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Fallon’s tenacity continues to impress, as does de Sousa’s. However, Hanagan’s strategy continues to look better organised. For example Fallon and de Sousa ride at Haydock tomorrow in very big fields whereas Hanagan has smaller fields at Newmarket. Also Hanagan’s Scottish rides at Musselborough, Hamilton and Ayr fit together well enough to avoid excessive travel.
Nevertheless Fallon and de Sousa have done well to remain just about within stiking distance. It remains to be seen though if Fallon goes to the Melbourne Cup and/or de Sousa gets a totting up penalty.
‘I gave the title my best shot and managed 22 winners in the past 10 days, but it wasn’t quite enough.’
So said Richard Hughes last year. So it’s possible for Fallon to catch up but at present his strike rate isn’t significantly different from Hanagan’s. His regime is fairly gruelling, for example a double shift today at Haydock and Wolverhampton with no winners (except perhaps in the last race tonight). And I don’t think he will get the kind of short odds horses that Hughes got at the end of last season. I am still inclined to the view that he will throw in the towel some time in October, ease off and go to the Melbourne Cup and possibly Breeders Cup if he gets a chance.
De Sousa I think will behave similarly in giving up in October.
Incidentally, there isn’t as far as I know a trophy for this competition. It seems from the PJA website that the jockeys are looking for sponsors. Perhaps we could buy a "Racing Forum" trophy and give it to the winner at Doncaster.
Telegraph: I’m feeling more and more confident that I can do it [win title],” said Fallon. “In fact, I’ll be very disappointed if I don’t catch him. I feel fresh and focused, it keeps you on your toes. I’m checking to see where Paul and Silvestre are riding every day and how they are getting on.
Still difficult, especially now he has picked up a two day ban on 12,13 Oct. But he has closed the gap slightly on Hanagan and has forged ahead of SDS.
Wolverhampton and Kempton will be important as they go into the endgame. Fallon has a higher strike rate than Hanagan at both venues.
On the other hand, Fallon is racing at Ascot on Fri and Sat where winners won’t be easy to get.
The race is beginning to resemble last year’s, with Hanagan faltering and the principal contender doing better than expected. Fallon is not doing as well as Hughes either this year or last but he is closing the gap – now 9. SDS is pretty much out of it so it’s down to the last two.
Assuming they both have 200 rides left, Fallon will need a 5% better strike rate than Hanagan to win. Unlikely but feasible if say Fallon does 15% and Hanagan 10%.
However, it looks like Hanagan will have a few more rides than Fallon as Fallon is banned on 12,13 Oct and might go to the Melbourne Cup.
Also Fallon is more likely to attend the prestigious events like Champions Day where strike rates might be low.
Furthermore, it looks like Hanagan might be going all out now. He is booked to ride at Wolverhampton in the evening after riding at Ayr. This requires an aircraft so would appear to be uneconomic – suggesting he is still highly motivated to defend the title.
I notice my previous calculations have not been very useful so far. Having written off SDS, he has just bounced back with a quadruple.
Anyway I am for the first time contemplating that there is a serious chance Hanagan could be caught. Fallon seems to be getting slightly better rides than Hanagan now and is surprisingly willing to ride almost anywhere and any time for a winner. It’s going to be a close run thing, especially if SDS sustains his recovery.
Perhaps, given most of my forecasting has been wrong lately, this will be the spur to Hanagan booting home a few winners.
It is impossible not to admire Fallon. Riding horses is the only life he knows. He is 47 I believe.The only stable that would look at him was Cumani. He scratches rides where he can, he has more winners than all except Hanagan who started as the champion whereas Fallon started as a "Loser". I just cannot help but admire the man.He has so many strikes against him but he just keeps riding and riding and riding.Is that not what being a jockey is all about.I believe there must be a core of forum contributers who recognise the talent displayed in the saddle despite the flaws in other parts of ones personality.Fallon is the best if not the first in what he does for a living; in my opinion.
Have to agree despite he’s man who all but brought the game to it’s knees as a jockey he’s amazing.
Mind you it’s not just coincidence Paul Hanagan wins an awful lot of races on horses you can’t find a reason to back. I think it time the racing world may look back on Hanagan and recognise him as one of the all time greats.
Fallon is giving him a run for his money but I doubt if he’ll win the title and give us a fairytale ending. Paul Hanagan is just too good and the lead is too big.
I doubt if even Fallon with all his contacts and Terry working his butt off to get him winning rides will be enough
You raise a good point about Fallon’s agent Terry Norman. To some extent this a battle of the agents – Hanagan’s Hale versus Fallon’s Norman.
It will be interesting to see who bags the best rides when they come head to head. They were about evenly matched today at Nottingham on an SP basis, but Hanagan had the luck/skill to prevail 2-0.
I would guess if I was a neutral owner or trainer I would call Norman before Hale though as Fallon does seem to retain some of the old magic whereas Hanagan hasn’t quite yet achieved superstar status.
They will be going head to head quite a lot especially at Wolverhampton. Ironic really that their championship will be decided by results on meaningless races on the AW.
Interestingly Hanagan has some tasty rides at Wolverhampton tomorrow whereas Fallon’s bookings at York don’t look so promising. One might have expected things to be the other way round.
Hanagan’s lead of 7 might seem slender but it is still significant, especially if he is not at a statistical disadvantage in future races, which on the evidence of the Wolves bookings seems plausible. However, the new whipping rules could be significant as it is quite possible to screw up and get banned for a while.
I despise this count the whacks ruling it’s almost like the Stewards are having the right to use their experience and judgement to spot abuse.
What a bummer if Paul or Keiran were to miscount in the heat of the moment and a steward acting to the letter of the law was forced to impose a ban. The Steward would be every bit as sick as the unlucky jockey
One slip could ruin what could be the most dramatic conclusion to the Championship and if that is good for racing I’m a Dutchman.
Have to agree despite he’s man who all but brought the game to it’s knees as a jockey he’s amazing.
Would that be for the court case that was thrown out by the judge? Though it was more the BHA that all but brought the game to its knees there.
It was thrown out by the judge because the evidence was poorly gathered, badly presented etc by the BHA and the prosecution. Mr Fallon benefited more from their incompetence than I suspect we will ever know.
The BHA said after the trial that Fallon was not the focus of the trial whatever that meant.I believe they went after some of the other suspects afterwards but I am not sure.
This being a public forum for legal reason one must bite his tongue.
Let’s just say Fallon and OJ Simpson probably have the same tailor.
However that news was used up a long time ago for fish and chips.
As a pilot he’s up there with Cauthon, Piggot, Eddery etc and history will carve his name in stone as a great jockey.
Strangely there doesn’t seem to be much discussion of Fallon riding in the Melbourne Cup. If he does ride it will knock out at least 3 days of riding in the UK. I assume he will go, but I suppose if it’s still a close contest he might stay home to get a few more winners.
Terry Norman mentioned some time ago he reckons it depends on how close he is at time. if he’s in with a good shout he wont go to Oz.
3-0 for SDS obviously helps his chances. But he is set to go to Australia so will miss Monday and Tuesday. Apparently he will get back on Wed a.m. and ride that day. Not advisable I would say , but there you are.
SDS has a better book of rides than Hanagan tomorrow (27th) so the gap might soon be down to 3 or 4. But it looks like SDS will run out of time next week. My model has him at 8-1.
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