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What about the Busted link with Irish Invader, KC? I’m worried that there may be a touch of the Slim Pickings about him.
Offshore Account is from a formidable NH family – he is a half brother to Distant Thunder, The Listener and Fork Lightning none of which truly stay/stayed beyond 3m 2f.
That’s because their dam, Park Breeze, is by Strong Gale so you can file this one under "Won’t stay" and I say that with some confidence.
I wouldnt be 100% convinced, the horse has already got a fast paced 3miles on good ground. I usually tend to go for horses with too much stamina in this race, and with the quicker ground that usally comes up they are left trailing one paced, so this year Im going for a few with a bit more speed about them, and this one looks to have just about enough speed/stamina. Didnt make a bad comeback run in a heavy ground 3mile hurdle recently either. Plus his sire Oscar won the 4 miler on good ground at cheltenham fairly easily with Tricky Trickster. At 50-1 I still think he’s worth a shot at this.
The dam is where most of the stamina comes from and this combined with a stout sire is what you need for a marathon chaser. Park Breeze does not possess the required stamina – I don’t get everything right that’s for sure – but I cannot be more certain with regards to Offshore Account. As you have brought up Tricky Trickster you will know that he was aided by his dam having two Grand National winning sires in her immediate pedigree, it was not down to his sire, Oscar. 50/1 will look small come 4:30 next Saturday!!!
moehat
Well did you know that Irish Invader is actually very closely related to Supreme Novice hurdle winner Go Native – well you do now but that doesn’t tell you much I know. There is nothing really in his bloodline that suggests he will get four miles. His sire has not produced a winner over four miles and really the only thing going for him from a pedigree perspective is indeed, as you mentioned, the influence of Busted in his dam. Busted was responsible for the sires of Seagram, Rough Quest and Silver Birch but as to whether this in itself will enable Irish Invader to stay is unlikely.
He’s also a year too young for my liking, but I did read somewhere that Mr Mullins has had a bit of a plan with this horse for a while; while he’s not one that I have backed as yet, he’s one of the ‘niggly’ ones…….[they do your head in, the niggly ones…I also like his name!!]
king johns castle to miss national due to suffering an overreach and the cut to back of his tendon which has been slow to heal
Roll Along seems to be out of the betting, but it was pretty certain he wasn’t going to run anyway; pity because I really fancied him till the weights started to go up; a lot of money going on Kilbeggan Blade.
The dam is where most of the stamina comes from and this combined with a stout sire is what you need for a marathon chaser. Park Breeze does not possess the required stamina – I don’t get everything right that’s for sure – but I cannot be more certain with regards to Offshore Account. As you have brought up Tricky Trickster you will know that he was aided by his dam having two Grand National winning sires in her immediate pedigree, it was not down to his sire, Oscar. 50/1 will look small come 4:30 next Saturday!!!
My thoughts on it are the listener gets 3 miles on heavy. admittedly though have always thought the listener has a tendency to steal it from the front at a slow pace. But being by Roselier, the listener doesnt really handle better underfoot conditions, so staying further than 3 miles on a better surface isnt really for him, however with this one being by oscar he does handle better ground, and so staminawise I would expect him to still be travelling OK by about 3m4f (if his jumping is good), what he does after that is what remains unknown, but that is the case with many in the field, and at 50-1 I dont mind not knowing that. If he stays on his feet I think he’ll go well for a long way in this.
Offshore Account stated to be a doubtful runner by Charlie Swan in the Post today, so back him with a run if you fancy him (I don’t)
Oh well, War Of Attrition appears to have shortened enough anyway, still shortening, Butlers Cabin still the same for now. Southern Vic really interests me aswell. May get a little bet on him, with OA doubtful. Would be happy with those three.
