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Indeed it does scream upset, however it is an exciting race. Last years 2,000 guineas turned out to be a really good one, but became very much a case of Henry vs New Approach and Ravens Pass for the rest of the season at prices where you wouldnt really want to back either. Very much a spectators season rather than a betting season with the milers IMO.
My idea of as weak guineas is a load of horses rated about 105 against an odds on shot rated about 115 who wins and goes on to dominate the season with very average performances with short priced victories.
However this years is not like that, there are several horses rated between 110 and 120, who largely look to want different conditions, the race is wide open and unless it throws up something genuinely special then it should be quite a good season for the milers as if the ground keeps changing as they meet each other then so too should the milers crown, and the winning prices each time shouldnt be too bad either.
As good it is having a Henrythenav vs Ravens Pass season to watch and say "that is a good horse", I dont back at odds on so I generally prefer a Footsteps/Dubawi/ Soviet Song/Divine Proportions/ Rakti/ Shamardal/ Proclamation/Starcraft season so I can actually have a bet.
I have now backed Sea the Stars and Evasive.
John Oxx’s handful of runners in England since 2000 have produced as said above a 3rd in the 2000 Guineas, also a win in the St James Palace Stakes and the King George (twice) the Derby and a 3rd in the Derby. Very good record at the top level. I think Sea the Stars is more an 8-10f colt rather than a 10-12f colt. Hopefully he’ll be good.
I have already lost now because Intense Focus is no longer coming, I’m getting to thinking I should not bother with Ante Post 2000 Guineas bets, the only luck I have had with them was Footstepsinthesand at 20/1 and Rock of Gibraltar at 14/1.
Hi guys
This was in an earlier thread I put up & is very interesting.
Fallon says Mastercraftsman wants faster going-his action says faster not as in Danehills usual liking for slower going.
Here is what Fallon says about the classicsHis thoughts were that Delegator will need the run of the race, held up & these kinds of horses need a lot of luck in running.
He reckons Mastercraftsmans a nap as Ballydoyle like to race up with the pace & if he had a choice to ride its that.
Fantasia for the 1000 & Oaks double(has been riding her in work & reminds him of Oiuja Board) as she has wintered exceptionally well & feels like a "proper racehorse".
Fame & Glory for the Derby.
He is very strong on all three & his comments on Delegator are bang on.
Those are the three Fallon likes & would like to ride.
There have been a few like Delegator over the years who just havent gone on & done it.John Oxx hasn’t had a winner in UK since 2005 (last 8 horses all beaten including Arch Swing 3 times) so it’s not all rosy there.
Having said that, he is a trainer I respect a lot and I will probably back Sea The Stars each-way tomorrow.
So far I have
Lord Shanakill (75.0 win & 12.5 place)
Rip Van Winkle (backed at 8.4 & laid at 6.4 to win my stake on LS above)so I’m happy enough with them (at least until 3:15 tomorrow!)
Can’t see why Meehan was so worried aboud a firm surface, Delegator’s best runs lst term were on good-firm.
Of course Fallon is right but isn’t he stating the obvious. Delegator (a hold up horse) will need luck in running. Just hope Spencer does not think he can do to a Group 1 field what he did in the Craven. If it is not a fast run race he’d better be nearer the pace.
So Mastercraftsman will be ridden nearer the pace, but this in turn has it’s problems. If the early pace is too strong he’ll be in the wrong position (and Spencer the right one).
Mark
Value Is Everythingmy ratings for the race
130 delegator
118 finjann
118 mastercraftsman
117 rip van winkle
113 gan amhras
112 quqba
109 cityscape
106 lord shanakill
105 monitor closely
104 ashram
102 on our way
96 pure poetry
95 sea the stars
90 evasive
87 zafisio
82 imperial guest
69 oceans minstrelwill back delegator to win
and finjann ewHow the hell can you have Delegator 24lbs clear of Lord Shanakill tebob? You may need to rewatch the Dewhurst…
How the hell can you have Delegator 24lbs clear of Lord Shanakill tebob? You may need to rewatch the Dewhurst…
bulwalk i have answered this question before my rating are not in pounds
i am not that clever
they are for the race only combining speed,racing post ratings and the official ratings.
together with prize money, class of last races,trainer jockey form,going,
all fed into my computer program and bingo hopefully a winner
How the hell can you have Delegator 24lbs clear of Lord Shanakill tebob? You may need to rewatch the Dewhurst…
bulwalk i have answered this question before my rating are not in pounds
i am not that clever
they are for the race only combining speed,racing post ratings and the official ratings.
together with prize money, class of last races,trainer jockey form,going,
all fed into my computer program and bingo hopefully a winnerDid you switch the computer on first?
I was wondering there…
FWIW I think delegator moves well enough on the ground to throw in a good performance (and have already backed him) but think to show his best he wants good ground. He won the Craven well enough on gd–fm but his action was far from perfect, and where a quicker pace will be right up his street tomorrow, I’d be worried that one who moves better on the ground may just do him for speed. With that in mind is price is very short, as you are effectively backing him for a win at current odds.
IMO he has an e/w chance at a favorites price.
Strictly on Dewhurst running i think Rip Van will beat them all, trouble is
i can see the Master running up with the pace and slowly making his way over to the stand rail, meanwhile Rip Van is going to be held up at the back
of the stands side group, Rip will come late and fast but the Master will have committed and hopefully hold on! i just hope we dont end up with a
Rock/ Hawk wing scenario, i want to see the Master win fair and square!
i hope Gan amrhas runs his race too, he is a proper Derby type! Delegator
wont even go off fav, if you could get Evens, Rip Van in a match with Delegator, i would take it all day!Just watch the dewhurst for the 1st time since oct,and i was very impressed with rvw under hands and heels and he’s gaining grd rapidly towards the finish.conenctions must be very confident i dont imagine that they would be running him with the problem he has had if they didnt think he would go very close
Noticed that Ladbrokes – seldom wrong about all things Ballydoyle – go an ominous best-priced 4s about RVW, and they’re fielding as if they can get the first 3 in the market beat. Perhaps this is going to be the year of the longshot.
Hope so, i’m with Evasive, more because i can’t back any of the others except Sea of Stars. So that’ll be my 1-2.
I put my 2 1/2 points at a respectable price on Lord Shanakill.(i’d be chuffed with a place)
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