1000 Guineas 2016

[darren83]

Heard a few things on twitter that MINDING and BALLYDOYLE will go straight to Newmarket no prep run for them because they give weight away at 7f races in trail.I like MINDING to have a prep because fillys trained by AOB normally win 1000 guineas after they had a run.He don’t have same strike rate compared to star 3yo colt who goes for 2000 guineas.

[Zarkava]

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[Nathan Hughes]

darren83 wrote:

Heard a few things on twitter that MINDING and BALLYDOYLE will go straight to Newmarket no prep run for them because they give weight away at 7f races in trail.I like MINDING to have a prep because fillys trained by AOB normally win 1000 guineas after they had a run.He don’t have same strike rate compared to star 3yo colt who goes for 2000 guineas.

Mixed results for O’Brien regarding the prep or no prep
Lumiere has apparently started to grow wings and connections are in talks about re-naming her Pegasus

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[chashaul]

nemoralia must come into that equation

[Zarkava]

Turret Rocks finally got big enough on the exchanges to warrant a back. Ignore Jim Bolger 1000 Guineas runners at your peril…

[The Ante-Post King]

The Ante-Post King wrote:

Darren,I’ve been away to Norfolk but have watched Mindings demolition of a good field last Friday.You have cetainly spotted one there pal,well done for nailing your colours to just one mast.Its incredible how low key Aiden starts these fillies and yet before the end of their 2yo campaigns they are Group 1 winners.I believe on Fast ground Ballydoyle will easily win the 1000 gns,however on soft she’s no chance and its yours for the taking with Minding.On good ground it will be close between the pair but your filly certainly has a round action and the ground at Newmarket certainly had cut in it.Mark Johnston will train ‘Lumiere’ specifically for the 1000gns and she will be 100% for the day,our fillies on the other hand could be well short of their best if Team Coolmore aren’t bothered about early season targets for their big 2,that is the dilemma we’ll ponder over this winter.Good luck anyway.

Well Darren if I was a betting man I’d make your filly 1/2 to turn up at Newmarket and mine 2/1 and that is simply because it all depends on the Weather.Yours wants Rain,Mine wants Sunshine.It was always going to be a bet on the bloody weather for this one I’m afraid pal but I cant see them both turning up.

[stevecaution]

Aidan O’Brien said yesterday that Ballydoyle probably goes for the French 1000 Guineas.

He also stated that Air Force Blue will not run in any of the trials and will go straight to the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.

Joseph said at the end of December that Air Force Blue had filled out into a massive specimen and Aidan confirmed yesterday that they are very happy with where they have the colt at this stage.

He will surely take a dickens of a beating if he has trained on.

The biggest threat I see to Minding is if any of the French fillies come over. Some will fancy Lumiere but I think she needs to make quite a bit of improvement and may just be found out at a mile, particularly if the ground has cut in it.

I am not sure about Minding getting the Oaks trip and even less confident about Ballydoyle lasting out the mile and a half.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[mickeyjp]

If minding is forward enough she will take some stopping in the Guineas. I didn’t see the breeze up of the obrien horses but if Air Force blue has filled out and kept his form he looks very very exciting for the Guineas and the season ahead.

[The Ante-Post King]

stevecaution wrote:

Aidan O’Brien said yesterday that Ballydoyle probably goes for the French 1000 Guineas.

Aidan O’Brien is a lot like Willie Mullins Steve.Worse still he runs his horses in Classics short of peak fitness.Sadly for me my filly has drifted out to 10’s on the machine but Ladbrokes still go 4/1.I still believe if the weather at Newmarket is like the past several years then the ground will be plent lively and that will suit Ballydoyle,it wont suit Darrens horse Minding and anyone taking 9/4 about her now likes taking risks.

[stevecaution]

I have had a few quid each-way on Trixia at 33/1 for the Guineas.

This unbeaten daughter of Siyouni won the Group 3 Prix Des Reservoirs last October in taking fashion and she is rated 112 already, so not that far off the leading lights in the betting for Newmarket.

Normally I would be wary of the French fillies travelling over but during the week trainer Alain De Royer Dupre stated that he is looking to Newmarket with the filly he had sent to him after her latest win. Formerly trained by Frederic Rossi it seemed a statement of intent to switch an unbeaten horse to a bigger named trainer.

The plan is the Prix Imprudence at Maisons Laffitte on the 7th of April and if all goes well she goes to Newmarket.

33/1 seemed too big for a filly with so much promise and whose plans are pointed at the race. If she were to win the trial and got the nod from connections, I am sure her odds would be into single figures for the Guineas.

1000 Guineas Trixia 33/1 each way 1/4 odds 1-2-3 (SkyBet)

You can view her last race here and she looks a filly with more to come. (Orange colours, nose-banded and nearest camera as they leave the stalls)

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/1788/

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Bobby Bluebell]

Thanks Steve for the link

She has a lovely turn of foot to say the least!

Do you think she needs cut in the ground to be effective?

[stevecaution]

Bobby Bluebell wrote:

Thanks Steve for the link

She has a lovely turn of foot to say the least!

Do you think she needs cut in the ground to be effective?

She has won on good ground but that was only a 3 runner race and I don’t have a video for that race. However on her third start, in Listed company, she ran on good to soft ground and it looked to me that she went well on that surface. I have the link to that race below and in some ways she impresses more, as she comes from behind, weaves through easily and then clears away in good style for a cosy win.

Trixia clearly gets a mile and she looks a filly with ample scope to train on. She may need to improve about 10lbs to reach Minding’s level but will Aidan’s filly go to Newmarket cherry ripe? At least with Trixia we know she is having a prep race and it’s worth risking to my eyes that she will land the trial and make a move forward in the Guineas betting.

At 33/1 I am hardly advising a mortgage job here but simply suggesting there might be value in a talented looking filly from off the radar.

Here is here 3rd race, it’s not the best quality video but does the job!

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

SkyBet have cut Trixia to 25/1, must have been the power of my 25p each-way that caused that

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Bobby Bluebell]

I had a few quid on him as well Steve

[Bobby Bluebell]

Not certain to run in the Imprudence per the trainer. We might have done our dough

[stevecaution]

Bobby Bluebell wrote:

Not certain to run in the Imprudence per the trainer. We might have done our dough

Where was that information from Bobby?

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Bobby Bluebell]

From the Racing Post. Trainer was quoted as saying that she was not a certain runner in the Imprudence. It was part of the Pricewise feature of this race.

[Author]

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