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“Ginge – not sure you can assume that they will either stay the same or make the natural 7lb progression from 2 to 3 as there will always be outliers that buck the norm”.
—————————————————————-Not assuming anything. There will always be some horses that improve a lot more than the normal 7 lbs. But some types are much more likely to make that more than normal progression. eg Big rangy two year old who has at 2 “yet to grow into its frame”. Whereas smaller types – when they start racing – don’t take as long to reach their peak ability…
And if a 2 year old of more normal size does not grow much from 2 to 3, it is also less likely to improve much. Therefore if such a horse was the Champion 2 year old it is more likely to have others catch it’s form up and overtake it.
On many occasions I have heard people say a horse “has not trained on” just because it is no longer the Champion it was at 2… When the truth is it has “trained on”, but others have caught up and passed it.
City Of Troy’s Timeform two year old rating of 125 was the best of his generation by some way (Henry Longfellow second best at 120). But to be Champion three year old it often needs a rating of 130 or more. Noble Speech has already reached 125, not much more than a few months after his first race. City Of Troy’s rating has now been reduced to 123. Dewhurst not quite the race first thought?
Air Force Blue is easily explainable. Nothing to do with “not training on” as such. He wore a tongue strap for the first time in the Guineas. Trainers just don’t do that with a horse that last time out was impressive in a Group 1… unless it has had a problem (probably a breathing problem) since.
The most likely reason for COT’s poor display is something physical we do not know about… and Coolmore don’t want to tell us / breeders about. He may turn up in a Derby, but do have to wonder if we’ll hear he’s “met with a setback” and retired to stud.
Value Is EverythingHe didn’t deserve that 125 in the first place
Took some creative handicapping of the placed horse to get to that number
“Air Force Blue is easily explainable. Nothing to do with “not training on” as such. He wore a tongue strap for the first time in the Guineas. Trainers just don’t do that with a horse that last time out was impressive in a Group 1… unless it has had a problem (probably a breathing problem)”
Interesting, I didn’t know that about AFB. Watch out for a “t” beside CoT’s name in the Derby racecard then I suppose, no time for a wind op.
His sire raced on drugs (Lasix) that makes life easier for a horse’s respiratory system but CoT can’t have that chemical help.
https://www.insidescience.org/news/science-and-controversy-behind-horse-racing%27s-most-popular-race-day-drugNot sure what to make of Aidan’s new explanation/excuse piece re treating him like a god and not working him hard enough because he does everything so easy and the increased heart rate due to being a bit edgy in the stalls which only allowed him to race to halfway.
It all sounds fantasically good in theory to explain away a bad run but zero way to prove what he said re heart rate is what actually happened. Safe to assume that all horses heart rates would be higher than normal being at the races (which would be different to their normal daily routine) with parading before a big crowd and then cantering to start and being loaded into stalls.
He certainly didn’t look to me like a horse that was too fresh in the early stages of the race (unlike Night Raider who blew any chance he had when he carted his jockey early on). Is this Aidan doing a great tap dancing PR routine?
Aiden O’briens latest excuses for yet another beaten wonder horse of his are probably the most deluded he’s come out with yet.We heard 20 yrs ago how ‘One cool cat’ was the best thing since sliced bread and he failed miserably in the 2004 guineas,we’ve heard the same virtually every year since about what transpired to be average group horses.’High defintion’ and ‘Auguste Rodin’ being the most recent.When you look at his group 1 winning fillies they all beat each other just to achieve black type for future breeding purposes.Incredibly his fav deflecting line is always about a horses ability to stay and always comes out with the we have no idea until they run over further,If Aiden knows how a horses mind works which he loves to mention then he knows the stamina limitations of them too but to suggest that City of Troy wasn’t fit is complete rubbish,to say he’s 16.1 hands high is rubbish too,to say he’s grown into this beast of a horse he’s lead us to believe is rubbish too,to say he reared up in the stalls isn’t true,’Ghostwriter’ was the only horse to come out the stalls badly,to say his heart went into the red zone halfway through the race is laughable as there’s no proof whatsoever of the horses heartbeat during the race.Am afraid Aiden needs to admit that this ‘City of Troy’ is not going to redeem his namesake also named by Coolmore and trained by Sir Michael stoute,he’s just another very decent 2yo who hasn’t grown any or progressed,his ridiculous rating of 125 for beating ‘Haatem’ twice does seem based on hype too now after ‘Notable speech’ beating him easily.Aidens determined he’s going to Epsom next but what else could he say about the best horse he’s ever trained.I can’t see it myself.
Both the pre race hype and the post race excuses are just word salad now.
