- This topic has 232 replies, 44 voices, and was last updated 15 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
When you analyse european candidates for the Breeders Cup, you must first ask yourself if their respective style will be suited to US racing.
That’s the one hesitation I have about Rip Van Winkle. There’s no denying his talent, but his winning efforts (though not necessarily his best) have come over eight furlongs when prominant and, Sussex Stakes in particular, dominating from some way out.
I simply can’t see him being able to dominate in a strongly run US race, nor do I expect connections to attempt it.
His one attempt at ten furlongs was scuppered only by the best thoroughbred in the world. No shame there, but he came to win his race and, defeat to a superior rival aside, he perhaps failed to truly see out the trip and / or was a little shy in passing a rival at the business end of the race.
I applied the same tactical hypothesis to Henrythenavigator last year and he ran better than I expected, but he was a tough, hardened competitor who found only the late stretch burst of Ravens Pass too hot to handle.
Interesting post Bos.
I think the style of racing in the states will suit the Ripper. He has to be handy over a mile because he stays it very well and he probably does not possess an amazing turn of foot over that trip.
They’ll go hard early in the Classic and hopefully Johnny can settle him mid-div. I don’t think he’ll have to be ridden as handy as he was at Goodwood or Ascot. I think 1m2 will suit him perfectly and he’s a great shout next weekend. I actually think he’s better suited to running in the Classic than Henrythenavigator was.
My only concern is that he sweats up as badly as he did at Epsom.
- Total Posts 17716
Mo
The point is that Sandown poses a very different test to Santa Anita, and that RVW didn’t quite see it out.
If (or more probably, when) he sluices up next Saturday, all that will illustrate is there isn’t nearly the class gulf between STS and RVW that the Eclipse result suggests.
I’ll continue to hypothesise, you continue to believe the course doesn’t make a difference.
- Total Posts 17716
The one thing that gets me is the assumption of most people in the Uk that Zenyatta will have to improve to win.
She’s a model of consistency, undefeated filly of immense talent and like we have often said of Sea the Stars you can only beat what’s in front of you.
Rip Van Winkle who I am a huge fan of ran a stinker in the 2000 Guineas, flattered to deceive in the Derby and hung like a horse who didn’t see out the trip in the Eclipse.
Dropped back to a mile he looked awesome in the Sussex but so he should have in receipt of 8lbs from Paco Boy who I have never thought of as a true Group 1 horse in the Classic sense of the word. He follows that with a defeat of SMS’s Zacinto who either improved 6 lengths or Delegator ran a stinker? At a guess I would think the latter is the more likely as Zacinto was totally unfancied at 18/1 in a 4 horse race.
Rip Van Winkle looks the part and he is a class act but he hasn’t won 13 consecutive races he’s won 2 as a 2 year old and 2 as a 3 year old. Granted he met Sea the Stars 3 times but only once did he look anything like a threat.
NO matter what we think we can’t even be sure Rip Van Winkle would have beaten Raven’s pass let alone how he compares to the best in the USA.
One things for sure: any horse who can give horses, fillies or otherwise 20 lengths of a start and make up the deficit within a furlong then go past them like they were trees is exceptional.
This thing is a monster who eats up ground at gallon a stride, she’s racing on her surface in her country and Rip Van Winkle will have to be everything AOB says he is and everything we assume he is to beat her.
I truly believe that RVW is a serious Group 1 horse and his run in the Eclipse would be easily good enough to take this.
However I have been analysing him a lot in the last couple of days and I have decided that he needs a small field to be seen at his best. Just look at his race record for a start. He has run in fields of > ten on 4 occasions – debut (2nd, awarded the race), Dewhurst (7th – stayed on once in the clear), Guineas (4th – stayed on once in the clear) and The Derby (4th – stayed on once in the clear). The 4 times he has had 10 or less runners he has won well on 3 occasions and finished 2nd to STS in The Eclipse. He’s a horse who has always to my eye looked a bit awkward when he’s needed to be manoeuvred in a race and not had things pan out nicely for him. His 2 wins as a 3yo have both come when he’s simply tracked one pacemaker, and his win as a 2yo was in a 4 runner race. In all 3 cases, everything panned out very nicely for him.
