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I think he will Gerald I agree. The run behind Mon Mome settled it for them I think. I hope he takes in the Racing Post chase along the way though, as I could see him winning that. The French sires have such a fantastic record over that course and distance when you think of the KG too.
With just 22 days between the Gold Cup and National it would be a big ask.
He has run with an 11 day gap before but that was in novices chases at 2m 2f & 2m 5f. Asking for two top performances, especially with the latter race at top weight, over 3m 2.5f and 4m 4f in three weeks is somewhat different.
Oh don’t get me wrong – I’m not saying he will win but he most definitely can win. It could be like Master Oats all over again and capitulating as if he were shot when looking all over the winner after the third last.
But the hype surrounding this year’s renewal will be unrivaled. Of course we are yet to see that he retains all his ability and the next ponderable for those like me who have not been tempted at a nibble on him just yet is whether you have a go at the current cramped odds pre AON chase or wait and then see him win and have to forget it completely.
I say well done to those who are on big – they are sitting pretty at the moment and I’m insanely jealous of them. I would want him on my side at some of those fancy prices that have gone and I am very scared of going against him.
For the sake of the sport I hope Denman wins the Gold Cup and then goes on to drag top weight through a rain soaked Aintree to a 25 length demolition….. Now that may even put racing on the back page… of the Sun..
So Phil Smith proposes/imposes a 24lb weight-range, and will undoubtedly give Denman around 176 maximum (or 6lbs well-in minimum) to encourage him to run.
Isn’t this ‘handicapper’ (and I use the term very cautiously) in danger of making a complete mockery of the Grand National as a handicap steeplechase, if not as an event?
I also note that Denman’s potential participation will cause him to "think a bit". Given he has previously suggested it takes him several days to frame the weights for the National, he can assuredly look forward to an even more taxing workload should Denman get his entry……..presumably over several additional pina colada’s with his thumb remaining firmly up his chorus.
He has two hats for the race Grassy – one has the horses names and the other has the weights.
So it will go something like this: "Denman" out of one hat and "10-12" out of another and they’ll work from there onwards
I think with how the handicapper slightly compresses the weights then horses of the class of Denman would have an excellent chance in the National. Personally, I would be all over Halcon Genelardais, even more so if Denman turned up. Halcon would surely be in receipt of 10lbs from Denman and given how well he lumps weight around, he’d think he’s running loose off 11-2 or so. Staying would be no problem and jumping isn’t bad either. But not one for ante post, even allowing for the better odds likely to be available.
If Denman arrived at Aintree in anything like his Hennessey/Gold Cup form from last season and the handicapper had him half a stone to the good of his official mark for the National then I reckon anything over 5/1 or 6/1 would be a very backable price.
With just 22 days between the Gold Cup and National it would be a big ask.
He has run with an 11 day gap before but that was in novices chases at 2m 2f & 2m 5f. Asking for two top performances, especially with the latter race at top weight, over 3m 2.5f and 4m 4f in three weeks is somewhat different.
I would agree with you but don’t forget Gold Cup or not, it is likely only to be his second race of the season, which would normally help.
Last year he was put away after the Gold Cup. I know he looked very tired at the end of that race but despite that he looked to have an easier time of it that Kauto Star who went to Aintree.
Was that because there was no race for Denman anywhere or because the Gold up took a lot out of him?
If it was the latter then they have big problems as he is likely to have an even harder race this season if Kauto goes there straighter than he did last year.
I don’t Stan – The National could do with being won by a decent horse. Since Hedgehunter nothing of any real quality has won it.
Depends what you call real quality. Comply or Die was a top class novice who was not beaten far in the sun Allaince and ran well in theHennessy before losing his way. Silver birch certainly had class before his initial injury and they are the last 2 winners. The beauty of handicaps should be that they bring horses or different ability together, but by one horse forcing everybody else out it makes it just another graded race, admittedly with 1 horse at the top giving lumps of weight away.
What you said about backing him.not backing him. I have to ask myself who is the craziest me or the guy who backs him on the day.
I grabbed the price and let’s say it was just for talking sake 200 quid EW at 16/1…………I’m then taking the gamble he will run and finish in the first 4 and 400 quid isn’t the end of the world if he doesn’t run………….nice touch if he wins though. and decent profit if he is placed
If he were to win the Gold Cup by the 12 lengths you talk about he would start the shortest price horse in history and who would be nutty enough to take 5/4 or something about him winning? there are thoisands of 5/4 shots in a season and they doen’t have to give lumps of weight away in a race many regard to be the toughest race in the world to win.
I thinkif anyone wants to bet the horse they should back him now for what they are prepared to lose cos on the day only someone crazy would back him at the crazy price they will offer.
Even if he gest beat 5 lengths by Kato Star with everything else well behind he’ll start very short.
For me I didn’t bet on him winning I bet on him running…….then if he turns up I’ll worry about where he is going to finish.
I was told today by a friend in the uk PN has said he’s not thinking of running him he is definitely running him. Didn’t come from the trainers mouth direct it came from an interview in some kocal rag and I was wondering has anyone read this anywhere?
I sure the papers. and the bbc site, used PNs quotes about entering him for the race with headlines suggesting that he’s a definite runner. He in my book never said that, and the headlines are misleading.
Harry Findlay will defineately want to run "The Force" that can carry 11-10
in the Grand National so long as the horse is well, thats not coming from
any secret sources and defineately not "Grasshopper" but the fact this guy
epitomises what owning a racehorse is all about, and that he is fortunate enough to have one good enough to actually test everything in the race!Harry Findlay will defineately want to run "The Force" that can carry 11-10
in the Grand National so long as the horse is well, thats not coming from
any secret sources and defineately not "Grasshopper" but the fact this guy
epitomises what owning a racehorse is all about, and that he is fortunate enough to have one good enough to actually test everything in the race!If he runs at Aintree and Auteuil he sure is – if not he’s just talking the talk.
Talk is cheap Gwilson and there’s been many a time when trainers and owners have said "we’re targeting X race" and then not run.
Also want to see him take on the best that they have in France (since his three higly rated stablemates are all French-breds you’d think that Nicholls would know that he has to take on the best).
If DENMAN turns up for the Grand National in April it will be in my opinion the closest thing you will get to a ”steering job” at Aintree.
I just feel for the horses health,in saying that Paul Nicholls would not run the horse if there was any danger to his health.
Would love to see him in the race.
If Denman arrived at Aintree in anything like his Hennessey/Gold Cup form from last season and the handicapper had him half a stone to the good of his official mark for the National then I reckon anything over 5/1 or 6/1 would be a very backable price.
The magic odds of late seem to be 5/1 Master Oats West Tip Moorcroft Boy but Denman? Shortest price winner was 11/4 a million years ago
If Denman wins the Gold Cup he will be regarded as even more special than he is now………..you wont get 3/1 about him with the handicapper’s carrot and the hype.
I just can’t see the bookies offering a price where punters could bet him EW………….if they went 5/1 and he won it would be the biggest payout in history.
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