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Now, I really don’t understand why Big Fella Thanks is a) challenging for favouritism for the National and b) is evens for the NH Chase. It is absolutely mind boggling to me especially the latter.
He is favourite based on one very good win but what people are forgetting is the effort or lack thereof of his previous race. Can you truly trust this horse? He is seven, has been raised 13lbs for beating some rather exposed types, has had only five competetive races over fences, has failed to complete in one of those (and the fences at Kempton are not exactly awesome) and has consistently made mistakes during his races. These will tell late on even if they don’t early doors. Personally from what I have seen I don’t think he possesses a massive engine and I can see him being very one paced off his current mark.
Is there any one out there that, hand on heart, thinks this horse will win?
I believe pricewise’s longer range horses last year were Cloudy Lane and Chelsea Harbour so I wouldn’t place great faith in him from this far out.
I agree kendal. BFT sounds like a free ride for the bookies to me. I thought the trainer of rambling minsters comment about the horse preferring good ground was interesting after his win this weekend. RM has won on good, G/S and soft ground. More importantly he has carried 11 stone 8 to victory over 4 miles on G/S if memory serves. If RM is coming into form carrying a projected 10 7 in the national I believe this horse is a massive danger. At 20’s still holding up he gets my money.
Can’t remember an 11 year old winning it..that’s what put me off backing him at 40/1 [sob].
Unlike you KC, I reckon Big Fella is still well handicapped and will be hard to beat in the RP chase at the weekend- I’ve backed him to win what looks a very poor renewal. I look forward to laying him out of my winnings for the National afterwards though.
Amberleigh house 12, 2004
red maurader 11, 2001
Royal athlete 12, 1995
Minnehoma 11 1994.That’s 4 over 10 year olds in 15 years or around 28%.
heck; you’re right…I’d got him down as a 9 year old, but I think he was number 9…so much for spending hours working out the ages of the last 50 winners of the race!
I have backed Rambling Minster too. Even though he is 11, is still improving. Usually jumps well these days, won the Agfa Diamond on good going and Blue Square Gold Cup on heavy.
Now on Notre Pere, Simon and Rambling Minster.
Mark
Value Is Everythingand b) is evens for the NH Chase.
I got taken in by that about a horse as well KC. Might have been the same one.
This is probably priced up now, but a couple of days ago, if you looked up the entries for a horse on the RP website, if it was entered for the NH Chase it would have the price Evens next to it.
However, if you visited the odds page for the race, you’d find that they were all priced up as Evens. It must be some default thing to get the race to register.
Oh, I see. Thanks Gerald. What a cracking race the NH Chase is looking to be. There are one or two very dark horses lurking in there that I very much like the look of particularly one of the HJ/Wylie entrants
Howard Johnson has only got two entries in the race, and I don’t think Companero can be described as a dark horse!
Thanks for helping us dimwits out.
Silver Birch has the same weight as 2 years ago . . . he’s came back from injury before and anything can happen in the national
Silver Birch has the same weight as 2 years ago . . . he’s came back from injury before and anything can happen in the national
He has the same weight now but will almost certainly carry more on the day and think he is running off much higher mark so not as easy as last time for him.
That’s probably because he’s due to run in the Bobbyjo Chase tomorrow, but I haven’t checked the final declarations yet.
That’s probably because he’s due to run in the Bobbyjo Chase tomorrow, but I haven’t checked the final declarations yet.
He runs, but shouldn’t his price come in after he’s run well or at least encouragingly?
I have been quite negative about BFT on here, but I believe he ran to form yesterday despite it being too much of a test of speed for him. Doing better than all other hold up horses (bar Possol). Will possibly be better going left-handed, jumped well enough (only one notable error that I saw). Will be much better suited to 4 1/2 miles. Still not convinced about his temperament so have not made him a main bet. 25/1 looks an over reaction by Ladbrokes.
Now on Notre Pere 37/1 and 45/1, Simon 33/1, Rambling Minster 25/1 and Big Fella Thanks 25/1.
Mark
Value Is EverythingBlack Apalachi was pretty impressive yesterday, although he looked quite a small horse compared to Southern Vic and wore cheek pieces [not sure if he usually wears them; didn’t think he did]..one of those annoying horses that I backed last year so find it difficult to miss out this time. Wondered if the mistake knocked the stuffing out of Southern Vic, but he seemed a tired horse anyway.
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