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As expected, Rivet and Peace Envoy are out of the race.
Bookmakers are pricing Lancaster Bomber as if he is a pacemaker for Churchill here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Have backed Churchill, put my colours to the mast of the big fellow, £50 at 6-4 and another £100 on today at 5/4
if anything beats him they’ll know they’ve been in a hell of a battle
On why Al Wukair is a runner here in the Guineas rather than in France, I think there are a couple of things to consider.
Firstly and positively Andre Fabre has a wonderful record with his selected runners in this classic…so far so good. However, his usual MO is to send them here at two and let them get a feel for the (quirky) place.
Not done that with Al Wukair, has he improved significantly? Or is there another explanation?
I read recently in the Racing Post the French authorities have announced significant prize money increases for the Poulains and the Pouliches of around 40% I think. On top of that, if the winner is French bred there is an additional dividend that in essence doubles the prize money to around Euro 620k. That is a massive incentive to run your good French breds at Chantilly this year. This was announced around February I believe. I am not up to date on the make-up of the Fabre stable 3yos but I do know that Al Wukair is Irish bred.Obviously Al Wukair is very talented, has good recent form, is in great hands and has a chance on any reading of the form book. Just saying.
As expected, Rivet and Peace Envoy are out of the race.
Bookmakers are pricing Lancaster Bomber as if he is a pacemaker for Churchill here.
If O’Brien runs the three of them I think Lancaster Bomber will be used as a second kicker.
Spirit of Valor will set off like a bat out of hell and will be followed by Lancaster Bomber who will kick into overdrive once Spirit has been broken to ensure the pace is very good to get the best from Churchill. Churchill will be the one team Coolmore want to win for stallion value etc. They won’t worry if Lancaster Bomber is sacrificed to do so.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Really? A second pacemaker? You really think they’d need that? Think you’re reading too much into it Nathan it’s not the golden mile at Bislett we’re talking about here
I like to speculate.
O’Brien likes to play tactical, he’ll be walking the course in his sleep tonight.
The chasing pack will have to respect Lancaster Bomber, if it was a no hoper they would ignore it.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Just read this thread from start to finish. It was quite good fun reading it actually.
Good luck to everyone who has had a bet on the race, especially to Darren who opened the thread on the 28/6/16 and Eminent’s number one fan Triptych.
As expected, Rivet and Peace Envoy are out of the race.
Bookmakers are pricing Lancaster Bomber as if he is a pacemaker for Churchill here.
If O’Brien runs the three of them I think Lancaster Bomber will be used as a second kicker.
Spirit of Valor will set off like a bat out of hell and will be followed by Lancaster Bomber who will kick into overdrive once Spirit has been broken to ensure the pace is very good to get the best from Churchill. Churchill will be the one team Coolmore want to win for stallion value etc. They won’t worry if Lancaster Bomber is sacrificed to do so.If they do that it will suit Eminent and Barney Roy to a tee and not Churchill as I don’t think having a brutal pace from the start will be what they want to subject him to first time out (regardless of how fit he is) and especially as I personally think that on breeding 8F is as far as he will want to go.
Wouldn’t be at all surprised if he isn’t in the first three
It is a surprise to still see Lancaster Bomber at around 25/1, particularly with none of the front four at an each-way price. Interesting to see what happens between now and post time – anything bigger than 16/1 wouldn’t be a great cause for optimism.
It is a surprise to still see Lancaster Bomber at around 25/1, particularly with none of the front four at an each-way price. Interesting to see what happens between now and post time – anything bigger than 16/1 wouldn’t be a great cause for optimism.
For me, it has been difficult to get excited about Lancaster Bomber for the Guineas.
So much of his form simply doesn’t look good enough. He is only a maiden winner at the moment and horses who have competed in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf have had a bad record the following season.
How good was the UAE Derby? Nothing has run since to help us know but Thunder Snow runs in the Kentucky Derby, by which time we will know if Lancaster Bomber franked the form. Thunder Snow is reckoned by Godolphin to be their best chance so far of lifting the Kentucky Derby but at his current odds of 16/1, I would be happy to lay him to a place at 4/1. The US racing can be brutal and I feel Thunder Snow will be like a fish out of water at Churchill Downs.
I have, therefore, got to question how good the race in Meydan was and then analyse for pointers to Lancaster Bomber’s chances on Saturday. It basically boils down to how good that 2nd place in the Dewhurst was. We know Blue Point did not get home and we know Rivet was disappointing enough for William Haggas to question whether the track was an issue. Another modest enough run in the Craven, 10 lbs below his form on RPR and then subsequently being ruled out of the Guineas seems to tell us plenty about the Racing Post Trophy winner. South Seas has been bitterly disappointing by any standards, while Seven Heavens looks a broken down rogue who was just beaten further by Blue Point, than he was behind Churchill last season.
