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so far i like
my will
state of play
black appalachi (i dreamt he’d win in december)
rambling minstervf
i am thinking about war of attrition
i did like cloudy lane, he will prob end up top weight, but then again he is a horse who can carry the weightNothing really stands out for me at the moment, if forced to pick at the moment i’d have Silver Birch Each Way looking at it personally i think the national he won was a lot better than this one & I also like Knowhere again e.w, thought he was going well last year until falling.
On a side note, anyone no much about Musica Bella never heard of the horse myself but noticed it will get a run if it goes for the race ?
Nothing really stands out for me at the moment, if forced to pick at the moment i’d have Silver Birch Each Way looking at it personally i think the national he won was a lot better than this one & I also like Knowhere again e.w, thought he was going well last year until falling.
On a side note, anyone no much about Musica Bella never heard of the horse myself but noticed it will get a run if it goes for the race ?
Whats your opinion on Silver Birch’s last run, Danny?
He looked to be going really well over the hurdles last week (possibly too well) before tailing off. Definitely not a 40-1 shot in my book
Nothing really stands out for me at the moment, if forced to pick at the moment i’d have Silver Birch Each Way looking at it personally i think the national he won was a lot better than this one & I also like Knowhere again e.w, thought he was going well last year until falling.
On a side note, anyone no much about Musica Bella never heard of the horse myself but noticed it will get a run if it goes for the race ?
Whats your opinion on Silver Birch’s last run, Danny?
He looked to be going really well over the hurdles last week (possibly too well) before tailing off. Definitely not a 40-1 shot in my book
I’d agree with that ran quite well for his first run back after injury, probably needed the run and i don’t think he was given to harder a ride, if he gets a clear round at Aintree 40s looks great value for a place.
Looking back at his race noticed Offshore Account who finished second has an entry in the National, if he were to take the fences could be another interesting one at a big price. Ran in the Betfair so connections clearly think highly of the horse, likely to have a nice weight and given the record the Irish have in the race he’s another one i’d be interested in at the current price.
I’ve had many many little £2 bets in the win and TBP market in the months leading up to the race and I do have some massive prices but it has to be said mainly on those that aren’t quite at the head of the market (the Hot Weld’s, the Priests Leaps, the Brooklyn Brownie’s etc) except one and I have a bit more than £2 (!) at 120’s on Rambling Minster and 18’s in the TBP market. But that is more of my heart talking as the horse is a half brother to my cousin’s horse, Lord Rodney, who sadly died in the Topham a couple of years ago.
You can pick holes, as is always the case, in a lot of those at the head of the market. My Will is there at the very front of the market, I believe, because he seems to be a "safe" bet. He runs consistently without actually ever winning anything. His sire has had a dual placed Irish National horse (Marcus Du Berlais) so there’s no reason why he should not see the trip out, he jumps well too – he ticks a lot of boxes – but I feel more as a placed horse rather than the winner.
Once we know what the ground is going to be then that is the time to really spend the cash. One thing I would say is that if it is good ground then I do believe that Ferdy will be sending out a completley different Hot Weld to the one we’ve seen. Reportedly working well at home and doing a lot of it, so I just hope he gets his ground.
So far have only had a couple of ticklers:
Offshore Account at 140 and laid off at 50
Simon – non runner – at 46
Parsons Legacy at 46The last couple of years I’ve had a really strong fancy by now – it was Bewleys Berry last year and McKelvey the year before, but nothings really said have a good punt yet this year.
Just done my bets
Coral
£1 E/W@33/1 Kilbeggan Blade
£1.50 E/W@25/1 War Of AttritionMY BIG PUNT
– £10 Win@14/1
Rambling Minster
BETFAIR
TBP
– £2.50 State Of Play@5/1
£2.50 Cornish Sett@11/1TO WIN
– £2.50 State Of Play@22/1
£2.50 Cornish Sett@64/1
Interesting that Graham Lee [my favourite jockey] is riding Kilbeggan Blade and not Hot Weld; I think I’ll be a bit aggrieved if Hot weld runs well in the National having backed him at Cheltenham; I know he’s said to be a spring horse etc etc but to pull up twice and then win would be a bit off; however, didn’t he do the same when he won the Scottish National?
