2000 Guineas 2009

Was really impressed with Delegator today, changed his path and quickened very impressively. Looked very green but at the same time looked to have the rough appearance of something decent.

That 40-1 is looking pretty good now Antepost King for someone how doesnt know what their looking at , hopefully the best bet Ive ever done in the guineas, but can always lay it off a bit.

I’m happy enough to be on the side of Evasive. I’m worried about O’Briens though.

Is that the same Rip Van Winkle that was beaten by Delegator at Newmarket last season?

Indeed something may have improved past the level that Delegator showed yesterday over the winter, however, it was impressive and probably as good as anything that has been shown so far, so it is hard to see delegator failing to figure to some degree at newmarket.

With Rip Van Winkle a lot has to be taken on the fact that he may have improved and may have the ability to compete in this sort of grade on a quick surface at 1 mile.

As everything stands Delegator looks the most likely winner on everything we have seen. That doesnt mean he will win, but he has some bloody good looking form, is fit ahead of the race and deserves to be favorite.

Good looking form? He beat a 76 horse 3 lengths yesterday. Also nobody seems to be too bothered by the fact that Spencer will ride him in similar fashion on Guineas day. Thats a big negative for me, small problems become big ones at Group 1 level.

Not a great asseessment Cav, the second may have been rated 76 going into yesterdays race, however he had only ever raced once and was unbeaten, so to say he was a 76 horse is slightly assumptive IMO. Not only that but sans frontieres finished in a heap with two horses both rated 100 or more going into the race.

The fact that the 2nd 3rd and 4th finished in a heap and that the time was slow on a quick surface makes Delegators performance all the more impressive, as you dont usually win slow paced, or untesting, races by decent margins and he didnt just beat them by the given distance, he changed his course (which would no doubt have cost lengths) and then quickened fairly easily.

He’s no certainty by any means, and I’d be surprised if a few others havent improved over the winter but thats as good a piece of form from the winner as I have seen for this race.

I fully agree that 3-1 is far too short and I expect that those firms that have went 3-1 and 7-2 would rather that those who fancy him take their custom to the other firms. However there is still a bit of 5-1 which isnty overly bad.

The Craven form often has a tendency to be turned over IMO because it is often run on a completely different surface to the guineas, and people tend to rush in to back something which wins by 3 lengths on the worse side of good ground, which isnt that hard on that sort of surface. However this years craven was on a similar surafce to what you would expect at newmarket and he looks like a horse who handles the conditions very well.

Regarding pace, IMO a faster pace will actually suit Delegator, IMO in the dewhurst the balance tipped heavily towards those with a speedier profile and that was what beat both Delegator and Rip Van Winkle.

At the same time however I would expect Delegator to confirm that form everytime on gd-fm at 1 mile. IMO Rip Van Winkle is no mug, and realising that early on last season, I think because of his pedigree AOB thought he had a Teofilo or New Approach on his hands. However, as his 2yo season proved to me, as good as he may be, he is someway short of both those horses.

With Delegator available at 5-1 with a few firms and Rip Van Winkle at a bext priced 8-1 I’d take Delegator everytime. At the same time I think that there is better value to be had when looking at the e/w shots. Delegator is the only horse currently under 10-1 that I actually like for this race (Evasive looks a likely type, however he has had an interupted prep and IMO looked like the type who could really have done with having a trial). Arazan and outwards looks to be where any value is to be had.

Is that the same Rip Van Winkle that was beaten by Delegator at Newmarket last season?

Yes the very same race won by Intense Focus.

That race is not exactly a great guide to the Guineas.

Despit being Bolger trained there has been no interest in the winner for the Guineas at all He is currently available at 25/1.

I would suggest Delegator 5th finishing 1/2 length ahead of 6/4 fav RVW is not very significant. Certainly wuldn’t be my way off assessing which horse is most likley to be the best 3 year old.

If you think Delegator was backward last season you should have along hard look at Rip Van Winkle. Gangly, unfurnished and looked in need of a good feed. Far from the complete horse IMO.

I’ve watched Mastercraftsmen and Rip Van Winkle many times this week and I am totally convinced the latter is most likely to be a classic winner.

You have doe really well backing D at 33/1 but I thougt he beat sweet fanny adams the other day and will have to improve a awful lot more to be a factor in the Guineas.

Actually I find it farly easy to judge a horse from video. Especially when there are a few other horses around him/her Colin.

The way he moves, holds himself whether he is well balanced or not.

Of course I have’t seen Rip Van Winkle this season but most horse do strengthen up from 2 to 3 and knowing AOB he will no doubt have improved the horse.

Video also gives you a great opportunity to replay the race and look how others were going at the time. Like Delegator didn’t so much shoot past Hills horse, he stopped dead. Something you most likley would miss first time round.

Been doing it from TV and on the gallops for more years than I care to remember.

P.S. Don’t worry Colin if I have got it wrong and Rip Van Winkle gets stuffed I’ll sneak back and delete the posts Just remember you heard it here first "JM rides Rip Van Winkle"

I’m disappointed that Crowded House is being aimed at the Dante rather than the Guineas, and get the distinct impression that this race will take little winning. I’m not a fan of Rip Van Winkle (having travelled strongly he ultimately made hard work of beating Cuis Ghaire) and remain unconvinced by both Mastercraftsman and Delegator.

I backed Spring of Fame at 66/1 following his return at Wolverhampton (thankfully he failed to win the Kentucky Derby qualifier at Kempton and so will be sent to Newmarket), but have also had some interest in both Ashram and Sea The Stars. I remain slightly dubious about the former’s participation, given that he’s another talented juvenile to have been snaffled by Godolphin, but there’s do doubting how impressive he was in winning the Somerville Stakes at the beginning of October (I don’t think Ryan Moore was particularly good on him behind Intense Focus). The later, trained by John Oxx, really took the eye in beating Mouryan in the Beresford and Recharge certainly hasn’t done the form any harm. He likely needs further than a mile, but the combination of a strong pace and stiff finish should suit.

Spring of Fame @ 66/1
Ashram @ 33/1
Sea The Stars @ 33/1

Spring Of Fame won’t run
Ashram probably won’t run
Sea The Stars won’t run

Oh dear

Very useful, Black Type, a revealing insight.

Sea The Stars was always an unlikely runner, hence the big price and small stake, but on what grounds are the other two non-starters?