1000 Guineas 2022

Tenebrism may be by sprinter Carravagio but is out of Immortal Verse.
Immortal Verse is by sprinter Pivotal but she was a top class miler…
And IV’s dam Side Of Paradise stayed 1m2f herself, with both sire and dam’s sire stamina influences Saddlers Wells and Mill Reef.

So on breeding alone there’s a fair chance Tenebrism will stay a mile.
Fact she raced at only sprint distances at two, not that encouraging on first look, but only had two races including finishing really well to win the Chieveley Park going away. Suggesting strongly she’ll get at least 7f.

So imo although there is a doubt about Tenebrism staying it isn’t that she is an unlikely stayer (ie has a better than 50% chance of staying).

However, there is also a doubt in my mind about the Cheveley Park form. Three of the first four home racing nearest the stand rail which seemed favoured on the day. Could be flattered in respect of how much she’s better than the other fillies she didn’t race with.

As for a good home gallop… She’s shown more speed in her two year old season than any other Guineas candidate O’Brien has had. If galloping against the trainer’s other milers at home I’d personally be disappointed if Tenebrism didn’t come out on top – and by some way. Does not mean she’d necessarily beat her stable companions in an actual mile race, let alone everyone else.

And when assessing trainers comments I like to consider whether the trainer will be confident about winning that particular race. O’Brien has won 5 of the last 6. So he’s likely to think winning the 1000 is pretty easy and be very (over?) optimistic / confident in his comments. Gosden has had only one win in many years. Compared to other Classics Gosden is likely to think the 1000 difficult and therefore be pessimistic on his chances – both in comments to the press and owners.

I think the big sign for Tenebrism will be if she is the only entry. Concert Hall ran yesterday and looks Oaks bound, so that leaves just Tuesday who will definitely get the trip.

Any concerns about the trip i think they will run Tuesday also.The only one i recall of Coolmore running only one in any classic was a couple of years ago in this race.

Inspiral confirmed as out of the race by Gosden.

No surprise to me as stated last night.

Cashet, 16/1.

Could be argued that last year’s BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (see below link) has very good form as the 2nd (Malavath) and 4th (Cashet) won their 3-year old debuts at Group 3 level. Cashet ran a great race and just tired at the very end. However, on her seasonal debut she was rated “perfectly” to win going away. I’m a big believer in, and supporter of, Cashet’s trainer, George Boughey, who will have her ready no doubt.

However, the winner (Pizza Bianca) lost her debut race yesterday in New York. She finished 2nd to Consumer Spending who finished 6th beaten by about 2L in the same BC race.

I like Malavath for the Prix de Diane…

16 left in the race.

I liked Toy’s win at Cork even though the opposition wasn’t top notch. She looks a tough little nut and is from a good family. I wonder if they could send her here as well as the French equivalent. I’ve tried her at 33-1 ew.

Homeless Song goes to France