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What kind of handicap will hear the echo have for the national. It seems to have a small bit of backing in one or 2 places.
We had better keep the discussion about individual horses on the main GN thread, but to answer your question:
Denman’s Official rating is likely to be reduced from 182 to 175 or so for the GN.
Hear The Echo currently has a rating of 149.
With Denman on 11-10 (unless as Irish Stamp pointed out Master Minded runs ho-ho-ho) Hear The Echo would be on about 9-12, 2lbs out of the handicap.
Findlay was talking about The National before the Gold Cup last season.
He said to make the most out of Denman Vs Kauto Star because there was a good chance his horse would miss the race next year (2009) for a tilt at The National.
It’s one of those races you can never be too bullish about. I’ve seen countless good ‘park fence’ chasers who fail to take to the big fences. Conversely, I’ve seen many poor jumpers who sail over them – Snowy Morning is a prime example from last year.
I’d love to see him have a crack at it. He’ll have a hard race at Cheltenham – win or lose, so it will be a huge ask to take in both races, not to mention win one or, dare I say, complete the double.
Taking it he is well his heart murmur could be a blessing in disguise. No horse has won the Grand national and the Gold Cup in the same year since Golden Miller back in 1934.
I suppose you could argue the national is an easier race now but it would still be a great achievement.
As Aragorn says he could pull too hard with so many horses round about him but I am sure Ruby will be out to hunt him round in the first 6 or 8 on the 1st circuit and keep him relaxed. If he can do that and then turn the tap on I don’t think they will see he way he went.
Wouldn’t touch Denman for the National until the morning of the race or at least non runner no bet stage and only then if he missed the Gold Cup. On the other hand if he missed the Gold Cup something would surely be up with him, so I wouldn’t want to back him anyway.
For the last two seasons Mr Nicholls has stated that Denman needs time between races as they take a lot out of him and he then has to slowly bring him back. 22 days is no time at all and unless 3 or 4 rivals fell early on in the Gold Cup, he would not have an easy time at Cheltenham even if winning by 12l because of the way he runs and the stress of a big occasion.
Its an entry and something they are considering, but they entered him in a hurdle race at Wincanton 2 weeks ago and considered taking him to Haydock for the Peter Marsh. Why take 10/1 or even the 16s if they existed for a whim about a horse who’s well being we don’t even know about fully yet.
As for the whole weight thing, I can’t see Smith putting him in at 182 because he is obsessed with running as many horses as possible "in the handicap proper", which in itself is false because all he does is drop the top weights and raise the lower ones so they are still running off false marks anyway. That said if I owned the likes of Halcon Generlardais and other staying chasers rated 150 upwards, I’d be looking at the race just in case Denman runs because they may be off the right mark and running off around 10st-10st10lb but other horses that they should be giving 20lb plus only getting a few lbs off them and you should never duck a race, especially a 4m4f handicap chase for fear of 1 horse. I feel sorry for those rated around 130-140 who usually get a low weight but have a few lb in hand as it could spoil it for them.I don’t Stan – The National could do with being won by a decent horse. Since Hedgehunter nothing of any real quality has won it.
Wilson, old boy, have you been snapping up all the Star de Mohaison? I just went to avail myself of some of it, and there was none left (18.5!)
Gerald
Wilson, old boy, have you been snapping up all the Star de Mohaison? I just went to avail myself of some of it, and there was none left (18.5!)
Gerald
Not this Wilson anyway Gerald! be patient his price will rise again just
like himself!Think the Betfair odds might shorten
Star De Mohaison looks good from a form perspective I agree BUT my enthusiasm is tempered somewhat by his sire.
Beyssac has had two runners in the National already and both, whom were not entirely unfancied did not perform well. Both threatened to stay extreme distances without actually being able to go through with it. Of the French sires I have seen this one along with Dom Alco does not seem capable of producing winners over four miles. That’s my humble opinion anyway!
Thanks, KC.
I was just covering the angles, because it was reported in the RP this morning that it would be one of the Nicholls’ horses given an entry, and I thought that as its owned by Sir Robert Ogden its more likely to run than not.
Denman is both bred for the National & Gold Cup. I think I posted elsewhere that he has two GC winning sires (since the 70’s and not including his own sire) in there DAVID JACK ( Davy Lad ’77) and ESCART (L’escargot 70 & 71) and as you can see a Nationnal winning sire (ESCART again) and DAVID JACK (again) the sire of 79 National runner up Zongalero.
Let me tell you – The National means everything to me and I have not been this excited since Prince Rock’s jockey went missing amongst the spruce never to be seen again (!) in ’77.
So Phil Smith proposes/imposes a 24lb weight-range, and will undoubtedly give Denman around 176 maximum (or 6lbs well-in minimum) to encourage him to run.
Isn’t this ‘handicapper’ (and I use the term very cautiously) in danger of making a complete mockery of the Grand National as a handicap steeplechase, if not as an event?
I also note that Denman’s potential participation will cause him to "think a bit". Given he has previously suggested it takes him several days to frame the weights for the National, he can assuredly look forward to an even more taxing workload should Denman get his entry……..presumably over several additional pina colada’s with his thumb remaining firmly up his chorus.
I also note that Denman’s potential participation will cause him to "think a bit". Given he has previously suggested it takes him several days to frame the weights for the National, he can assuredly look forward to an even more taxing workload should Denman get his entry……..presumably over several additional pina colada’s with his thumb remaining firmly up his chorus.
It does beg the question what he’s doing most of the time..
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