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Minding looks a bigger certainty after yesterday assuming she’s trained on. She looked magnificent in the fillies mile and I’ve never seen Ryan moore smile so much. I hope she replicates her run at Newmarket.
I think only Lumiere can stop Minding winning this Guineas. She may have the speed to do it and there is nothing else I can see to touch the fav if she is fit.
Aidan has reported he is happy with her fitness, describing her as fairly forward at this time.
Rather than take the odds for the Guineas at 7/4, I have followed Aidan’s comment that she definitely heads for the Oaks and found odds for the double.
I reckon a commanding win at Newmarket will see her odds on for the Oaks and with nothing really setting that market alight it is worth having a dabble on the double.
Bet365 go 8/1 on Minding winning the two races and that appeals to me as a wager with a potential upside on the “looking good” front.
Minding 8/1 to win 1000 Guineas and Oaks (Bet365)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve been sitting on that Guineas-Oaks double for some time too. In my opinion, Minding is closer to a sure thing than Air Force Blue actually is. The latter may well be the superior racehorse as we’ve been told, but he has worthy rivals to contend with. Stormy Atlantic and Blue De Vega are sill quite unexposed in my mind and could be absolutely anything. So, there’s still a possibility that there may be something special other than AFB in that field.
But, I just don’t see who exactly Minding is supposed to be wary of. I know there has been a lot of talk about Lumiere but even assuming she gets the trip, her form is nowhere near that of Minding. Besharah finished less than a length behind Lumiere in the Cheveley, with Alice Springs not too far behind. Both fillies have been come out this season and been beaten favourites. On the other hand, Minding’s form has just been boosted with Nathra’s easy win in the Nell Gwynn. And, Marenko, only 8th in the Fillies Mile, has bagged the other major Guineas trial beating Besharah. The only worry for me would be about the shape AOB gets her in for the race. Wouldn’t be the first time a potential Oaks filly lines up in the Guineas short of fitness (see Qualify and Tapestry), but the words coming from AOB have been positive so far.
Trixia runs at Chantilly tomorrow and probably needs to win to entertain the notion of travelling to Newmarket for the 1000 Guineas.
Thinking about it logically it seems unlikely that they will run her in the UK with only 11 days between the two races and they will probably wait for the French version. As Jim Bowen used to say “That’s the gamble” but at least we will see tomorrow whether she would have been a realistic candidate.
Antonoe has opened favourite in the early shows for the Prix De La Grotte and that is questionable for me after her pelvic injury last year in the Prix Marcel Boussac won by Ballydoyle. Antonoe had looked a real top drawer filly before that and she could yet fulfil what looked like Group 1 promise but she faces a filly in Trixia who has looked potentially special herself. It’s far from a two horse race but I will be a bit disappointed if one of them doesn’t prevail.
At the opening odds of 7/2 I felt Trixia was the value call in the circumstances.
Godolphin have said they may yet run First Victory in the Guineas but I tend to think that is indicative that they don’t have anything else good enough to run, rather than any real feeling she can win the race. Bookmakers have her out to 33/1, so they seem less concerned than Godolphin about how her next, key, piece of work goes.
John Gosden is very much a pessimist but he’s also a realist and from his demeanour I would say he will be looking to aim Nathra at something else.
It simply looks a 2 horse race and I can’t see that changing unless one of the French horses puts in a real stellar show tomorrow and gets the nod for Newmarket after the dust (or mud) settles.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Minding will win it easily, there is no danger. Lumiere second best in the race but will struggle to get the mile in my opinion. Lumiere going to lead from start to finish over the mile? I highly doubt. Minding will win this then take the Oaks.
The Prix de la Grotte has produced some very talented performers in recent years, and this renewal appears to be full of potential.
I’m hoping the well related Gherdaiya performs with credit this afternoon. She would prefer better ground, but looks the type to make a lovely 3YO, and she is the most beautiful looking filly.
This guy is a machine. All he does is work out and pick winners. Talk about fit. You should see him without his shirt off, serious side of beef.
The only worry for me would be about the shape AOB gets her in for the race. Wouldn’t be the first time a potential Oaks filly lines up in the Guineas short of fitness (see Qualify and Tapestry), but the words coming from AOB have been positive so far.
