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Anybody else left a bit underwhelmed by Inspiral today?
Nominally a Group Two, her opposition in the May Hill looked barely Listed class but it still took her some time to put the race to bed. I’d need to see a lot more than that to be taking 6-1 for next year’s Guineas at this stage.
16-1 would be a more accurate reflection of her efforts so far.
I see her more as an oaks candidate than a guineas horse personally
And quite frankly after the radio silence from gosden on indigo girl I’m in no rush to be backing a gosden horse for a classic again
I have a working theory on Frankel as a sire albeit its a small sample to go off the top of my head and it does need some more investigation, his more precocious fillies (Group race winning fillies at 2) have not always delivered on what they promised as they’ve got older. Off the top of my head Quadrilateral, Fair Eva, Queen Kindly and East were all very good 2 year olds who didn’t get any better at 3.
I can’t explain the reasoning behind this theory of mine even if its a real thing but possibly to do with Frankel’s fiery personality and fillies being supposedly harder to train in general? I remember being very against Quadrilateral because of what had happened last time Roger Charlton had a high profile Frankel filly who was reasonably well fancied for the Guineas (Fair Eva)… perhaps I’d be inclined to give John Gosden a bit more respect in that regard as he has already had a classic winning Frankel filly (Anapurna) but she barely raced at 2.
Anyway its food for thought not necessarily one I would expect others to buy in to.
Interesting theory theTinMan. A few other examples that don’t fit the brief (such as Veracious, Snow Lantern, Alpinista) but I think you may be onto something with the suggestion that they may be more difficult to train, not least because there seem to be far fewer Frankel fillies even making it onto the track compared to colts, even allowing for the fact that a Frankel mare may have a value even without racing. Like you, I haven’t explored this, it’s just my perception.
Certainly seems an average crop of two year olds so far. After snowfalls amazing improvement this year I’m sceptical of two year old form translating to three. Poetic flare, mother earth and many other group one winners you could never have predicted on two year old form too. Maybe its a permanent change in the way horses are trained/ develop.
There are very few standout 2yos
The fields for the moyglare and national stakes on Sunday show that
Think this year is just a quiet one for 2 yr olds – we have been spoiled in recent years with some explosive performances and it maybe a year where an under the radar one raced maiden winner might make massive improvement from 2 to 3.
Fillies are just harder to train in general anyway but I think with Inspiral she is very much a work in progress, like most Frankel’s they take a bit of settling in the early stages and she wasn’t helped by a slow early gallop. Her next race may give us some more clues as she has a Rockfel and Fillies Mile entry but I would be surprised if they drop her back to 7F and it will be interesting to see how she copes with easier ground that she will likely encounter in the Fillies Mile.
I do think a quick ground 1000g in early May could catch her out and the Oaks may stretch her stamina especially if she continues not to settle in the early part of races, I think she could be a 10F horse (French Oaks?) as two of her Dansili half siblings won over an extended 9.5F & 10F (one was placed over 12F) and the other sibling (by Intello) was a specialist 7F.
I thought the same as you LD73 after watching her last couple of starts, that Inspiral might end up a 10f horse next year.
“Anybody else left a bit underwhelmed by Inspiral today?”
I’ve commented on this on another thread but, somewhat unfortunately, VTC has dumped said thread in the 666th layer of the Underworld just to make absolutely sure no one ever reads it.
Won’t stop me updating it, though!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“VTC has dumped said thread in the 666th layer of the Underworld just to make absolutely sure no one ever reads it.”
If he dumped it any deeper tank might pop up in the thread
Having followed the game 40 years plus, I would say 2yos are no more or less likely to train on as 3yo than they have ever been.
If you look at weight-for-age a 2yo gets from a 4yo on Dewhurst Day and compare it with wfa a 3yo gets from a 4yo on Guineas weekend you will see the substantial improvement made in the interim and that’s just a mean average.
There are enormous individual fluctuations within that mean.
It’s a hit and miss business.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Pleased that Discoveries won the Group 1. Tuesday finished a short head 2nd to her when Discoveries had the benefit of a run.
I thought Concert Hall was one to take from the Moyglare but probably more with a view to the Oaks next year maybe than the Guineas with her pedigree on the dam side, stayed on very nicely I thought from rear.
Normally it’s about this time of year when things start to take shape with the 2YO Coolmore pecking order and normally stick with those.Had quite a lot turn up for the races but they all mostly ended up getting beat by a stablemate. It’s hard enough trying to pick them out now never mind who will be the best next spring, but had my first bet on this race.
Tenebrism @ 40/1
Won on her debut back in March which is quite unusual and then seemed to be heading to Royal Ascot as a hot FAV for a couple of races but picked up an injury and been off since.Been entered lately in all the big G1’s here and in France so must be back on track you would hope.
It was only an egg and spoon race but i thought it was a bit of a jaw dropping performance especially over 5F. Half expecting her to come back for that Cheveley Park race and head of to France for the Boussac.
Agree with Tinman also with that Concert Hall for the Oaks, very eyecatching that one, and that will be getting backed soon as well.
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