I know this isn’t at all a 100% certain theory. Indeed one could argue that he was simply inexperienced on his debut, ‘not right’ in the Dewhurst’ due to training problems, and again took time to come to hand as a 3yo and that explains defeat in the Guineas and Derby, and so the small field stats are just coincidence. This could be true, but I just think by looking at his way of running (particularly in the Dewhurst and Guineas) I am really starting to believe that he is a slightly ‘timid’ horse that is a star when things go his way but may not be cut out for the hustle and bustle of a big field Group 1 (also look at the way he shy’s away in The Eclipse after getting hit on his nose with Kinane’s whip. Yes I know he got hit, but a lot of horses don’t get put off to the extent that he clearly did). Look at the way he ‘loses’ his two races at Newmarket; as soon as it becomes a battle 2f out and they have to fight for position he gets left behind and he only stays on when he has some clear daylight to run into with 1f to go. I just can’t see him enjoying the experience of the Classic and I think he is one of these horses that simply needs a small field to be seen at his best.
Of course it could be that connections are aware of the above and try to offset it by racing in the front 2 or 3, meaning he won’t have to manoeuvre around horses or fight for position. This could work (and if I were them I would probably do it for the aforementioned reasons), but of course the danger is if he has to chase too hot a pace and leaves himself a sitting duck at the business end of the race.
So in summary, if RVW is held up in mid division amongst traffic in the Classic, I am of the very firm opinion that he will not be winning.
It’s no secret that Ladbrokes know what is going on at Ballydoyle and it’s very interesting to see how they have priced up the stables two main runners for the BC.
In the Classic they are lowest price of any bookmaker on RVW @ 5/4 (horrendous price! Generally a 7/4 shot elsewhere – still a short price in my opinion). In contrast they are easily the biggest price of any bookmaker on Mastercraftsman for the DIrt Mile @ 7/2 (no bigger than 5/2 elsewhere).
This would indicate that team Ballydoyle seriously fancy RVW but don’t like the chances of MCM.
- Total Posts 17716
HH
It’s probably no coincidence that they are also largest on Zenyatta in RVW’s race.
HH
It’s probably no coincidence that they are also largest on Zenyatta in RVW’s race.
Well yes, in fancying one market leader I guess they have to oppose the other market leader. Hence why I took their 6/1 Zenyatta a few days back (5/1 now). I don’t overly fancy Zenyatta but having her on my side at an attractive price seems like the right thing to do.
On the night I’ll actually be looking to oppose both Zenyatta and RVW. I’ll also be opposing horses who don’t have Turf/Pro-ride form so that rules out Summer Bird, Quality Road etc. too. Will therefore be going against the top 4 in the market.
GIO PONTI
is the one I like the idea of most. Has improved no end this year, consistent, solid Grade 1 turf form, won on Pro-ride, 14/1 – what more do you want?
A horse who has no right to win a BC Classic but who I couldn’t rule out is
TWICE OVER
, who will likely be an enormous price in the US. He’s 14/1 here but I could see him being more like 40/1 in the US on the night. He may not be the classiest but he is tough, stays well and has that all important Group 1 turf form.
Zenyatta 6/1, Gio Ponti 14/1, Twice over 30/1+ – I’d be plenty happy enough with that book of bets on the race
- Total Posts 17716
Surely Rip will have to sit in 2nd or 3rd and make his move before the home turn. I notice Zenyatta ran much closer to the pace than the norm in the Lady Secret and she responded well…..actually she had a crap possie on the home turn and looked a bit awkward for a few strides had she been a racing car would have probably spun on the track……I suppose they are thinking they shouldn’t be giving the others the usual start but I’m not so sure they are right…She looked just a little bit like that sudden burst of speed on the home turn emptied the tank.
