based on his two year old career, this is one of the most stupid things that’s been said on this thread, where were you when he routed the second horse on earlier runs?
I don’t recall Henrythenavigator receiving widespread attention either and he went around at 12-1.
You haven’t mentioned George Vancouver and neither it seems has anyone. How come? I know the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is chump change compared to other Guineas trials but he won it and won it very easily I thought – and he wasn’t merely beating up on States-based hacks either.
If fast ground materialises on the day I think 16-1 is way too big.
Yeah I agree. Reason I didn’t mention him was because I didn’t realise he was running! 16-1 is huge about a horse that won a breeders cup last time out. Ok you could argue that’s a hypocritical statement given he got beaten in the Dewhurst, a race i’ve already trashed, but the ground was likely noticeably softer then than it will be on saturday.
Dawn Approach just doesn’t look good enough to me. I know he has recorded good time figures and is well-regarded, but take a look at the video of the Dewhurst.
Fair enough he doesn’t develop at 3 but based on his two year old career, this is one of the most stupid things that’s been said on this thread, where were you when he routed the second horse on earlier runs?
But even on earlier runs he was prone to a flat spot. That flat spot will do for him on saturday, in my opinion. My feeling is that as a two year old he was just more mature and well-developed than his contemporaries- that may well have vanished by the weekend. We’ll see but i’m increasingly confident he’ll get turned over.
For me, I think both of the market principals will end up being suited to further in time, however, I think of those two Toronado is the better priced and looks like the best bet.
I’ve also had a small e/w bet on George Vancouver – he’s bred for these distances, he’s got some decent form, and you’d hope he’d improve with age.
So
Toronado (win)
George Vancouver (ew)FLD
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
I think you can almost strike a line through Mars. If he is the next Sea The Stars you would have thought Joey would be getting the leg up, was he not touted as more a Derby horse anyway. On the drift also.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Elgransenor, I’m sorry but your argument doesn’t hold that much water.
Dawn Approach is already rated 121. He’s beaten Cristoforo Colombo, who is 6 weeks older than DA, and George Vancouver.
Jim Bolger rates him up there with New Approach, so how can you be confident that DA and Toronado will get turned over?
In reality i’m far more convinced that dawn approach will be turned over thn toronado.
I’m just not convinced by the horse I never have been.
If hewins i’ll hold m hands up but just can’t see it.
please excuse the terrible grammar m keyboard is in its last legs!
DA is certainly good enough, but the fact remains that he is just a horse and could easily have an off day, or not have luck in running, or not find the ground to his liking. For these reasons and the skinny odds, I’ll opt for Moohaajim, who has the beating of CC and Correspondent and will like the drying ground. 25/1.
DA is certainly good enough, but the fact remains that he is just a horse and could easily have an off day, or not have luck in running, or not find the ground to his liking. For these reasons and the skinny odds, I’ll opt for Moohaajim, who has the beating of CC and Correspondent and will like the drying ground. 25/1.
I am on Moohaajim ante-post but I don’t fancy him at all after his Greenham effort. I think he needed to come out and win that in some style to show he has made the progress over the winter that would make him a realistic contender. Olympic Glory is not going to Newmarket and the presence of Sir Patrick Moore in 2nd place in the Greenham, seemingly with a stone to find on Moohaajim, gives the form a shaky look to it. The faster ground may help Moohaajim but I think the extra furlong may well negate that. I think there is little that appeals at the odds now. If I HAD to pick one it would be Toronado because of his fitness edge and in the hope that he might kick first and get enough of a lead on Dawn Approach to last home.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I concur that he is up against it on form, but I can visualise there being an upset and he’s one that could go well at decent odds if recapturing his early 2 yo form.
I see Bolger’s pacemaker Leiter Mor has been drawn next to Toronado, 13 and 12 respectively. Hopefully should get a good toe through the race till Hughesie says GO…!!!!
Blackbeard to conquer the World
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