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Whats Listens media podcasts?
His stable tour on Atttheraces is where I got the quotes/info from.
FF how can a horse winning not be value? That statement just doesn’t make sense! I think what you mean is more not backing horses like this over a longer period of time is a better strategy?!
Anyway I think AOB gets a bad reputation with some people to be honest, I think he gives a lot of information out actually and of course he speaks highly of his horses because a) they’re usually the best and b) every trainer does. People pick on AOB because he’s the best basically and don’t like the dominance of coolmore but that can cloud judgements.
Do I think SB is value, no way, but what he said about her is a very unusual thing for him to say and if she turns out average then he’ll look a little silly and I don’t think he’s in the business of making himself look silly.
Your statement is the one that doesn’t make sense frenchy, you contradict yourself
Of course all winners aren’t value
Just like all losers aren’t bad value
The second part of your statement is exactly how id define value
Frenchy – if there was a coin toss and you had £100 on tails, it came up tails, and you got paid out £120 @ 1/5, was that automatically good value as it was a winner?
BUY THE SUN
I know what you mean, but if we’re talking about one specific race then the object of that race is to pick the winner. It has nothing to do with value.
Value comes into it if we’re betting over a large number of races which most people do to be fair, but wording it how you did doesn’t make sense.
Anyway probably will go round in circles on that!
The coin toss analogy that everyone comes up with is irrelevant. There’s no logic or relevance of that to horse racing
More logical than your statement that any winner at any price is good value in isolation.
BUY THE SUN
It’s not because people’s definition of what good value is in a horse is widely variable whereas it’s clear with a 50/50 coin flip. It’s chalk and cheese comparing it.
To answer directly to your question TTC yes of course it would be value. It’s the definition of value, I’ve got more money than I started with, but you’re trying to compare value before and after an outcome which is literally impossible.
Not trying to be rude but you’re talking nonsense frenchy
Any punter worth his salt would completely disagree with what you are saying
Value is value win or lose
You only make money punting by finding the value by finding a horse whose odds don’t reflect what you think their winning chance is
Santa Barbara is not value win or lose
I think value is an individual thing.
If people dont like a horse, especially if odds are shorter than they think they should be, or shorter than they are prepared to back it at, then it is no value to them.
However, for me, as a backer at 9-2, a price I was happy to take, if its backed off the boards by race time then I feel i got some value.
Same with my antepost bets for Cheltenham or the National, if i got a bigger price than it is on the day i feel i got some value.
Ive heard pundits who dont like backing favourites. Seen the same on forums. They just dont like the price. Favourites often do win. But some dont like betting shorties as a rule, they just don’t like the price on offer. Which is fair enough, its up to them.
Value means a different thing to different people, a lot depends on how you bet and how you feel about a certain race.
There is no right or wrong answer.
Why did you think 9/2 was a good price Mike? Must just have been down to Listens comments I assume? Can’t be anything in the book or breeding.
BUY THE SUN
Nothing really stood out to me TTC when i was looking at the race before AOB’s comments about Santa Barbara. Once i had read them i backed her.
FF what you’re actually saying is that SB is not value to you individually. So over time you will not back these types of horses because for you individually the value is not good enough to make money.
As Mike said the definition of value in horse racing is an individual thing.
I’ll argue against your point and anyone else all day long. The name of this game is not to find ‘value’ because the definition of value is a completely subjective individual variable. The name of this game is to find winners first and foremost. You can’t spend value.
If SB wins by 5L as you say and let’s imagine she goes off at Evens. Are you seriously telling me that Mike taking 9/2 is not value?!
That is literally crazy talk!!
I dont think she will. You don’t think she will, therefore 9/2 to us isn’t value. Mike thinks she will so she’s value to Mike.
That’s before the event.
After the event she wins by 5L.
Is she value at 9/2 to do that?
Of course she is?!!
Frenchy if you bet every race saying “if the hotpot wins by 5ls” she was value then you are not betting value.
At the end of the day, it’s hard to see how you’d come about with 9/2 or whatever as value when she was something like double that earlier that day? The quotes after the race were very promising, and Aidan didn’t half wax lyrical. Besides that though, it’s hard to see where the angle is with her “value-wise”. How can you just base a bet off the trainer’s positive comments? Not saying Mike has by the way, but presumably some have given the market cuts.Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Jackh1092 “At the end of the day, it’s hard to see how you’d come about with 9/2 or whatever as value when she was something like double that earlier that day?”
Don’t think that matters in a person’s mind when the horse they fancy is now a 5-2 shot and could go shorter still. I got some value and the people who got bigger than 9-2 got value. Even those that got 4-1 got some value imo. Likewise with Minella Times using another example. I got 40s and botchy1 got 33s. We both think he could go well. Doesn’t matter that I got the better odds out of us 2, we both got some value as the horse has shortened a fair bit.
As I said before, a fair chunk of this ‘value’ argument is whether a person likes the horse’s chances in a race in the first place.
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