In other races when she has come from way off the pace by the time she hits the furlong marker she looked like she’s just coming back on the bridle and could take off again. I thought that was missing in her latest start but it’s hard to really tell from the video.
That aside I’ve had a bet on her anyway as I can’t bring myself to bet RVW at such a low price..If I can get some emoney on in the USA at 7/2 or better fair enough but my banker for the meeting is like Zenyatta turned on her head.
This sprinter Zensational is the weirdest looking horse you could every hope to see. He’s something you would expect to see Geronimo riding in a wild west movie. He has the weirdest head carriage ever but when the stalls open…….Race Over!….the head goes up and he takes off like a rocket with no apparent effort from him or rider. I sincerely doubt this horse will start at anything near the 13/8 I backed him at yesterday.
Unbeaten in 3 stakes races his first was at Hollywood Park. Getting 9lbs he beat the fast finishing Noble Court (3rd) by just over 1 length. In his next run The Bing Crosby 6f he absolutely pulverized the opposition leading from start to finish. To be fair the race was too short for the only other Group 1 winner in the race.
However in his 3rd group 1 race over 7f he came up against Noble Court again, but this time receiving only 1lb beat him a very long looking 2 1/4 lengths with unbelievable ease.
The main opposition comes from Saeed Bin Suroor’s Gayego who won a grade 1 on his last apperance over 6f. He won well enough but in second was a Crown of Thorns 16/1 for this and ridden by none other than the jockey who rides Zensational…"These horse aren’t in the same class" says he……….good enough for me to get stuck in
- Total Posts 17716
It’s no secret that Ladbrokes know what is going on at Ballydoyle and it’s very interesting to see how they have priced up the stables two main runners for the BC.
In the Classic they are lowest price of any bookmaker on RVW @ 5/4 (horrendous price! Generally a 7/4 shot elsewhere – still a short price in my opinion). In contrast they are easily the biggest price of any bookmaker on Mastercraftsman for the DIrt Mile @ 7/2 (no bigger than 5/2 elsewhere).
This would indicate that team Ballydoyle seriously fancy RVW but don’t like the chances of MCM.
Hardly think so HH. Let’s face it where Rip Van Winkle is concerned what’s there to know? If he was drifting like a barge without an obvious reason then I would be suspicious.
Their price could simply be of a large commitment from an AP treble or accumalotor or a flood of bets when they were going 2/1 and need to get Zenyatta to balance the books.Or less likely they don’t believe Zenyatta will run and haven’t taken a coin on Rip.
As far as Mastercraftsman is concerned it’s two barreled. AOB has voiced serious concerns about Mastercraftsman acting on the surface even although he was ok at Dundalk he got no real test there. Ladbrokes have some sort of promotion going and Mastercraftsman is a lost leader to attract new customers. They get a free bet on the race and 25 quid at 7/2 is the main bait.
As far as current customer’s are concerned try getting 7000/2000 and see how far you get.
As far as Mastercraftsman is concerned it’s two barreled. AOB has voiced serious concerns about Mastercraftsman acting on the surface even although he was ok at Dundalk he got no real test there. Ladbrokes have some sort of promotion going and Mastercraftsman is a lost leader to attract new customers. They get a free bet on the race and 25 quid at 7/2 is the main bait.
As far as current customer’s are concerned try getting 7000/2000 and see how far you get.
How on earth do you know this to be the case? A loss leader lol
Ladbrokes are invariably either bottom price or top price on Ballydoyle horses depending on whether they fancy them or not. And whether they fancy them or not comes to a large extent from Mike Dillon who is well connected to Ballydoyle. It’s no great secret.
Reet,
I’m sorry but I’m struggling to see any reasoning behind two comments youve come out with?
The first being that STS would’ve lost to RVW around Santa Anita. How can you justify that when neither have run around the track before? You’re purely baseing this around the fact that you think Santa Anita is just a round track I presume?
Secondly, Zenyatta is bigger with Ladbrokes why? Hate to tell you but they don’t have a hotline to the John Shirrefs barn. Like one of my fellow forumites has already pointed out, if they fancy RVW they have to make up the market elsewhere.
