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Oh Dear, Al Wukair has disappeared from the Guineas betting, what the F*** has happened there?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
What puzzles me is that a lot of people are saying Eminent will not have the speed to win a guineas yet it was one of the fastest times recorded for the Craven for many years and it was a time that has only been bettered in a guineas by Mister Baileys in 1994.
For me the one that is going to potentially struggle will be Barney Roy as 2F out in the Greenham he was flat out and under pressure and that was on Newbury’s nice flat galloping track, out of the main 4 contenders I see him (and to a lesser extent Eminent) being the first to be pushed along (probably passing the bushes) and going down into the dip I can see Barney getting unbalanced and not being able to organise that big long stride in time to reel in the leaders.
The one x-factory is Al Wukair, I know Fabre has dismissed concerns about the fast ground but his sire Dream Ahead was lethal with give underfoot and I would worry about him again going into the dip on fast ground but you couldn’t help but be impressed the way he picked up National Defence after giving him a healthy headstart – not sure that he could get away with that tomorrow though.
Not had a bet in the race but for me I would love to see Eminent win (not just for the Frankel factor but because he is from a smaller yard taking on the top dogs and it would be nice to see them come out on top), I just hope that Crowley (who knows him pretty well) is able to get him rolling early enough to negate the speed horses from getting a jump on him and then see him powering clear up that final furlong.
, I just hope that Crowley (who knows him pretty well) is able to get him rolling early enough to negate the speed horses from getting a jump on him and then see him powering clear up that final furlong.
He’ll do well to power away from Churchill, if you watch a video replay of his National stakes win he was the one powering away in the final furlong.
What puzzles me is that a lot of people are saying Eminent will not have the speed to win a guineas yet it was one of the fastest times recorded for the Craven for many years and it was a time that has only been bettered in a guineas by Mister Baileys in 1994.
Possibly because it isn’t quite that simple, selling platers have broken track records and possibly because a once-raced maiden took three lengths out of him and would almost certainly have beaten him over seven furlongs. That horse ran much too freely in early stages leaving the winner as the only horse to see out the trip. In the world outside Frankelmania my guess is that the form of that race is pretty weak. He might win but I think he is far more likely to finish out of the three.
, I just hope that Crowley (who knows him pretty well) is able to get him rolling early enough to negate the speed horses from getting a jump on him and then see him powering clear up that final furlong.
He’ll do well to power away from Churchill, if you watch a video replay of his National stakes win he was the one powering away in the final furlong.
Bear in mind that he was powering away in the 7th furlong from a non staying Mehmas
and possibly because a once-raced maiden took three lengths out of him
Surely an exaggeration, Benbatl was at most a length and a half up on Eminent at any stage in the race, unless my race reading is that bad?
, I just hope that Crowley (who knows him pretty well) is able to get him rolling early enough to negate the speed horses from getting a jump on him and then see him powering clear up that final furlong.
He’ll do well to power away from Churchill, if you watch a video replay of his National stakes win he was the one powering away in the final furlong.
Bear in mind that he was powering away in the 7th furlong from a non staying Mehmas
Yes I’m aware of that but it was still impressive how he finished.
Think tomorrow will turn into a battle, a war, no horse is going to just win the race easily I don’t think, although I could of course be wrong. And who would I most want in that battle? Churchill of course.
I agree there that the likely fast pace set by the number of pacemakers could well turn it into a real battle and given Eminent’s been drawn out nearer the middle of the course in stall 2 I’d imagine Crowley will have him handy and go for it early. This to me seems the best idea as he could leave the hold up horses (of which the main opponents are) caught napping.
What puzzles me is that a lot of people are saying Eminent will not have the speed to win a guineas yet it was one of the fastest times recorded for the Craven for many years and it was a time that has only been bettered in a guineas by Mister Baileys in 1994.
Possibly because it isn’t quite that simple, selling platers have broken track records and possibly because a once-raced maiden took three lengths out of him and would almost certainly have beaten him over seven furlongs. That horse ran much too freely in early stages leaving the winner as the only horse to see out the trip. In the world outside Frankelmania my guess is that the form of that race is pretty weak. He might win but I think he is far more likely to finish out of the three.
Aware of that but my point being that a horse with supposedley no toe wouldn’t be in a position to record a fast time if they were not able to stay within striking distance of those setting the pace, which he did comfortably in the Craven. He doesn’t have that push button acceleration (which was why Benbatl was able to go from being 2L behind him to 1L in front going into the dip) but that can be negated if you time you run correctly.
You can pick holes in all of the form and to me Rivet (not running because of the ground more than the course) ran a much better race in the Craven than he did in the Dewhurst (where they plainly got the tactics wrong), you could argue that the Dewhurst form is weak with Lancaster Bomber being beaten over 9L in the National Stakes yet only 1.25L in the Dewhurst, Blue Point didn’t stay yet was only beaten 1.75L and Seaven Heavens was beaten 5.25L and he was pretty much unrideable for the whole race. Churchill still has to prove that he even gets 8F (totally sprinting speed on the dams side) and in my mind a repeat of his 2 yr old form will simply not be good enough.
I did wonder with all the talk about tag team pacemakers setting a real strong gallop, would it be beyond the realms of possibility that Coolmore go the opposite way and set a slower pace to compromise the stronger stayers like Barney/Eminent/Al Wukair and to ensure those free going sorts (Dream Castle) don’t settle?
You really think Churchill is doubtful to get a mile?
