Melbourne Cup 2009

Absolutely no harm in asking at all mate and I for one only know what I read about Aussie horses. Be glad to hear what anyone has to say with regards to how they see the race or how the Aussie bookies are betting on it. I only know about Rebel Raider because he’s in the betting and I found a video of his last race.

My own opinion of Rebel Raider is mixed.
The 5 career wins from 16 starts have group 1 races involved which is great.
The down side is the 7 unplaced runs have on occasion been woeful.
The Victoria Derby (12 furlongs) win was at 100/1 and he beat "Whobegotyou" into second. While I believe Whobegotyou is a superstar I feel he is best suited at distances of 10 furlongs or less, so it was no surprise he failed to show his normal acceleration at the end of 2500 metres. This also has me questioning the strength of this years derby.

The Adelaide Derby win was very impressive but this race has been a poor guide with Melbourne Cup hopefuls.
Therefore IMO Rebel Raider should be about 25/1 and no more than an outside chance to win.

Last Years winner "Viewed" will carry far more weight and with all due respect to Aiden O’brien, his tactics not only killed the chances of his own runners but also places doubt over the result.

Efficient clearly has the class, but with injury and lack of racing must place some doubt on his chances, not to mention he also will be weighted highly.

C`est la Guerre i feel has the most improvement of the locals and should be close to favorite.

Profound Beauty is racing extra well and must be rated highly.

Changingoftheguard obviously has respect but I doubt he will still be competitive come November, being a young horse it is hard to hold good form.

The following facts about Schiaparelli have mostly been overlooked.

Here is the proof, and Frankie said as much after Schiaparelli’s win on sunday, quote "Dettori said: "The competition did fall apart a bit in this race but Schiaparelli is a much better horse on good to soft ground."

Good Ground – 13 starts, 9 wins (4 at group1), 1 second (group 1), 1 third (group 2), twice unplaced (group1 and group 2), wins 69%, placed 85%, unplaced 15%.

Good to soft – 2 starts, no wins, 1 second (group 1), no third placing, 1 unplaced ( Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1)), Wins 0%, placed 50%, unplaced 50%.

Soft – 1 start, third group 2, (comment in running states – "Set slow pace, headed 2f out, kept on") leading with a slow pace Schiaparelli should have won easily if he was truly suited on the slow surface.

Heavy – 2 starts, 2 wins, 1 win his first start in a 2k race, other win group 2 race with Schiaparelli starting even money favorite! The second horse "Poseidon Adventure" has a record of 50% placed in slow/heavy and 60% placed on better going. The third horse "Oriental Tiger" was a maiden at 16/1 at the time. The win was more about the form, class and toughness of Schiaparelli than his ability on heavy ground. Schiaparelli has earned triple the prize money of the runners behind him in this race.

I have read about the hoof problem of past years and understand the teams concern. But he is racing back to his best and as a 6yo stallion should take each race like it may be his last.

Not to insult his previous German trainer, but my mail is he is just a run of the mill trainer. Godolphin should be able to get the best from this horse with all their knowledge.

The win of Mourilyan at Goodwood on Saturday was very good.
I have read he might be bound for America.

The turn of foot he has shown in his current campaign has been eye catching to say the least.
A line could be drawn through his performances and " All the Good" at this time last year and a Caulfield Cup would not be beyond his current ability.

Unfortunately Mourilyan has not entered for the Caulfield Cup so if he was to come to Australia the 2 miles of the Melbourne Cup is his race. I am unconvinced his turn of foot would be as effective in this race. Many fast finishers have had their sprint finish dulled in the Melbourne Cup.

What a shame he was not entered in the Caulfield Cup where his chances would have been far better!

Hope he heads this way though as he clearly is racing very well.

As luck would have it we can preview this link to see the international runners weight’s for the Melbourne Cup.

A day before the official release.

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/p_Inte … files.aspx

Click on your horse to see the weight allotted.

The South Australian trained 2008 VRC Victoria Derby, and 2009 SA Derby, winner

Rebel Raider is out of further spring racing after a bone chip

in a rear fetlock joint was discovered after trackwork on Wednesday.
Co-trainer Leon Macdonald confirmed on Thursday that an operation was required and that would mean that the four-year-old Reset entire would miss the spring, and he was doubtful about an autumn campaign as well after Rebel Raider not adapting to the Sydney way of the racing in his 2009 autumn racing.
Macdonald said that the injury was noticed after Rebel Raider’s trackwork on Wednesday and subsequent x-rays showed the bone chip. It was expected that surgery would be undertaken to remove the chip.
“I do not think that there is any doubt that he will recover fully from it, especially being a hind leg, but it has just come at a bad time,” said Macdonald on Sport 927.
“There is still a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and the Melbourne Cup, we all know that, but you do not very often get into a race where you think you might have a chance,” he said.
Macdonald said that if Rebel Raider had ‘run and won well’ then an international campaign would have been considered.
But that this would now be also on hold with Macdonald saying that the horse would have had to prove himself before any such campaign. Connections were considering a possible trip taking in the Dubai World Cup meeting in Dubai, and then onto England.
Rebel Raider was quoted at $21.00 for the BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m), and he was second equal with Viewed and Efficient (NZ) on $14, behind Irish mare Profound Beauty on $11.00 for the Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m).
His opening race of the spring was in the listed Penny Edition over an unsuitable 1400m on August 22nd, with a third the result, and that will be the extent of this year’s campaign. Already a dual Group 1 winner after his Victoria and SA Derby wins, Rebel Raider also has the Group 3 Sires’ Produce over 1600m, and listed Chairman’s Stakes over 2000m, both at Morphettville, to his credit.
Overall Rebel Raider’s race record to-date is 16 races for five wins and four placings, with stakes of $1.3m.