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Apart from the doubts KC raises about his stamina, Southern Vic isn’t a very good jumper. He’s failed to complete twice in his last 5 chase runs including in the Beecher where the undemanding Canal Turn claimed him.
He put in an awful round of jumping in the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse and even though blinkers seemed to help last time, I wouldn’t like to ride him in a National!I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over Himalayan Trail. I truly believe he just doesn’t have the class to win a National. Because you haven’t yet backed him you’re currently thinking "Oh my God, he’s trained by that bloke who had Monty’s Pass, and he’s won over four miles – easily too – and he’s Irish and he has been campaigned with this race in mind since time began" However, as soon as you do back him the negative thoughts will start to creep in "Well, he looked bloody awful over the fences in November and you can’t blame the ground because he has won on heavy and won the Midlands National (my goodness wasn’t that a very poor renewal) with some juice in the ground, and that Monty’s Pass was infinitely more classy than him so they don’t really compare to one another, and he did win that poor race at Uttoxeter off only 124 and he now has 16lbs more to carry and against superior opposition"
Maybe they bought him, took him home, taught him to jump, entererd him in all the wrong races and got Badgerlaw to run really badly last weekend so as not to frank the form of last years Midlands National….they can’t fool me!
Apart from the doubts KC raises about his stamina, Southern Vic isn’t a very good jumper. He’s failed to complete twice in his last 5 chase runs including in the Beecher where the undemanding Canal Turn claimed him.
He put in an awful round of jumping in the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse and even though blinkers seemed to help last time, I wouldn’t like to ride him in a National!Snowy Morning is a terrible jumper but still got 3rd last year. While I’m less confident about Southern Vic than I was when the weights came out, he jumped well enough last time and with Big Fella, My Will plus what ever Mullins will run all over looked by Walsh, one can’t help but wonder why.
Read around a bit and cant explain why, but currently I’m leaning towards Cornish Sett/State Of Play. Anyone got any views on this?
Who you having a punt at?
I like:
Butlers Cabin 11-1
War Of Attrition 33-1
Offshore Account 50-1If there was enough cut I’d have a go on Eurotrek too at100-1, as by recollection it was quite fast and he didnt act when he rana stinker before.
but then again, I’m terrible with trying to pick the national…
I’ve never won this race. It’s one of the few big races I’ve never won IMO the closest I came is probably one of the closest AP came to winning too (Clan Royal).
However…..this year lets put that right
I’m already on Butlers Cabin. Think this has a fantastic chance and has been showing that early spark this season as if it’s ready for a very big race. Was going well last time before coming down.
Rambling minster, butlers cabin, southern vic, himilayan trail Brooklyn brownie. In that order.
Am I missing something with Southern Vic?
He seems like he barely stays 3 and a half miles, let alone 4+ round Aintree!
He’s run out of steam twice now over 3 and a half this season
I’ve never won this race. It’s one of the few big races I’ve never won IMO the closest I came is probably one of the closest AP came to winning too (Clan Royal).
However…..this year lets put that right
I’m already on Butlers Cabin. Think this has a fantastic chance and has been showing that early spark this season as if it’s ready for a very big race. Was going well last time before coming down.
Won it last year, had Comply or Die at 20’s 3 weeks before the race. Felt good
This year particularly seems dependant on how the weather is on the day.
Its hampering my decision really.
Rambling Minister likes it soft, so might stick around till National week to see if its going to rain.
Also, how on earth does Tom Seagal reckon ‘Big Fella Thanks’ A novice for gods sake, can win the thing?
I find this race impossible! State of Play has been mentioned. He looks well-handicapped on his best form. Would I be barking up the wrong tree?
I was really sweet on State of Play before the weights started to creep up; if he was a big chasing type it wouldn’t bother me so much, but I’m still hoping he’ll run a good race..not sure if Cornish Sett had his wind op before or after last years race, because he’s running really well this year, but the blinkers [and trainer] are a worry. I need to rewatch this years Hennessy to see if any horses ran promising races in that..Black Apalachi also worries me because I backed him last year and whenever that happens you enter into ‘Point Barrow Syndrome’, and he jumped the fences brilliantly last time..however, the trainer was emphatic at the time that he needed soft ground. I suppose everyone thinks that they’re doing a Papillon with Souther Vic, and his price is rubbish now. When Montys Pass won Eddie the Shoe had tipped him so I’m hoping that if any Irish horses have slipped under the radar Eddie will point them out the week before the race [a week today!!].
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