I can’t imagine a galileo who won races like Churchill has failing to stay a mile. In fact I’m struggling to think of any Galileo who couldn’t get a mile full stop, however they were bred on the dam side.
You really think Churchill is doubtful to get a mile?
I can’t imagine a galileo who won races like Churchill has failing to stay a mile. In fact I’m struggling to think of any Galileo who couldn’t get a mile full stop, however they were bred on the dam side.
Spot on.
Best Wishes
SilkYou really think Churchill is doubtful to get a mile?
I can’t imagine a galileo who won races like Churchill has failing to stay a mile. In fact I’m struggling to think of any Galileo who couldn’t get a mile full stop, however they were bred on the dam side.
Just saying he has yet to prove it but personally I think a mile is as far as he will want to go and I don’t think a brutal end to end gallop (particularly first time out) is going to be in his best interests, the dam was a 5F horse and she was by Airwave who was all speed and there isn’t anything on that side of the family that would indicate he will get any further than 8F- don’t forget he did start out over 6F as a 2yr old.
Backed Lancaster Bomber @ 65’s to win. Staying on well behind Churchill in the Dewhurst over 7F. Favourite looked at the end of it’s tether and wont stay a Mile IMO.
33’s after his second in the BC. Added a bit e/w on him. Looks like he is going to be an underated horse.
I thought the same thing straight after the Dewhurst on page 2 of this thread
LD they mate Galileo with speedy dams to get the perfect combination of speed and stamina.
The whole coolmore operation is revolved around the classics. If you look at Galileos, he had Frankel who was by a very speedy mare and stayed at least 10 furlongs, and Cape Blanco who was also speedily bred on the dam side and won the Irish derby. There are many other examples. Churchill started off at six but the way he stayed on in that race suggested a horse that would easily stay beyond that distance and his subsequent races have confirmed that impression.
I would be more concerned that Churchill is too laid back than him not saying. Galileo was extremely laid back and has passed those attributes on to his progeny; however there seems to be a fine line between being laid back and actually being downright lazy and I hope Churchill doesn’t cross it.
Backed Lancaster Bomber @ 65’s to win. Staying on well behind Churchill in the Dewhurst over 7F. Favourite looked at the end of it’s tether and wont stay a Mile IMO.
33’s after his second in the BC. Added a bit e/w on him. Looks like he is going to be an underated horse.
I thought the same thing straight after the Dewhurst on page 2 of this thread
Looking back on that quote, amazing to think that LB was available at 200 + most of 2017.
Bookmakers are finally realising Lancaster Bomber isn’t here to fly shotgun for ‘Winston’,he’s 20’s across the board now but Ladbrokes have just let me have another £25 e/w at 33/1…More fool them.If we show this years 2000 gns as a handicap the penny might drop and he’ll be 16/1 in the morning with them.
Churchill..9-10 5/4
Lancaster bomber…9-5 33/1 Ladbrokes
Barney Roy…9-3 7/2
Al wukair…9-1 4/1
Eminent….8-13 6/1
Dream Castle…8-12 14/1
Larchmont lad…8-12 40/1
Top Score….8-10 100/1
Law and Order…8-6 100/1
Spirit of valor…8-4. 66/1Strictly on official ratings ‘Lancaster Bomber’ is a major player but the huge misconception here is because he’s been pacemaker for ‘Churchill’ three times before,Bookmakers believe he’s there to do it again,had ‘Spirit of valor’ not been in the race then I could understand that thinking but ‘Lancaster’ has ran on his own merits since the Dewhurst and ran huge races in both America and Dubai.I believe this fellow bounces off fast ground and will have improved more than the length and a bit he has to find with his stablemate.We know ‘The Bomber’ is a hardened Pro now but we haven’t seen a blink of ‘Churchill’ since October and the more I go on about it the more I can see Lancaster Bomber at least placing,he should on ratings alone be single figures in the betting.
Bookmakers are finally realising Lancaster Bomber isn’t here to fly shotgun for ‘Winston’,he’s 20’s across the board now but Ladbrokes have just let me have another £25 e/w at 33/1…More fool them.If we show this years 2000 gns as a handicap the penny might drop and he’ll be 16/1 in the morning with them.
Churchill..9-10 5/4
Lancaster bomber…9-5 33/1 Ladbrokes
Barney Roy…9-3 7/2
Al wukair…9-1 4/1
Eminent….8-13 6/1
Dream Castle…8-12 14/1
Larchmont lad…8-12 40/1
Top Score….8-10 100/1
Law and Order…8-6 100/1
Spirit of valor…8-4. 66/1Strictly on official ratings ‘Lancaster Bomber’ is a major player but the huge misconception here is because he’s been pacemaker for ‘Churchill’ three times before,Bookmakers believe he’s there to do it again,had ‘Spirit of valor’ not been in the race then I could understand that thinking but ‘Lancaster’ has ran on his own merits since the Dewhurst and ran huge races in both America and Dubai.I believe this fellow bounces off fast ground and will have improved more than the length and a bit he has to find with his stablemate.We know ‘The Bomber’ is a hardened Pro now but we haven’t seen a blink of ‘Churchill’ since October and the more I go on about it the more I can see Lancaster Bomber at least placing,he should on ratings alone be single figures in the betting.
Thats why Ladbrokes only let me have £25 e/w on at 33/1 tonight because within 2 mins of posting this they cut him to 25/1…..Here we go..TAPKs got that feeling again.
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