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Larchmont Lad 40/1 for me. Didn’t get the run of the race in the Craven LTO and ran on his own away from the top 4 in the race. Will come on for the run and I feel we’ve wrote him off too early. Won a G3 round the course which is a big plus. Buick in the saddle and it wouldn’t be the first time one of the stables second strings goes in instead of the more fancied ones.
With you on that Gibbs. Hoping he can run into a place
I snagged 9/1 for Larchmont Lad in the Craven and was bereft at how poorly he ran. I also had an each-way saver with three places. War Decree was woeful, yet Larchmont Lad still couldn’t place to cover my bet. I felt he was outstayed as much as anything last time.
Noticeable in that race was how long it took Eminent to wear down Rivet and it’s only in the last 100 yards that Meade’s colt really starts getting on top. I feel he will probably come under pressure before some of the others on the fast ground today. He may run an excellent trial for Epsom today but I suspect something else will just finish faster today. I think Larchmont Lad has a bit to do to reverse form with the Frankel colt today but good luck, he’s certainly good odds and it would not be the first time one of mine didn’t win the trial but landed the big race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It looks to me that if Churchill has trained on from last year, it’s probably his
to take. I’m hoping Eminent could be a real chip off the old block, but I’m more
hopeful than confident. If he wins I’ll be delighted for Jac who’s on at very nice
prices. I’m just getting my head into flat mode, and I’ve missed all the sexy prices,
so looking at those who might just have a squeak at decent odds I think that DREAM
CASTLE is worth considering. I think Oisen Murphy made a bit of a pig’s ear
of it last time, he went for home far too far out and set it up nicely for Barney Roy.
I don’t think there’s much between them, and with De Sousa jocked up I can see him
lasting home much better with a more patient ride. 16/1 is worth a shot.It might look at bit mad, but I can’t talk myself out of having an e/w on SPIRIT OF
VALOR. He’s very clearly the 3rd string in the O’Brien camp, but looking at his
three races in Ireland, 2 over 6f and 1 over 7f, he very much looks like he needs more. As
for his run in the UAE Derby at Meydan, you can fling that run out the window, he lost it at
the start. He might be, and probably will be sacrificed for his more fancied buddies, but if
that doesn’t go to plan, I think he’ll be able to keep on well enough to hang onto a place.
I chanced the 100/1 that was on offer this morning.Good luck all
Churchill was the best two year old colt and has scope for further improvement; but the form is held down by the Dewhurst runner-up Lancaster Bomber. Latter went on to be beaten exactly the same 1 1/4 lengths by Oscar Performance in Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. So although Churchill was good and likely to improve further – wasn’t an outstanding two year old. On past “form” Lancaster Bomber is “value”, but fact is his level of form is thoroughly exposed and others have/likely to improve past him and unlikely to get the run-of-the-race he did here in October.
Nice to see the “Trials” having a real impact this year.
Al Wukair beat the Lagadere winner National Defence by a length in the Djebel on reappearance. However, pushed along in rear some way out – will he get too far behind? Despite the unbeaten record I have a suspicion Al Wukair isn’t straightforward. Runner-up National Defence may be best from the front and not allowed to lead, form a little questionable. That said, winner was impressive and more scope for improvement. Going a slight concern, not raced on as firm ground as today and is by Dream Ahead.
Eminent would surely be shorter if O’Brien/Hannon/Fabre trained him. Martyn Meade’s horse was a rare stable debutant winner of his only race at two, winning a back end good quality Newmarket maiden. Won Craven by 1 3/4 lengths from Racing Post Trophy winner Rivet. Although disappointing they didn’t race altogether, those in the middle (including Larchmont Lad) well beaten. Eminent is a big brute of a horse, by Frankel, type to improve significantly as a three year old. Problem might be the distance – dam placed in the Fillies Mile at two but best at 10 to 12f and grand-dam Quarter Moon second in the Oaks. Eminent himself ground out a win over this mile in the Craven and whether he’ll be staying on too late remains to be seen. However, at 7/1+ worth taking a chance with. To do what he did on only his second start very encouraging…
Same goes for the Greenham 1-2. Dream Castle didn’t race at two. Won maiden and then looked all over the winner when going clear two out at Newbury. Wasn’t as if he didn’t stay 7f, came 4 lengths clear of the rest but “outstayed” by Barney Roy. Although by Frankel, dam was a sprinter. Hoods sometimes calm a horse down and enable one settle/stay further than it would do without. So the first time tongue tie is interesting. However, on breeding and Greenham run needs it to make a big difference. Barney Roy should be the one more suited by a mile. Hannon horse came back from a debut mile victory on debut and should do even better returned to that trip. Newbury time backing up the performance.
Forget the others.This year’s Guineas looks a really good one. Possibly five Group 1 horses in there.