updated list –
16-0431F CLOUDY LANE 9-11-07 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
1/1//2110-4 AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-06 E McElroy, Linda Shanahan, Sue Magnier Noel Meade IRE
23/-1132 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-06 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
61U1F234 CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 9-11-05 Frances Duffin Tom Mullins IRE
332-56F2 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-05 Quayside Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
16UP-100 KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-11-04 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies
P211-P00 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-11-03 David Johnson David Pipe
40-255550 OLLIE MAGERN 11-11-03 Roger Nicholls Nigel Twiston-Davies
20F2-P151 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-11-02 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE
501-556U HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-11-02 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
140-0F10 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-11-02 John D O’Donohue Tom O’Leary IRE
32023/-55 MY WILL (FR) 9-11-01 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
411P/1P/- EUROTREK (IRE) 13-11-00 Paul Green Paul Nicholls
2560-14 STATE OF PLAY 9-10-13 Mr & Mrs William Rucker Evan Williams
2-322U13 BIG FELLA THANKS 7-10-12 Paul Barber & Maggie Findlay Paul Nicholls00-210200 MON MOME (FR) 9-10-11 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
F/02421/-0 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-11 Brian Walsh (Co. Kildare) Gordon Elliott IRE
03F-0005 BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-10 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
1111F-00 HOBBS HILL 10-10-10 J P McManus Charles Egerton
1111/U2-2 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-10 Brian Polly Charlie Swan IRE
23/54-1P PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-09 R A S Offer Philip Hobbs
F0612/-P0 REVEILLEZ 10-10-09 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
00146P6P FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-08 Colin Cornes Nigel Twiston-Davies
1/P133/3-0 GOLDEN FLIGHT (FR) 10-10-08 John & Barbara Cotton Nicky Henderson
03F0-4212 L’AMI (FR) 10-10-08 J P McManus Enda Bolger IRE
332-245P BATTLECRY 8-10-07 Trevor Hemmings Nigel Twiston-Davies
P00-F120 CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-07 Peter Hart Paul Nicholls
042-P610 FLEET STREET 10-10-07 Henry Ponsonby Nicky Henderson
1222100 MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-07 Jean-Paul Senechal Francois Cottin FR
63-111314 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-06 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
113P//-3P1 DARKNESS 10-10-06 Lady Lloyd-Webber Charles Egerton
F323111 IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-06 Sackcloth & Ashes Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
46-56511 RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-06 The Lingdale Optimists Keith Reveley
5F/-06U343 SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-06 Brenda Graham Ted Walsh IRE
P641PPP ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-05 Mr & Mrs Peter James Douglas Peter Bowen
PPP611/-PP HOT WELD 10-10-04 Simon Hubbard Rodwell Ferdy Murphy
20P-1112 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-10-04 K Doocey & Mrs A Doocey Tom George
4124021 BROOKLYN BROWNIE (IRE) 10-10-03 P Gaffney & Neil Stevenson Malcolm Jefferson
P/3-143301 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-10-03 Mrs E Wright John Quinn
P-2P6006 CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-03 Kings Syndicate Jimmy Mangan IRE
1-P504P0 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-10-03 Mark Gittins Jimmy Mangan IRE
26U-3443 TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-10-03 Lucy Donegan Tom Taaffe IRE
3/00010-0 ARTEEA (IRE) 10-10-02 Judith Wilson David Pipe
0P/50PP-0 CERIUM (FR) 8-10-02 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy
