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Agree a lot of smoke and mirrors in the Williams camp. Currently some thunderstorms around Melbourne but not sure if they’re hitting the track. Certainly quite wet further south.
Any rain would certainly look to help the chances of Monaco Consul in the Derby tomorrow. No secret that I’m cheering Shamoline Warrior home there.
I’ve had a few nibbles at Mourilyan and thought he was the perfect MC horse the first time I ever saw him two seasons ago in Dubai. I think his little brother would be even more suited to the race. European StLeger/Ebor types have a pretty good MC record already. I’m sure he’d improve downunder.
Now I just need Euro millions tonight and I’ll go and knock on the Aga Khan’s door.
Barrier draw, and therefore confirmation of final field, is 6.30pm Saturday their time, which I think is 7.30am our time.
Good grief – only 12 hours away . . .
I’m learning a lot from this race.
Kirklees out.
The trainer didn’t like the way it trained Saturday morning.
I’ve never bet ante-post on the Hennessy before, and I haven’t started yet. Trepidation.
Does that mean that Frankie will switch to Crime Scene? Surely better with an Aussie jockey anyway? I’ve now got Mourilyan [still keep spelling it wrong] Warringah, Munsef, Daffodil and Ista Kareem. Low to middle draw. [Thought I’d add Ista Kareem to my geriatric list].
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Zipping just injured in the gates. He’s a massive doubt for Tuesday.
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Efficient out this morning. Smoke and mirrors just became a tidal wave.
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Reports just coming in that Viewed was galloped on during what looked to be a lovely bit of public schooling.
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Viewed injury now reported as very minor with vets already passing him for Tuesday. Zipping has the all clear at this stage but I wouldn’t be backing him with a bankers cash.
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Ok stable now quoted as not paying up for Zipping.
Wow; looks as if all my ante post horses are actually running [this is a first!]. May be tempted to have another small ew on Ista Kareem now that he has gone out to 100/1 with, I assume, a bad draw along with the fact that he hasn’t a chance in hell of winning…[the logic being that I am still searching for the elusive 100/1 winner]. Mourilyan has the perfect draw, but so does Alcopop [was he really a cattle pony? what an amazing story it would be for him to win]. Perhaps Roman Emperor would have been the best ante post I could have had, but his price has gone now, anyway.[given that the first two home for the past 6 years have been drawn between 7 and 14, are there any huge priced horses that could get a place?]
This race has been a bit of a disaster for me , but that ain’t surprising as I knew nothing about aussie racing before September.
These sums might change, as I’m not sure how much I’ve got coming back on void bets for horses balloted out.
I’ve got 4 horses that I haven’t backed, including both the favourites.
Viewed
-£227.80
Alcopop
-£227.80
Daffodil
-£227.80
Allez Wonder
-£227.80I’ve got 2 horses that are small losses.
Master OReilly
-£36.10
Ista Kareem
-£7.80The other 18 are winners, unfortunately nearly all small.
Cest La Guerre
£76.20
Fiumicino
£340.60
Mourilyan
£1.96
Roman Emperor
£112.02
Crime Scene
£1,494.30
Munsef
£148.70
Zavite
£541.20
Harris Tweed
£412.20
Kibbutz
£32.20
Newport
£252.20
Warringah
£209.20
Gallions Reach
£1,416.50
Spin Around
£392.20
Basaltico
£80.60
Capecover
£252.20
Shocking
£10.20
Changingoftheguard
£36.98
Leica Ding
£186.20I’d like to do an analysis to find out how much my bets would cost to put on at current prices, but I no longer have Excel.
In addition, I have the following place bets (1, 2, 3):-
£3.38 @ 48 Fiumicino
£3.63 @ 16 Mourilyan
£16.44 @ 11 Roman Emperor
£2.77 @ 19.5 Warringah
£8.47 @ 13.5 Leica Ding£3.00 lost, or maybe will be refunded
Anyway this is my last post on this thread as I’m distracted by other matters.
I’m not too keen to have any bets on the Hennessy.
Wonder if theres any local interest on Allez Wonder; low weight, Bart Cummings and a good draw.
Wonder if theres any local interest on Allez Wonder; low weight, Bart Cummings and a good draw.
Allez Wonder is an interesting one, Moe.
The amount of money that came for this one before the Caulfield Cup was very intreguing to say the least.
I think we’ll be suprised which Bart Cummings runner is in the mix in the final furlong. In my opinion, it could be Allez Wonder!
Who’s watching this live then? Hands up!
*raises hand and states he’s also in work at 9am*
Bit concerned that Mourilyan is drifting a bit with oddschecker. Have just been looking at some of his old races, and, apart from this high knee action that is a worry, I can just see him weaving his way through the field. It’s going to be a long night, tomorrow, but they’re used to me crawling into work half asleep on MC day! So determined not to have any more bets, but Allez Wonder is tempting at that price and with that draw etc.[ I have to be at work 7.45!]
Changingoftheguard is suffering from
ennui
, so they’ve brought him to the Flemington stables 24 hrs early to be in the company of other horses and buzz him up!
Here is a free card with ratings for the entire meeting:
Courtesy of Betfair – http://www.betfair.com.au/racing_pdf/flem_03nov09.pdf
It’s also in the rules section of the day or race market.
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