I feel Lancaster Bomber’s entire chance is based on that one run in the Dewhurst. He surely cannot beat Churchill based on the two lesser runs since they last met. If we accept that, then only two places are up for grabs and I cannot see Lancaster Bomber sneaking into the places.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ladbrokes have pushed Lancaster Bomber out to 33/1 today now we have what looks like the final field of 10 runners.This strapping son of ‘War front’ has more race experience worldwide than any horse in the race,he’s had a run this season and proved he has trained on.His Dewhurst form shows like both races since he’s a strong finisher from a strong gallop,he has is own pacemaker in ‘Spirit of Valor’ who will lead him to the 2 pole but wont be able to maintain that and thats when ‘The Bomber’will take over on a course that suits better than both Meydan and Santa Anita.’Blue Point’ ‘Thunder Snow’ and ‘Rivet’ have all proved they are serious Group 1 horses since their ‘Dewhurst’ runs and that only emphasises ‘Lancaster Bombers’ own credentials.I believe he will again run way beyond his price just like he did at 66/1 in the Dewhurst and if ‘Churchill’ comes to Newmarket with one eye on the Derby it will be his stable companion who will blow him out the water…Incredibly I have been doing some building work at the house on Butterley hill in Ripley where ‘Barnes Wallace’ lived during the time he created the bouncing bomb…Is that a coincidence or what?..Either way I have had £50 e/w at 33/1 with Ladbrokes tonight
As expected, Rivet and Peace Envoy are out of the race.
Bookmakers are pricing Lancaster Bomber as if he is a pacemaker for Churchill here.
If O’Brien runs the three of them I think Lancaster Bomber will be used as a second kicker.
Spirit of Valor will set off like a bat out of hell and will be followed by Lancaster Bomber who will kick into overdrive once Spirit has been broken to ensure the pace is very good to get the best from Churchill. Churchill will be the one team Coolmore want to win for stallion value etc. They won’t worry if Lancaster Bomber is sacrificed to do so.I agree spirit has seamie on board to get the tactics just right and if somehow that fails theyll use LB To carry the pace on, if they where serious about LB as a potential winner they wouldnt have the jockey bookings in such a wayward manner albeit donnacha has proven up to the task, have to agree with you nathan on this
I don’t think that tactics will be that relevant. Spirit of valid is there to ensure a decent pace and Lancaster bomber to keep the gallop up. On form only barney Roy will trouble Churchill and I hope it’s a great battle between them. Barney Roy looked potentially top class in the greenham. You can always get odd results in the guineas as when not beat kingman but Churchill and Lancaster bomber have proved they act on the course. Wouldn’t be surprised if Lancaster bomber was in the first four. My head says Churchill but my heart says barney Roy as excelebration is one of my favourite horses.
I am not sure why Al Wukair is being dismissed on the form front. The colt is unbeaten and readily beat the Lagardere winner in the Prix Djebel. He could be anything and the trainer only brings one over when he feels there is a realistic chance of collecting.
The Greenham Barney Roy won looked a two horse race coming into it. Dream Castle had Barney Roy under pressure early doors and then hit the wall to allow his Godolphin teammate to stay on past him.
It is interesting that Godolphin have chose to take Barney Roy on again, over this extra furlong. Do they really believe that he reverse form with the help of a hood, or are they trying to bolster their overall challenge for the race? I would have thought Barney Roy would have gone solo here if confidence was sufficient.
Eminent seems the weakest of the market leaders in the betting. While he has done nothing wrong, a repeat of his Craven run will not suffice here. Rivet does not even run here and he was 10 lbs below his mark in the Racing Post Trophy, based on Racing Post ratings. War Decree and Larchmont Lad largely flopped in the Craven, leaving it a modest contest in terms of strength in depth. While Eminent is exciting and could well jump forward another notch, I think we have to worry if there are faster ones in the field.
No doubt Dream Castle will be restrained this time, despite probably being the fastest horse in the race. How many of O’Brien’s are pacemakers seems open to debate but Dream Castle should have a good pace to try to settle behind. It is going to boil down to which horse can close best in the final two furlongs.
I am backing Al Wukair to finish best and wear down Barney Roy, with Churchill a solid enough third and Eminent just done for toe in 4th place.
1. Al Wukair
2. Barney Roy
3. ChurchillGood luck to all.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Fortunately, I’m already on Barney Roy at the big prices and to be honest even if I wasn’t I would snap up the 4/1. The horse looks tailor made for the Guineas. He couldn’t have been more impressive when slamming 2 subsequent winners at Haydock over the trip last year and surely would have won by daylight if the Greenham was over a furlong further. The runner-up Dream Castle is a serious racehorse who himself finished well clear of the remainder. I wonder if Blue Point wasn’t owner by Godolphin whether the Commonwealth Cup wouldn’t be the main target? He’s a magnificent specimen of a racehorse, has a great galloping stride and I believe is capable of running down or running away from whoever hit’s the front first. Richard Hannon has already backed the horse for the race over the winter and James Doyle was told by Sean Levey that this is one of the best work horses in the yard.
But like Steve I’m also a bit of an Al Wukair fan. Fabre said he wouldn’t have minded if the horse was defeated in the prep such was the need to get a run into the colt and the fact he sprinted past a Group 1 winner with disdain says all about his chances. The worry is the likely lively surface but connections seem to be frothing with anticipation and to me looks a star of the season even if he doesn’t deliver in the Guineas.
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