050-2403 IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-10-02 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
0F2U6-P0 KELAMI (FR) 11-10-02 Halewood International Ltd Lisa Williamson
0/232P5/- ZABENZ (NZ) 12-10-02 Sarah Hobbs Philip Hobbs
PP541PP ICE TEA (IRE) 9-10-01 Sandicroft Stud Donald McCain Jnr
2U41U-02 MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-10-01 Jane Williams Nick Williams
211-1113 COMPANERO (IRE) 9-10-00 W M G Black & Sue Johnson Howard Johnson
0333P0P IRON MAN (FR) 8-10-00 Roddy Owen & Paul Fullagar Peter Bowen
P2P-P0PP MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-10-00 Banouche Stud Ireland Ltd Noel Meade IRE
U44P-3140 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-10-00 Graham Regan Bob Buckler
0U01344 POMME TIEPY (FR) 6-10-00 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
101PP6- BAGAN (FR) 10-9-13 The Centaur Group Partnership VII Martin Todhunter
11P1-3PFP BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-13 New Club Ladies Nigel Twiston-Davies
140-306F BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-13 M Tedham Andrew Turnell
64P3-015 DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-13 Gigginstown House Stud Paul Nolan IRE
P2P63-52 FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-13 Andrew Flintoff & Paul Beck Venetia Williams
4B0-4000F PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-13 Thomas Mooney Partnership Tony Martin IRE
3/2F01P- IN THE LOOP (IRE) 11-9-12 Ben-Hill Syndicate Roy Wilson IRE
P121-P50 KING HARALD (IRE) 11-9-12 Piers Pottinger & P B-J Partnership Mark Bradstock
P00-P304 NADOVER (FR) 8-9-12 George Storey Charlie Mann
2/223F0- PAK JACK (FR) 9-9-12 The Pak Jack Partnership Richard Phillips
421101 SEYMOUR WELD 9-9-12 Charles Pogson Charles Pogson
22/-22P43 NINE DE SIVOLA (FR) 8-9-11 The DPRP Sivola Partnership Ferdy Murphy
210123-P TOM SAYERS (IRE) 11-9-11 Capt Bill Edwards-Heathcote Philip Hobbs
0-321230 OODACHEE 10-9-09 Modreeny Syndicate Charlie Swan IRE
12366/-4 KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 9-9-08 Conor Clarkson Tom Taaffe IRE
62P-30P0 DUN DOIRE (IRE) 10-9-07 Dunderry Racing Syndicate Tony Martin IRE
02P-P4F0 LE TOSCAN (FR) 9-9-07 Judith Wilson David Pipe
U1-52541 OUT THE BLACK (IRE) 11-9-07 James Drummond Philip Hobbs
0P0/03-03P PUNTAL (FR) 13-9-07 Terry Neill David Pipe
P4220-0P WITHOUT A DOUBT 10-9-07 Malcolm Denmark Carl Llewellyn
1P1F//PP-0P YOU’RE SPECIAL (USA) 12-9-06 Diane O’ Rourke Ferdy Murphy
21/-2426U ALEXANDERTHEGREAT (IRE) 11-9-05 Six Blokes Venetia Williams
5/5400-P0 MILAN DEUX MILLE (FR) 7-9-05 Judith Wilson David Pipe
41/F400-23P SANDHURST (IRE) 9-9-02 John Duddy Edgar Byrne IRE
5/6P0-42P LORD KILLESHANRA (IRE) 10-9-01 G F Gingell Colin Tizzard
U-2130U63 LYSANDER (GER) 10-9-01 The Piranha Partnership Ian Williams
4213140P MALKO DE BEAUMONT (FR) 9-9-01 David Sturdy Alan Brown
P06-350FP PASS ME BY 10-8-13 Paul Beck Suzy Smith
1110PP MONT MISERE (FR) 13-8-12 Judith Wilson Paul MurphyJohn Quinn has had terrible luck with this horse. He’s showed so much patience with the horse. He did very well to win a hurdle race early on and winning at Cheltenham was a huge bonus on the way to his main target.
I see he may now fo to Ireland or Ayr. I hope it’s the latter as Jonjo more likley to go for the Whitbread if anywhere with Witchita Lineman than run him over 4 miles. The Scottish National may end up being the easier race of the two and the wiser choice.
L’ami’s price tumble is absolutley alarming – not because we should read something into it from a "well someone somewhere must know this horse is going to run well" angle but from a "My God weren’t people watching the same race as me when he conked out like he’d been shot in 2007?" kind of angle.
Now I hope no one now throws that old chestnut at me – you know the one – the one that goes well he’s older now so he is more likely to stay the trip. Poppycock! He didn’t stay then because he just doesn’t get 4m 4f and being two years older won’t help him to stay one yard further than he did then. I hope no one on here has followed the money today but you are all quite learned so I don’t suppose you have, so well done.
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