2000 guineas 2020

Interesting analysis GT. It’s not a good draw for Kameko that, Oisin’s gunna have to earn his corn to get him into a decent position in behind pace. He talks about him being relaxed and easy to put where he wants so he’s got a better chance than Arizona to get him in the right spot I’d say.

Frenchy i wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona was fairly handy anyway so an earlier move would be automatic.

If the AOB horse likely pacemaker takes the field stands side Kamenko may get stuck on the rail boxed in. I believe from memory the high numbers are stands side.

Just hope the other jockeys are alert and don’t just presume Coolmore will make a true pace. All of their horses can race prominently and their main two are both by sprinter No Nay Never. Knowing Pinatubo will be racing no further forward than mid-div – might even be held up… Might Coolmore try and make a slow pace with it being difficult for Buick to find a way through and/or quicken past rivals who are themselves quickening?
Of the other prominent runners: It certainly won’t be in Mum’s Tipple’s best interests for it to be a strong pace (stamina doubts). Kenzai Warrior led to win on debut but didn’t only other start when winning a Group 3. Juan Elcano led when running well to be a close 3rd to Threat in the Champagne, but doesn’t need to lead or indeed race prominently at all. So that only leaves Pinatubo’s owner companion Military March. He’ll definitely be suited by a strongly run test of stamina at the trip – thought of far more as a Derby horse than 2000 G. But if slowly away and/or can’t find his way through to a prominent posi’, it’s possible Coolmore may decide to slow it down in order to get positional advantage.

I can see in that case maybe Al Suhail setting the pace for Pinatubo. He is more of a derby colt, CA even said so. I can’t see Pinatubo losing this race because of AOB tactics personally.

I find trying to work it out fascinating though!

Because we know Kameko will definitely stay and just based on OM comments that he’s easy to handle, so using a little more energy to get him into the right spot would more likely not hinder his chances compared to say Arizona’s.

Arizona is a questionable stayer. AOB is convinced he will stay, so much so that I’d actually be surprised a bit now if he doesn’t. But he won’t want to use up too much energy early on to get him into a good spot that’s for sure. GT, could be right here, maybe he will try and dictate the pace, get to front, slow it down type of tactics? That way he’s less likely to have to waste energy trying to get him positioned. Neither has a good draw here.

I don’t think Arizona has to be ridden a certain way though Frenchy, so i wouldn’t have thought he’ll need to waste energy to get to a certain track position?
I’d expect Arizona to stay the mile ok, and has stayed a mile already- granted an easy American mile so slightly different. Whether he is good enough is another thing completely.

We might see Saturday just how valuable the likes of Wayne Lordan, Padraig Beggy and the team of jockeys at Ballydoyle are in the grand scheme of things to their operation and the tactics etc I’d imagine New World Tapestry would have been prime pace maker candidate ordinarily but can Adam Kirby do as good a job at that side of things as one of their own? It might well be irrelevant I thought they’d be going a good gallop in this anyway Mum’s Tipple (albeit stepping up in trip so may not be so handy), Military March, Kenzai Warrior, New World Tapestry as mentioned, Arizona and Wichita have both been handy in their races, there are plenty of pace angles in this and unlike the fillies race most of these are sure stayers who for some will want even further before long.

I’m not so concerned for Kameko he’s been handy enough himself in his races and Oisin Murphy is champion jockey for a reason I think he’ll have it in his own head already that he could find himself trapped he’ll make sure he does everything in his power to not let that happen. For what its worth he was very impressive in the Verterm Futurity off what was a strong pace and that performance to me showed a marked improvement in his attitude/focus as a racehorse for all the talent was evident in his previous runs. If he can translate that to turf and I don’t see why he can’t he has the physical scope Pinatubo doesn’t to improve some more as a 3 year old.

Regarding Arizona is it not telling that Ryan Moore picked Armory for the National Stakes and then Wichita for the Dewhurst? He’s been put in his place four times at Group 1 level and I can see Wichita overtaking him very soon as he wasn’t that far behind him in his first crack at a Group 1.

They are probably my two against the favourite, I like Military March as a horse but am not so keen on Hector Crouch at this very high level with all due respect to the lad.

Wichita interests me more than Arizona

He was the choice of Ryan Moore and went off way shorter than Arizona in the Dewhurst but I’m not sure he will have liked the soft ground

Annihilated a field at the track on his start before that on good ground

And is much more unexposed than his stable mate

Il be very interested to see what sort of price I can get in the w/o pinatubo market, who i have no interest in taking on

Bit conflicted on this, if Pinatubo is the horse everyone says he is and his trainer claims he has improved over the winter then he really should be dispatching this lot rather handily.

However, I still have that nagging doubt in the back of my mind that he was a very forward and mature 2yr old (bearing in mind he made his debut on 10 May of last year) and Arizona aside (who made his debut on 6 May last year) the main contenders Kameko (25 July), Wichita (23 August), Kinross (5 October) & Military March (27 July) are all later developing types who took longer to hit the track and as a result they just may be open to more improvement from 2 to 3 than Pinatubo is.

Arizona If they run to form I don’t see a way how he can reverse the form from last year, yes he got closer in the Dewhurst where he decidedly got first run on Pinatubo and yet by the line he was being left behind.
Kameko looks the obvious threat as he got better as the season progressed and the faster they go early the more it will suit him based on how he finished off the mile in the Futurity at Newcastle.
Wichita is interesting with Dettori on board and I was expecting a bigger run from him in the Dewhurst but I just wonder whether the soft ground and his exertions from the big performance he put up in the Tattersalls Stake (prior to the Dewhurst) took the edge of him.
Kinross is a horse I like but I have a feeling the ground could be a bit lively for him, he won on his debut on good to soft, the only races his dam ever won were also on good to soft and arguably Kingman’s best performances came on soft ground to although he did handle quicker to be fair.
Military March I think will be better over 10-12F and may find this happening a bit too quick for him.
Al Suhail I would imagine is in the race purely to ensure Pinatubo gets a good even gallop.

What people should bare in mind (and I haven’t backed him) but the coolmore team have consistently said Arizona will make a good 3 year old and at times a better 3 year old. By all accounts he’s developed really well over the winter, one recent gallop report was glowing about his pace, I really think it’s possible he’s improved massively and that needs considering.

I’m on anti post with Kameko so happy but there is doubt about the track after last time for sure and he’s short enough now. If he handles it I think he’s pinatubos biggest challenger.

Right now if I was placing a bet without having done so, it would be Military March EW or just to place. If he’s really a derby favourite and many people think he is, he needs to be finishing 3rd or 4th here