Churchill has the best chance, but at current prices needs to be taken on imo. That’s not to say he won’t shorten up late. Team Coolmore seem to like their horses to start short priced favourites, may be they think it helps their stud value – even if it loses.These are my idea of their fair prices (100% book):
Churchill 85/40, Barney Roy 11/4, Al Wukair 11/2, Eminent 6/1, Dream Castle 16/1, Lancaster Bomber 33/1, Larchmont Lad 66/1, Spirit Of Valour 100/1, Top Score 800/1, Law And Order 800/1.
With a shortish priced fav and at least four of the ten extremely unlikely to place, this looks a great each way race.
I’ve done ew bets Barney Roy @ 4/1 with a smaller one on Eminent 7/1.Value Is EverythingNice preview Ginge
Looking at that five furlong race the ground must be ridiculously quick. I can see this favouring the speed horses so can see a dream castle winning now. maybe killing them for pace
Marsha, you’re such a genious sprinter, I love you
!Not being funny Hein my German friend but firstly it’s spelled genius
and secondly I don’t you ever recall tipping these horses up before the race, you just seem to aftertime them once the race has gone.
Seems to be a bit of money going on Spirit of Valor Big G, so I’ve followed you with that one. There’s also money going on Dream Castle, which is probably to only horse in the race I don’t fancy because it’s been entered in a 6f race later in the year [watch it win by a mile now].Really can’t get excited about the Guineas this year. Reckon it’s down to Al Wakair, Barney Roy and Eminent, but only looked at the race for the first time last night.
Churchill to win . Very confident selection .
I think Eminent will be placed .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Really can’t get excited about the guineas this year.
If you can’t get excited about this renewal you’re in the wrong game imo. Brilliant renewal.
Seems to be a bit of money going on Spirit of Valor Big G, so I’ve followed you with that one. There’s also money going on Dream Castle, which is probably to only horse in the race I don’t fancy because it’s been entered in a 6f race later in the year [watch it win by a mile now].Really can’t get excited about the Guineas this year. Reckon it’s down to Al Wakair, Barney Roy and Eminent, but only looked at the race for the first time last night.
Best of luck Moe, it’s definitely not my money that’s brought Spirit Of Valor down in price, but I think he’s
worth a small stake e/w. Good luck with himNot being funny Hein my German friend but firstly it’s spelled genius
and secondly I don’t you ever recall tipping these horses up before the race, you just seem to aftertime them once the race has gone.
Thanks for that spelling lesson, judge. I won’t comment that any further..
I didn’t announce her here in advance, because only my guts helped me to back her, and this is probably no criteria for other people.
Of course it is not funny, I just posted this to congratulate and appreciate Marsha as she deserves it!I see 2 of the 3 ‘lads’ are down at Newmarket and thus I’d expect Churchill to go off odds on.
Good win by Churchill, but again, not impressed with him.
The horse for me to take on this race for upcoming ones is Barney Roy.
Churchill done it like he always does.
People aren’t impressed with him because he’s a battler. To compare it to golf, he’s more like Jordan Spieth, who tends to battle his way to victory, rather than a Dustin Johnson or Rory Mcilroy who can destroy golf courses.
The Frankels were disappointing in the end.
Looking further ahead, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Churchill stretched his stamina out to a mile and a half and won the Derby. I know we had this debate last night but he’s so relaxed and as O’Brien said post interview he can’t think of many Galileos who didn’t stay well.
Get the feeling that if you ran that race again you would probably get a different result – they really didn’t go as fast as expected and Barney and Eminent both pulled too hard and then they all pretty much got in each others way down the middle of the course, whilst Churchill had the run of the race on the rail.
Still hold to my opinion that 8F is as far as Churchill wants to go as he looked like going clear at 1F pole but then only just scrambled home as the other two closed rapidly.
Churchill done it like he always does.
People aren’t impressed with him because he’s a battler. To compare it to golf, he’s more like Jordan Spieth, who tends to battle his way to victory, rather than a Dustin Johnson or Rory Mcilroy who can destroy golf courses.
The Frankels were disappointing in the end.
Looking further ahead, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Churchill stretched his stamina out to a mile and a half and won the Derby. I know we had this debate last night but he’s so relaxed and as O’Brien said post interview he can’t think of many Galileos who didn’t stay well.
Would be staggered if he got 12f, he dosent want much more than 8, relaxing only gets you so far…. id follow him into any 8f race this season but id oppose him on anything further
Pretty straight forwards race, experience shown….. barney roy, al wukair will learn a great deal but if churchill comes on for the run (which he will) then i think theyll find him too much
A wukair ran a much better race than i thought he would
Eminent didnt settle but definitely needs further, i would be interested at 10-12 for him, would oppose at 8 if ran at that distance again
CHURCHILL 16/1
At this moment Carravaggio is best 2yo colt but being a speedy bred sort i doubt he get 1m next year.And for me
CHURCHILL will be stable horse for all top 7f races this year.Yes chesham not always strong race but AOB ran group one horses in it with BALLYDOYLE and MAYBE.While 1m2 be best trip next year he have enough class to win at Newmarket.Well done all Churchill backers. Especially to Darren who posted the above nearly a year ago.
That’s you first one in mate
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