Grand National 2009

And how many of the 40 have run over 4m 4f? What of those that haven’t like Irish Invader say. Do you think he will stay. What about State Of Play. Do you think he will stay 4m 4f and what do you base your theory on? It is a unique distance and one where the pedigree can tell you a lot more than supposed notions or ideas where the only thing you can base whether or not they will stay is how they ran over a 1.5 miles shorter than they encounter now. More so than any other NH race the GN is where pedigree can be very informative if you take the trouble to study it and for many it is another very useful string to one’s bow – not the be all and end all but very useful.

What I was trying to infer was that pedigree analysis would be of far greater relevance to a race such as the 7.35 at Gowran Park tonight. Where there is plenty of form to look at I don’t think it is particularly significant to unearth Grand National winners about three generations back in a pedigree.

At the preview last night Butlers Cabin was tipped a few times; I’m very bemused by this horse and can’t understand why he’s one of the favourites, even more so if it’s because McCoy is riding him [give me a Graham Lee or Timmy Murphy in this sort of race]. Reaching a point where I’ve studied the horses so much I’m getting confused, but what would annoy me would be if one of the hoses that I have no time for at all wins eg Butlers Cabin, Hear the Echo, Souther Vic, Himalayan Trail etc.

we were having a laugh with one of our pets who put paw on l’ami and then on himilayan trail for seconf choice

I’m on Rambling Minster, Cornish Sett, Parson’s Legacy and Kilbeggan Blade…Got Comply last year, never got two in a row

see my list in grand national weights final 40 and reserves

vf

I’ve been a My Will fan since the weights were published (see ‘Grand National Weights’ thread) and managed to get 20s.

He jumps well, stays well, has that touch of class and hasn’t had a hard season.

I’ll back two more on the day.

The more I look at him, the more I fancy State Of Play to run a huge race. He won well here over the Mildmay fences last year and also has that touch of class. Again, he jumps, stays and this has been his target all season.

Rambling Minster should also run a big race. He also stays, jumps and comes into the race in good form. James Reveley was more than a passenger when Endless Power won over these fences in November.

He gives anything he rides maximun confidence and very few can present a horse at an obstacle better – lofty praise, but this lad is going places.

Three obvious selections – not very original, but the ground should ensure that a classy individual claims the prize this year.

Done my £2 win on these three might as well cross them off your list last of the big spenders I know

Hear the Echo / Irish Invader / Himilayan Trail – I quite fancy the last one
Above all I hope they all come back safe and sound

I’ve gone for State Of Play as my main bet. If he can jump round I think he’ll go close off his current mark because he has a bit of class about him.

I’ve had savers on both Offshore Account and Irish Invader but I’d say these are more sentimental rather than purely logical bets! Offshore Account did me a big favour when he won the staying novice chase at Punchestown in 07. If he comes back to that form he could be very attractively handicapped but he has had plenty of problems in the interim. I’ve also followed Irish Invader over the last few years with a fair degree of success so I couldn’t desert him here. Obviously stamina is a complete unknown with him but he was running a big race in the Kerry National at Listowel back in September when falling three out.

Mick Fitzgerald has just mentioned all 3 of my picks

Anyone seen Rambling Minsters jockey? He looks about 9