Interesting that Graham Lee [my favourite jockey] is riding Kilbeggan Blade and not Hot Weld; I think I’ll be a bit aggrieved if Hot weld runs well in the National having backed him at Cheltenham; I know he’s said to be a spring horse etc etc but to pull up twice and then win would be a bit off; however, didn’t he do the same when he won the Scottish National?
He pulled up twice Mo, raced at Carlisle for a prep, then won th Scottish National@Ayr, but I like Ferdy Murphy horses, and he’s one I’ve been monitoring sinc liking the sound of him in ‘One Jump Ahead 08’
At 10 a nice age too.War of Atrittion being cut in with most firms today, has he been pricewised or something?
War of Atrittion being cut in with most firms today, has he been pricewised or something?
Must have been!
Only article outside of Pricewise that I could imagine the prompted shortening is the trainer stating this could be his best ever chance (as a trainer) of winning the national.
He’s going to be fresh going into it thats for sure. Whats his weight? Anyone know?
Running off 157 so probably not far off top weight, but even then I think he could be well in on what he is capable of. Since that gold cup where he and hedgehunter pulled clear on quite a fast surface he hasnt had those conditions again since, and the national should throw up very similar race conditions, so if his jumping is good on the day, he should be tricky enough to beat, because think he’s still probably got about 15-20lbs improvement in him, think connections specifically missed the Gold Cup when they saw his rating.
Charlie Swans Offshore Account off 10lbs less also looks to have serious improvement in him, should love trip and ground and looks to have been kept low in the ratings this season for this, so hopefully his jumping is good.
By my calculations War of Attrition will be running off 2lbs below top weight (11st8), can’t see him winning off that mark Hedgehunter was biggest weighted winner in last 25 years and still 7lbs short of that mark! He also hasn’t run anywhere near his best mark from the GC win which was what three years ago now? You’re taking a leap of faith and on trust that he is still capable of running up to that kind of form, which I just can’t do.
One’s I have back so far and don’t plan to back anymore:
Rambling Minster 16pts EW 20/1
Good solid long distance chaser in the form of its life, ticks all the trends boxes very impressive last time out. Should be running off a nice mark around 10’9. Given a clear rounf hard ot see it out of the frame.Himalayan Trail 12pts EW 33/1 & 40/1
Has a very similar profile to Mangan’s last winner Monty’s Pass, proven winner over 4miles, will be just getting warmed up when the non-stayers are giving up. Questionable recent form but taking a leap of faith that the shrewd trainer will have him right on the day. If Barry G. takes the ride has a serious chance he was very positive about him after the Beecher run. Come on Barry you know it makes senseButlers Cabin 8pts WIN 20/1
Has been laid out for this race, proven winner over 4miles and Irish national winner, was travelling like a dream last year before crumpling on landing at Beechers. Negatives is the complete lack of current form but seemed to be coming back to some kind of form last time out in the Kim Muir.Southern Vic 8pt E/W 33/1
I smell a Ted Walsh Papillon style plot with this one, Ruby making encouraging noises about taking the ride too, after last run. Blinkers seemed to improve his dodgy jumping which was a big worry, has the speed and class, stamina a question but Walsh seems convinced it will stay the trip.Character Building 8pts E/W 33/1 & 25/1
Love this horse for the national have been on it for the last two years. Perfectly bred for staying chases, solid jumper and very consistent. Won in some kind of style on the bridle in the Kim Muir off top weight! Usually Chelts winner flop at Aintree but I’ve rarely seen such an easy victory horse barely broke sweat. Seems to have got away with murder in the weights running off 10’6 maximum has a huge chance imo. Although this is my smallest winner it’d be the most enjoyable one for me.Offshore Account is from a formidable NH family – he is a half brother to Distant Thunder, The Listener and Fork Lightning none of which truly stay/stayed beyond 3m 2f.
That’s because their dam, Park Breeze, is by Strong Gale so you can file this one under "Won’t stay" and I say that with some confidence.
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