It might well be the only worry but history would suggest it is a massive concern and almost certainly why she isn’t any shorter in the market.
I can’t remember O’Brien converting one top class 2yo filly into a Classic winning miler. It is that much more important (as far as they are concerned) to the Coolmore set-up to big-up the colts.
Ballydoyle will run in the 1000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien stated that she had pleased him in her work recently.
Having said she would probably head to France for their version, I wonder why he has had a rethink?
Is she more forward than Minding at this stage? Did Aidan see Qemah, who the trainer considered unlucky in the Marcel Boussac, win impressively during the week and feel that the French race may actually end up having more strength in depth than the Newmarket renewal.
Good news for Ballydoyle ante-post players and perhaps a few shudders from Minding backers who had felt their filly was shaping as the sole runner from the O’Brien yard.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Got to be careful with Aidan, probably set it up for Ballydoyle. You never know with him.
Ballydoyle will run in the 1000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien stated that she had pleased him in her work recently.
Having said she would probably head to France for their version, I wonder why he has had a rethink?
Is she more forward than Minding at this stage? Did Aidan see Qemah, who the trainer considered unlucky in the Marcel Boussac, win impressively during the week and feel that the French race may actually end up having more strength in depth than the Newmarket renewal.
Good news for Ballydoyle ante-post players and perhaps a few shudders from Minding backers who had felt their filly was shaping as the sole runner from the O’Brien yard.
Didn’t anyone bother to ask him about the change in running plans (if indeed there was a change) when he already has the short-priced favourite? It would seem logical to try and win two Classic races rather than one but the early fillies Classics have never appeared to be a Coolmore priority.
Perhaps he wants to fire two darts because he doesn’t trust himself to get either filly fit enough to win?
Whatever, any previously confident Minding backers are a lot less confident now and no doubt scrambling to get out on Ballydoyle.
Watched the morning line earlier and it was an interesting moment since Aiden seemed to make his mind up on the show that Ballydoyle would run in the guineas.
And no wonder. Her final serious gallop was shown live on the programme and what a breathtaking gallop it was. In a couple of strides she cleared away from her galloping companion like it was standing still. I immediately backed her after that and her price keeps dropping.
You can see the gallop here:https://twitter.com/Channel4Racing/status/723790086660231169
It could be the Nashwan moment for the 2015 era, I’m referring to the moment when Nashwan put in a brilliant gallop before it’s run in the guineas and everyone from in the yard then backed it.
Now nothing is secret but that can only be a good thing for punters. Have more gallops televised so we know how these horses are going at home and can bet accordingly.
Nothing is secret? Good luck with that one.
It really depends on how much you are influenced by gallops.
Even if was the most striking gallop ever it still doesn’t answer the question as to why she is now going to Newmarket when they already have the strong favourite.
Just how impressive Ballydoyle was in that gallop depends on who the galloping companion is and/or the time achieved. Anyone know the identity/time?
Otherwise it looks stage managed for the cameras and/or an excuse for a change of target already decided on.
“Listen, this filly has so much speed, just look at her”.
Value Is EverythingSometimes you have to believe your own eyes. Does it really matter what she beat. Just look at that gallop! If that doesn’t impress you Ginger you’re in the wrong game mate!
In any case, her credentials add up. Won a group one in France. Beat her stablemate Minding into second in the Moyglare.
Full-sister to last years 2000 guineas winner. A galloping style of racing which should be ideally suited to Newmarket.
I’m not saying she’s a certainty by any means, you’d have to hugely respect Minding given the way she won the fillies mile, and the fact that she’ll relish a stiff mile at Newmarket, and the Johnston filly of course
Just how impressive Ballydoyle was in that gallop depends on who the galloping companion is and/or the time achieved. Anyone know the identity/time?
Otherwise it looks stage managed for the cameras and/or an excuse for a change of target already decided on.
“Listen, this filly has so much speed, just look at her”.
I dont care who Ballydoyle galloped with or what the time was the simple fact is if the ground is quick she wins the Guineas and if its not ‘Minding’ wins.That sums up this years race.
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