Sometimes the same:
He’s the best, he’s the next Frankel -> he got beaten because of his god like status (??)
Sometimes different
He never gets tired -> he got tired
(Have to say that was particularly amusing)The stuff about heart rate is tripe and the 16.1 hands thing reminds me of blokes on dating apps (and real life) adding an inch or two to their height while the women are knocking a couple of years off their age.
“Aidan O’Briens latest excuses for yet another beaten wonder horse of his are probably the most deluded he’s come out with yet.”
And the racing media laps it up uncritically. Cannot question anything the Master of Ballydoyle says.
I wonder what would have happened to the horse’s heart rate if he had been walked across the track to the parade ring in front of a crowd of 150,000 people, as happens in the Kentucky Derby. The idea his heart rate was pumping in Newmarket, a mile away from any crowds or any kind of pressure, is ridiculous.
They wrapped him in cotton wool and he just wasn’t up for it. The next outing will be more revealing.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
The comments to the stewards in effect said the horse was not fit. Whereas the winner had already run three times this year, blowing apart the idea that trials are something to be avoided.
Maybe the winner is simply a better horse but there is little doubt he was a fitter horse.
Yes you can get them fit at home but that vital match fitness only comes from competing on the racecourse – back in the day trials were always used to put the finishing touches on a horse to get them cherry ripe for the big day and they may have only been 80-90% ‘fit’ when they ran in the trial but that was the tried and tested method of the day.
With changes in training methods (and racecourse gallops being used instead of a prep run) it became more fashionable to get them fit at home and then go fresh to the big race but it may have been that the ones that were successful in using that method may have just been the better horses than their rivals on the day and were simply able to get away with a lack of a run but far more horses will have been beaten whilst not having had a previous run than those that did.
Guess it just comes down to deciding on whether you think your horse is far enough forward in order to run in a trial beforehand and/or the confidence in your training ability to get them to the big race spot on first time out.
Of course your horse may force your hand if he is not ready to run before the big race but I would always come down more on the side of (with all things being equal) taking in a prep run rather than going straight to the race.
What makes me laugh is if City Of Troy bounces back and wins the Derby, the media will once again be eulogising about what a genius Aidan is… even though he’s the one who blew the Triple Crown dream in the first place, by sending an underprepared horse to Newmarket.
I can’t see him winning the Derby. OK, Auguste Rodin did but he had legitimate excuses for his poor showing at Newmarket. City Of Troy had none.
I don’t buy the idea he failed through lack of fitness. O’Brien is not going to send an unfit horse to the Guineas. He was simply not good enough but the Coolmore publicity machine cannot admit it.
Still not convinced he will even stay 12F, especially if they try to ride him in his customary front running style of racing – while Justify won the Belmont over 12F he was mainly a 9-10F horse and a lot of his progeny so far are also in that range, so not sure how much of an influence he will be for imparting stamina into his offspring.
It may have to come from the dam side to provide the stamina but that is a bit of a mixed bag with COT’s dam being beaten on her only 3 attempts over further than a mile and whilst a lot of his other relatives are predominately 8-10F horses, his full brother Bertinelli (now known as Unbelievable in Hong Kong) has been placed twice over 12F.
I was thinking the same LD73. Justify wasn’t bred for stamina and the horses he beat in the Belmont weren’t exactly 12f superstars. I don’t know much about American racing but I think it’s the weakest race of their Triple Crown; and although they might go harder from the off than they do here -there’s no hill to contend with like there is at Epsom.
Even as a huge fan of aidan I’m well aware of the pressure from the lads to explain away the bad performance. It’s not as if this is the first time for them. He was beaten so far out to suggest there is some issue. With a rodin it looked simply to me anyway that he is a horse you need to catch right. The races he flopped in he didn’t look right whereas the Derby and the Irish champion he looked fantastic and ran accordingly.
Coolmores biggest problem could be that one of aidans scoots up in the next few weeks and storms to the head of the Derby Market. What does Ryan do then. I hope Henry longfellow gets his chance at Epsom as he looks like a horse with speed and stamina. Btw would be great to hear what aidan actually thinks about cot but doubt we ever will.I imagine henry longfellow is going to be a miler
They may try the prix du jockey club though if he wins the French guineas next week
Given he’s by dubawi it’d be a surprise if he didn’t train on
Suspect he will be coolmoores best 3yo by a distance
They had city of troy and henry longfellow as their stand out 2yos
River tiber and Unquestionable also very useful
And none of them look derby horses
Not sure the rest of them are any good, they will have to improve a lot
Appleby has a few nice looking ones, particularly ancient wisdom who looked like he was winning despite the trip being too short last season.
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