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I’ve just been matched at 100 and 110 on Alfathaa, and have had a few quid on Stimulation at 14/1 as a saver. Depending on what a friend of mine says later, I may havea little extra on the latter.
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If the ground appears to be riding Gd-Fm, and tomorrow afternoons Forecast rain holds off until after the guineas then I’ll get some more on Ravens Pass at any btter than 3-1.
Bulwark
The Turftrax going stick reading at 16.00 today was 8.6 (edging towards faster ground) and with warm sunshine forecast tomorrow, it can only get quicker.
ps Not that it’ll make any difference to New Approach, who’ll turn it into a procession anyway.
If the ground appears to be riding Gd-Fm, and tomorrow afternoons Forecast rain holds off until after the guineas then I’ll get some more on Ravens Pass at any btter than 3-1.
Bulwark
The Turftrax going stick reading at 16.00 today was 8.6 (edging towards faster ground) and with warm sunshine forecast tomorrow, it can only get quicker.
ps Not that it’ll make any difference to New Approach, who’ll turn it into a procession anyway.
Going by the Met Offie reports there will be some rain due tomorrow afternoon roundabout 1600, but hard to tell whether that will come early or late or not at all.
Some increase in high level cloud during the course of the afternoon & a moderate breeze from around a south-easterly direction but any rain is highly unlikely.
Had a fun watching punt on Moynahan, Fav will probably win but i’d rather do a little on an unknown. Can’t have Ravens or Ibn (never liked RPT winners). At least the stalls are in the right place to have a horse race, no excuses there.
One entry I find quite intriguing is Fireside and have had a little speculative e/w on him @ 25-1 for fun.
There are two things to look at when looking at the horse, despite looking completely outclassed, enough was thought of him to debut him in the goffs million where he ran a respectable enough 6th, he is going for the guineas from the ChappleHyam yard (who I am a big fan of and who has had some decent enough 7f types this year who arent going) and has had a fair bit of money yet not been sent for a trial.
On the flipside, he is connected to alex ferguson who, by recollection, was also connected to gatwick who ran in the 2004 derby seemingly for the sake of it
So it could go one of two ways
Am I right, all help appreciated.
Mr. Deering’s Rules of Punting …
Rule number 1:
ALWAYS BACK YOUR OWN JUDGEMENT
Interesting that Tony Elves the nemarket training centre tipster in the racing post has Opted for Ibn Khaldun tomorrow and not Ravens Pass, who he’s talked about no end up until now. Is that due to the ground I wonder?
"……….You have to have a bet in the Guineas you just have to……….."
Wrong, couldn’t disagree more.
Discipline at all times, if the race looks to complex just sit back and watch objectively.
Only my opinion, of course.
Colin
"……….You have to have a bet in the Guineas you just have to……….."
Wrong, couldn’t disagree more.
Discipline at all times, if the race looks to complex just sit back and watch objectively.
Only my opinion, of course.
Colin
I agree with you BUT too much discipline can take the fun out of the sport IMO, its all about balance.
Too much "business" and you get caught in a up in a world of figures and you forget to enjoy the sport.
Thats what I’ve found anyway. Everything in moderation.
Anyway, ground is drying out so gone for Raven’s Pass and also a double with Infallible to give Gosden and Fortune a weekend to remember.
Got some free promo money as well so might also back New Approach with that.
End of the day, New Approach is New Approach. Try not to work overtime in searching for a flaw in his system because you cannot. And when there is no light at the end of this tunnel and you are still keen to deviate away from New Approach, it is time to give up the punt.
If you have not realised yet – I have spent the day analysing the race. That Fast Company has been ruled out of the 2,000 Guineas = he has 2 1/2 lengths on the next best juvenile from 2007.
However, it is inconclusive the difference between New Approach and Henrythenavigator from their Futurity Stakes bout. You have the ground concern from the latter and the other fact that Fallon cuddled him with a furlong to go as the bird had flown (my personal opinion).
The Craven Stakes’ form and Raven’s Pass beaten and then beating The Bogberry six lengths into third intrigues me. The horses that the latter beat (by 1 1/2 and 6) would make up a similar class to what Ibn Khaldun beat in the Racing Post Trophy.
The Bogberry would be nowhere near top drawer amongst the Ballydoyle camp. Was his run in the Craven to gauge an idea of Raven’s Pass and Twice Over’s Classic qualities? I am very confident Henrythenavigator has come on strongly. How much is the question which follows. Enough to make up the margin on New Approach?
Four horses can win the 2,000 Guineas, and four only. We don’t have to turn to the Craven Stakes for the immediate guide whilst the serious contenders were withdrawn a la Teofilo and HRE.
Henrythenavigator
Ibn Khaldun
New Approach
Raven’s PassIbn Khaldun I am not convinced. However, it’s interesting to note that Godolphin had Fast Company, Ibn Khaldun, Rio De La Plata, McCartney and probably a couple of others given consideration but they have cut the load to just the one. Complete focus on just the one horse. Confidence? I’ll say!
Probably have to keep Henrythenavigator safe. Did we see enough of him last season to indicate further confidence on him today as a 3YO on reappearance?
Raven’s Pass may have too much brilliance and when they head down the dip, will he feel the pinch? Going issues too? Cannot get caught out with any faults when it comes to a Classic. My outlook is that he will become a seriously good 6 furlong horse.
Are we down to one? Yep. We are.
New Approach to win the 2,000 Guineas. It’s the boring, but logical choice.
We have 6/4 to indulge in at the moment.
Christ MDeering can you post a longer post in future please? lol.
I don’t mind New Approach winning now as I’ve used my promo cash on him and would bring the same sort of result as a Raven’s Pass win.
I think that Craven form is very good though especially as the front two were far from fully wound up and I think the bare form is on a par with the Dewhurst form.
The 1000 Guineas – Spacious worries me, vibes are good but I’m happy to stick with Infallible.
Four horses can win the 2,000 Guineas, and four only. We don’t have to turn to the Craven Stakes for the immediate guide whilst the serious contenders were withdrawn a la Teofilo and HRE.
Henrythenavigator
Ibn Khaldun
New Approach
Raven’s Pass Don’t stick your neck out, what exactly do we know, The top 3 ain’t run since 2 (we know squat), RP gets beat in the craven by a horse thought not quick enough to win! Perfect Stride missed the craven yet if he had won it he would be 5/2. I wouldn’t want to be on at 10 times that but then why is it the price it is. All said nobody would be that surprised if it wins! A serious no bet race. A race for trainer or jockey followers.Being a mug punter you’ve got to have an interest bet though
Hey Flash – your avatar is actually framed on my wall.
Very good. I’ve actually managed to get one to fit properly at long last lol.
Ravens Pass for me now that the ground is drying out, that is a big plus for him. Not taking much of a chance betting him ew at 4/1, but stake back if second or third, but I’m sure he will win
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