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2000 Guineas 2024

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  • #1655579
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    Neither was Galileo.

    Gladders is absolutely right to sound a note of caution, ditto Joe.

    But IIRC correctly Gladders, like me, was keen on Little Big Bear for the 2,000 Guineas at 14/1 after the Phoenix last year and he is by notorious precocity influence No Nay Never.

    City Of Troy is by a sire who never even raced at two and won the USA Triple Crown at three out of a mare by a sire (Galileo) who only ran once at two and didn’t debut until late October.

    Joe says the bookies don’t factor in the time gap until May – I get what he means but if the 2,000 Guineas was a month from now I doubt City Of Troy would be much bigger than 6/4.

    Of course it can go wrong, but I’m happy enough with 12/1 for the 2,000 Guineas and 16/1 for The Derby and kudos to those who got even longer odds about this exciting prospect.

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    #1655580
    Avatar photoCork All Star
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    “If the 2,000 Guineas was a month from now I doubt City Of Troy would be much bigger than 6/4.”

    That would be a gift. He would be odds on.

    #1655581
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    Actually, you’re surely right, CAS, which further illustrates my point.

    Anyone who thinks City Of Troy’s odds now for the 2024 Classics are stupidly short might want to do what Joe rightly did and consider what odds they would lay – they can lay 3/1 for the 2,000 Guineas and 4/1 for The Derby at Betfair Exchange right now if they like.

    That’s a “no thanks” from me.

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    #1655595
    Louise12
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    I read his pedigree very differently from others. To me it screams a horse that is highly unlikely to train on. Horses outrun their pedigrees all the time, so it’s not impossible that he will too, but personally I wouldn’t be using it as a positive in terms of predictions.

    #1655597
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    It’s a game of opinions, Louise, and for sure in racing (as in life) when something looks too good to be true, it often isn’t.

    BUT….

    Justify never even raced at two and won a Triple Crown at three – how can that be an influence for not training on?

    Galileo never saw a racecourse until the end of October at two and at three won The Derby, the Irish Derby and the King George – how can that be an influence for not training on?

    The full sister to the dam won the Oaks – how can that be an influence for not training on?

    Full brother Bertinelli won a big Newbury Handicap and was placed at Royal Ascot at three – how can that be an influence for not training on?

    Half brother Absolute Ruler won over HURDLES – how can THAT be an influence for not training on?

    I concede the dam was best at two – but she was runner up in the Musidora and fourth in the Irish Oaks at three.

    And tbh the pedigree screams “progressive” so much to me, my main concern is that he is clearly quite so forward in July and might be a throwback to some more precocious influences further back in his lineage.

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    #1656163
    FinalFurlong91
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    Henry longfellow just won nicely under hands and heels riding on debut

    By Dubawi out of the brilliant minding

    One for the notebook me thinks

    #1656164
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    Overall time 5.58 seconds outside standard.

    Won well, but looked to me like he was always ideally placed and got first run on two stable mates.

    It will be interesting to see the sectional times and compare those and the overall times after racing, though rainfall could mean he’s had the best of the ground.

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    #1656165
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Gorgeous pedigree.. :heart:
    decent enough debut

    Blackbeard to conquer the World

    #1656167
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 7351

    Added Henry Longfellow 20-1 for now.

    #1656175
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    Overall time comparison with the Anglesey not too bad, but other races will reveal more.

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    #1656794
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    I thought Henry Longfellow did a decent enough time in the end.

    Henry Adams about to run at Leopardstown….

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    #1656796
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Henry Adams
    pedigree – No Nay Never win the guineas
    Ryan Moore was jocked up on the non runner
    Entitled to improve from debut
    How many strokes.?? had 11 on debut
    6 is the bar
    over or under

    I’ll go Devious to beat him

    Blackbeard to conquer the World

    #1656802
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Henry was off the bridle 3 furlongs out.. City of Troy would be crossing the line at that stage
    wasn’t even Moore’s original pick
    He’s a boat

    Blackbeard to conquer the World

    #1656803
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    And Devious nearly did.

    Nathan knows.

    Henry’s a barge.

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    #1656819
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    O’Brien

    “It was a very good performance because the two of them went at it from a long way.

    “Ryan gave him a great ride, he’s a tough hardy horse. He’s a No Nay Never and has plenty of speed as well, he’s laidback. A big mature horse.

    “He’s a fine big, relaxed horse. Ryan said he’s a baby still.

    “I think he’ll go on to the Futurity, he’ll probably end up there with Henry Longfellow. He’s lovely because he’s happy to go forward.”

    Laidback, relaxed
    crikey anymore laidback and he’d be asleep
    only the 8 smacks this time so he is learning… slowly
    “He’s lovely because he’s happy to go forward” I’m lost at this one… :scratch:
    Henry Longfellow will eat him

    Blackbeard to conquer the World

    #1656820
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Plus he’s already been fitted with headgear

    Blackbeard to conquer the World

    #1656835
    Avatar photoGladiateur
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    • Total Posts 4465

    “He’s lovely because he’s happy to go forward”

    AOB has obviously run out of marketing spiel and is now just sticking random words together.

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