- Total Posts 17716
Reet,
I’m sorry but I’m struggling to see any reasoning behind two comments youve come out with?
The first being that STS would’ve lost to RVW around Santa Anita. How can you justify that when neither have run around the track before? You’re purely baseing this around the fact that you think Santa Anita is just a round track I presume?
Not really, HTH.
I’m basing it around the reasoning that RVW is suited by a lesser test than the Sandown 10f, whereas nothiing STS has done suggests he’d improve for it. The track at SA has to be much less of a stamina test than Sandown – whichever way you look at it.Secondly, Zenyatta is bigger with Ladbrokes why? Hate to tell you but they don’t have a hotline to the John Shirrefs barn. Like one of my fellow forumites has already pointed out, if they fancy RVW they have to make up the market elsewhere.
Maybe they don’t need a hotline: the fact is they’ve always been longest on Zenyatta, and still are.
Perhaps they understand that she’s a female, attempting something none has ever achieved before, stepping up in class and distance, probably racing at a speed she’s never been asked to before, and taking on possibly the best 9f 3yo in the world, and in his ideal circumstances?
Rip Van Winkle has never done anything to suggest he could have defeated Sea The Stars under any circumstances.
STS beat him on three occasions, over eight, ten and twelve furlongs. He beat him over a straight mile, a left-handed, sharp, undulating track and a right-handed, testing, flat track.
Nothing tells me that RVW could have reversed the form at Santa Anita. Nothing.
The surface, possibly, which The Rip also has to prove he can handle.
Zenyatta loves the surface and will improve for the trip. You only have to look at the way she travels and finishes to see that.
I doubt a filly with her cruising speed will be taken out of her comfort zone in a race where ideally the faster they go the better.
She only has to prove herself against the boys and, looking at the size of her, I know who would come out second best if she and RVW collided!
Reet,
I’m sorry but I’m struggling to see any reasoning behind two comments youve come out with?
The first being that STS would’ve lost to RVW around Santa Anita. How can you justify that when neither have run around the track before? You’re purely baseing this around the fact that you think Santa Anita is just a round track I presume?
Not really, HTH.
I’m basing it around the reasoning that RVW is suited by a lesser test than the Sandown 10f, whereas nothiing STS has done suggests he’d improve for it. The track at SA has to be much less of a stamina test than Sandown – whichever way you look at it.So it’s got nothing to do with the fact that you feel RVW is speedier or a better miler than STS (the easy 10F of Santa Anita and all that), because RVW has a higher mile rating? Did you see the 2000 guineas, or has it been conveniently erased to support your theory? Oh, of course! RVW has improved since then and STS hit a brick wall!
Reet,
Fair play on the Sandown comments. I still wouldnt say Santa Anita is a poor stamina test – it still is but in a completley different way.
However, your comments on Zenyatta are still strange. Whilst I appreciate everyone has their own opinion, Zenyatta is an absolute beast over the Santa Anita track, improves ten-fold when running over 9f, is unbeaten against a plethora of decent fillies (Shes beaten everything she’s been put up against) and has raced off all kinds of speeds.
The pure fact is that this is NOT RVW’s ideal circumstances and is more suited to Zenyatta who has had all of the experience possible on the surface. This is completley different to the Curlin of last year who hadnt run on the pro-ride before. She will get a strong pace to run at which, in all honesty, is all she needs to run her kind of race. She wont have a problem with the trip either as she’s won more races coming 4+ wide on the home turn than any other way.
Santa Anita is a specialist track and last year we didnt have a specialist in the Classic.
Are you basing this RVW opinion on the fact that grass horses seem to run well on the SA Pro-ride? Please please please just watch some of Zenyattas races on YouTube or wherever you can – shes not even been tested yet.
I’ll probably play in a lot of the races but the horses I am currently planning on having ‘proper’ bets on are:
Father Time
Gayego (NAP)
GladiatorusObviously a lot of the discussion on here has been about the Classic but what are people’s favourite bets in the other races?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.