2000 guineas 2020

This is the only statement I could find from Fabre Frenchy following him being pulled out of the race in France where Victor Ladorum was also a contender.

Leading 2000 Guineas contender Earthlight suffers sprained fetlock. … Fabre told wwww.godolphin.com: “Earthlight pulled up slightly sore after work yesterday (Tuesday) and upon examination appears to have a fetlock sprain. He will have a couple of easy days and won’t run next week.8 May 2020

Charlie Appleby reported yesterday that Pinatubo has grown and matured over the winter this must be his target race..but really rate Earthlight so why not Irish 2000 for him?

Look forward to seeing him there Jack.

My Each Way play if he runs against Pinatubo Frenchy is going to be…
KENZAI WARRIOR .. 40/1 William Hill
I was there at Newmarket at the beginning of November and backed him when he won the Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3) over 7f in heavy (atrocious) conditions from Ropey Guest..he didn’t get a clear run that day but still ran on to win by half a length.

Before that he had made all at Salisbury over a mile in good conditions to beat Max Vega by a neck.

His sire is the Japanese bred Karakontie who won the French 2000 Guineas and Breeders Cup Mile Santa Anita as a 3yo beating older horses including Toronado (Nathan )..he is from the immediate family of Kingmambo.

Not a fashionable trainer in R.Teal but I really liked what I saw in the horse last November and think he could run a big race against Pinatubo Jac

I heard many people saying ‘will Pinatubo train on?’ and remember ‘Air Force Blue’ and using it as one of the main reasons to say he was poor value for the Guineas.

So I just went through the form of all Champion European 2 year olds for the past 20 years. As far as I could see, only Air Force Blue, Johannesburg and One Cool Cat were disappointing as 3 year olds.

The thing I noticed was all 3 of these are USA bred and maybe that can partly explain it with the US preference for early speedy types.

Sharmardal (sire of Pinatubo) was US bred but he himself was a Champion at 2 and went on to greater things at 3. Lava Flow (out of Dalakhani) the Dam of Pinatubo was not such a star but improved 20 pounds from 2 to 3 also.

Even if we discount where the Champion 2 Year Olds were bred. There is only 3/20 or 15% of Champion 2 Year Olds who didn’t go on to achieve as 3 year olds.

To me it seems the ‘will it train on’ angle is a bit overused. It reminds me of when people say ‘I wouldn’t take less than 5/1 on a Grand National Horse, I’d want 5/1 for a horse to get round. ‘ When if you have a look the actual odds of getting around are probably around even or 6/4 on an average year.

Will Ballydoyle be sending anything?

Colosus, no harm, but i’d say it’s obvious that a trainer likes his Guineas entrants?

@KrisKin I could spin that against you though with a stat such as, the only 2 horses above Pinatubo on 2 year old ratings…. Celtic Swing was beaten in the Guineas and Arazi never won another group 1 again. There could be something in it that the very highest rated almost freakish 2 year olds aren’t quite as good at 3. I think if Pinatubo doesn’t win there is an angle there with that idea.

He is a little small as well which adds to the intrigue but no one knows that’s the beauty. I think evens shots in the Guineas is always going to be a dodgy bet though

Apparently Threat has improved psychically and mentally from last season
I pencilled him in as a 7f horse when doing a 10 to follow list with races like the Jersey, Lennox and Foret possible targets similar to when he had Strong Suit.
I think with the lack of trials Hannon is happy to take a chance that a few rivals might be caught cold or that he feels he maybe a miler now with a good winters development

@Colosus68- Interesting, i’m surprised Halford would be taking horses to Coolmore for a gallop! Presume you mean the Irish Guineas for his entered horse not horses?