- This topic has 673 replies, 87 voices, and was last updated 15 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
The ground in 2007 was pretty fast by recollection (that was round about the start of the big heatwave) and its pretty fair to expect he wouldnt have liked it that fast, as many of them didnt, and for one who has ran so well over 3m7f on soft ground at cheltenham in a decent enough time, it would be fair enough to expect that he would actually have little stamina worries when it comes to 4m4f round aintree on good ground.
The only concern with him would be his ability to handle that better surface on the day, however it is not a case of "someone somewhere" backing L’Ami, when that sort of support comes in for JP McManus horse, its pretty fair to expect it’s "McManus somewhere".
Havent backed him for this but would give him plenty enough respect, especially as this is the first time he’s contested the national in the hands of Enda Bolger, McCoy being on Butlers is hardly a concern regarding L’ami chances though.
I am tempted by War of Attrition – on good ground, IF he retains much of his old ability he could fight out the finish. He is going to be single figure odds on the day IMHO if the ground is decent.
I also think Big fella Thanks could enjoy this unique test – as long as he jumps, of course (oops!). He’s under 11 stone.
Zip
I now seem to be down to Rambling Minster, Kilbeggan Blade and Brooklyn Brownie; but fear that my little band of English warriors will, no doubt be under siege from the Irish invaders..including Irish Invader……
im keen on rambling minster, state of play, kilbeggan blade, my will
and the horse i dreamt about winning black apalachi
If l’Ami wins this I’ll pack the game in- horses that flop in a National don’t come back to win it. My guess is it’s some ill-informed tipping line inspired plunge, combined with people thinking JP is on and following the money. Would like a bit of 4/6 that AP will ride Butler’s Cabin who has a much better chance.
I’ll probably not be backing L’Ami either, as have never really taken to him as a horse, but may reconsider slightly if the ground isnt too fast, however I do suspect that his support is fairly genuine. With the amount of money that is already in this market, with several gambles already down, I’d expect it has taken some amount of money to cause such a shift and for it to happen that quickly, it doesnt really have the look of a tipping line and jump on gamble to it. The bookies look to have taken a hammering today on this horse and I’d expect they really dont want him to win.
IMO McCoy will almost definitely ride Butlers Cabin, I’m surprised there is even a market open on it, let alone 4/6 about it. But King Johns Castle went well last year for second in McManus’s colours minus mccoy, and its not completely unthinkable that l’ami could be up to doing something, as he isnt too high in the weights and seems to have improved for the shift from doumen to Enda Bolger. I personally think his jumping should be better than last year and if the ground isnt as fast as 2007, he’s not without a chance.
I’ll hold off for now I think and see what happens with the ground next week…
If l’Ami wins this I’ll pack the game in- horses that flop in a National don’t come back to win it
. My guess is it’s some ill-informed tipping line inspired plunge, combined with people thinking JP is on and following the money. Would like a bit of 4/6 that AP will ride Butler’s Cabin who has a much better chance.
Little Polveir?
If l’Ami wins this I’ll pack the game in- horses that flop in a National don’t come back to win it. My guess is it’s some ill-informed tipping line inspired plunge, combined with people thinking JP is on and following the money. Would like a bit of 4/6 that AP will ride Butler’s Cabin who has a much better chance.
The majority of GN winners have won at their first attempt but Highland Wedding,Rag Trade,Little Polveir and Hedgehunter to name but four all won after "flopping" in previous years so you can never be certain.
Hedgehunter in particular looked as though four and a half miles was beyond him when he fell at the last in 04i’ve had an each way on Darkness. Has got a top racing post topspeed figure last time out when McCoy rode him. Was a good horse year or so ago and seems to be at the top of his game – don’t think he’d want it soft though. 40/1 ew is good value to me, albeit you never know about how they take to the fences and he’s not the best jumoer in the world – you never know
pretty disappointed about Character Building; not just because he was one of my original bets at a good price but, having watched his career with interest I was excited at the thought of seeing him finally attack those fences in the way that I dreamed he might, and really thought that the sight of him and Rambling Minster battling it out at the end would have been something to savour. I am, however confused about the fact that at the start of the week there was talk about him being sold [rumour being to JP with McCoy to ride] then his price started to drift and we are now told he has had a problem for several days. It makes no difference to me because I backed him ages ago, but people who have backed him recently, knowing that he was a definate runner must be annoyed. However, pettiniess aside, I do hope he runs a blinder in whichever National he does contest, Irish or Scottish, and at least he lives to fight another day [my initial thought when I saw he’d been taken out of the market being that something bad had happened to him due to the ‘curse of mo’s ante post bets’ eg Bettys Boy, Nil Desperandum and several others].
Hedgehunter in particular looked as though four and a half miles was beyond him when he fell at the last in 04
Only because of the way he was ridden.
Looks like Darkness may be a nr..not sure whats happening…phew…he’s back on the market…..thought he was doing a Character Building on me.
I’m already on Butlers Cabin at 25s, backed it straight after last years race.
I like the look of My Will as the race approaches too.
Too much weight for me, and I am yet to see Paul nicholls as a trainer who has the regime honed enough to train a winner in this unique race. Butlers has a chance but realistically his circumstances were more favourable last year. Rambling minster takes the best form and profile into this race and has a terriffic jumping record. I can’t have SOP around Aintree either. RM for the win, my will may place.
I really don’t want P Nicholls to win this race; he admits himself that it isn’t high on his agenda of races that he wants to win and that My Will is the first horse that he has specifically targeted at the race. Winning this would mean so much to people like the Reveleys, and nobody deserves it more than Mary Reveley.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.