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I think MOT JUSTE wasn’t knocked about and will come on a ton for that!!
I know the winner was impressive but Varian was a bit non committed as to which was better!!
I am on MOT JUSTE 20/1 and IRIDESSA at the same price. I will be happy if they both turn up!!
Qabala …trouble uploading image.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...did you manage to get the 40-1 Qabala for the Guineas Triptych like me.
or may be even 66-1?I don’t think Qabala will boil over, and the 1f more should be no problem for her.
Just a word to David Egan: That was a fantastic ride from this young man
He must have been under quite a bit of pressure, but he did it very cool and professional
as the world class rider he is likely to become.
The Brits are really enviable in that department, here in Germany we don’t have such great riding talents.Looked a great performance, personally don’t rate the ones in behind all that much. Yes they ran to decent levels as 2yos, but none of them were on my mind for much this year tbh…
Can see the appeal of her as she’s very unexposed etc. but i do think there’s going to be a little recency bias in play here.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!What filly would you have down as beating her Jack?
It’s more that it’s a poor race than Qabala being a superstar, for all she has the potential to be in the fullness of time.
Skitter Scatter looks all over a 2YO type, Fairyland must have doubts staying and Just Wonderful hasn’t run yet (Bad for an AOB filly generally).
Fair point, Jack.
For me it’s not about the actual form shown. On basic form Qabala is a short price. It’s how she did it that’s so impressive. It wasn’t anything like a truly run race and therefore – in that respect – Qabala was disadvantaged coming from so far back, doing well to win at all from that position – let alone win so easily. When sectionals are taken in to account the rating can be upped quite a bit – because had there been equal fractions the probability is she’d have won even easier (by further/shown better form).However, although a “probability” she’s better than the distances suggest, this is horse racing and it is not yet certain. ie A speedy horse who settles well can be suited by a slowly run race even if not getting positional advantage… And we are talking about a daughter of Scat Daddy! Could’ve been better suited by the race than stable companion Mot Juste. On the face of it the second did not improve her form; but considering the slowish pace at 7f (Mot Juste has fair prospects of staying 1m4f let alone 1m) she ran better than I expected. ie Given even fractions over a furlong further Mot Juste may progress further.
Value Is EverythingI think Iridessa will be the one i’ll be backing for it. Probably be better down the line over further, but she’s 16s and has c+d form….
Agree on Fairyland, SS + JW.
Qabala 5-1. Looked a tool but to me she hasn’t beat much there.
JW 10-1. No prep as you say, and hardly standout form.
SS 10. Will she stay, and have progressed?
Fairyland 12s. same as SS
Dandhu 16/1. Trainer sounded negative on her + reappearance form not outstanding for me.
Iridessa 16/1. Will stay better probably, and might just find one sharper than her but, has the c+d form, nice reappearance too.Agree Ginge, she looks potentially very exciting, just think the price is a little bit of an overreaction. Clearly she could end up absolutely anything. I wouldn’t be backign her at 5s!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Fair shout, Jack. 3-4 wide wasn’t ideal, was a decent run considering.
Hard to tell how she’ll potentially go on being out of the first crop of ROTW. Good luck with her Iridessa ran better than I thought she would on 7f reappearance – on a surface that should’ve placed at least some emphasis on stamina at the trip. Easy winner there – Lady Kaya – was 2 lengths behind in the Moyglare and paid a handsome compliment to winner Skitter Scatter. As did Moyglare third – Hermosa – when getting closer to Iridessa in the Fillies Mile… Albeit Hermosa may have improved at the latter distance. Iridessa undoubtedly has excellent form, but sire Ruler Of The World is probably going to be a stamina influence and although dam was by speed influence Danehill, the grand dam was Starine (who beat Banks Hill and Islington in Breeders Cup F&M Turf over 1m2f). For me the probability of Iridessa being one of those milers at two who need further at three in order to show their very best – is extremely probable. That said, can understand why some want to take the chance at odds of around 15/1. Although won the Fillies Mile on a sound surface, the softer it is on May 5th the better her chance of making stamina pay.
Skitter Scatter is (like Qabala) by speed influence Scat Daddy, but she’s out of a 1m2f winner Dane Street who was by another 1m2f winner Street Cry… And – imo importantly – didn’t look to be going anywhere before staying on late in a strongly run 7f Moyglare. ie Way she runs suggests to me she’ll get a mile alright. Am on Skitter Scatter ante-post so am hoping for good things; but the thing am a little worried about is the stable merger. Reportedly moved over the road to the John Oxx yard. Been a good trainer – Sea The Stars etc in the past, but had an extremely poor season in 2018 and that may be something to do with a bad virus. So far this term a few have run well, but zero winners in 20 starts and – if memory serves – even in good years hasn’t hit form that early.
One I’d personally be totally against is Fairyland. How the …. can she stay a mile? By sprinter Kodiac out of a mare who was by sprinter Pivotal… And the dam is herself a half sister to Champion Sprinter Dream Ahead… And in 2018 Fairyland wasn’t raced further than 6f, winning Lowther and Cheveley Park by showing plenty of speed rather than staying on to win a 6f contest… And as Group 1’s go it wasn’t a particularly strong race either. Only positive I can see is name of the trainer, but is that enough?
Value Is Everythingwinning Lowther and Cheveley Park by showing plenty of speed rather than staying on to win a 6f contest
Must disagree there Ginge. 100% Fairyland won both those race by staying on well not by speed. She was headed in both races and fought back to win.
https://www.itv.com/racing/race-clips/fairyland-wins-the-lowther-stakes-in-a-photo-finish
Quite a good article about Fairyland’s breeding also if people are interested in that type of thing.
did you manage to get the 40-1 Qabala for the Guineas Triptych like me.
or may be even 66-1?
@mike007
I’d love to say 1 got the 66/1 for Qabala to win The Guineas Mike but sadly I’m not great at Ante Post backing I went early for Royal Intervention at 33/1 and she hasn’t been seen since
but I did have Qabala at 12/1 for The Nell Gwyn so pleased with tbat Now installed as short as 9/2 favourite I’m hoping she can break the hoodoo of the Nell Gwyn winner not winning the Guineas.
Also I’m not giving up on Mot Juste either as a possible winner Best of luck Mike you obviously saw what I did when Qabala won her Maiden last year, she’s unbeaten, she handles the course and she has a motor
…JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Fairyland is interesting. In the Lowther she was up front throughout and battled to win and in the Cheveley Park Stakes she gets headed and battles again to win. IMO both were won staying on well and not by speed which makes her interesting for this. O’Brien is on record as saying the Ballydoyle team have always seen Fairyland staying further and given her size and scope at two. Worse double figure price EW shots
Fairyland was headed but only by a minimal amount, Botchy/Charlie (by a head or neck – no more) and had always been up with a sound pace. ie Never outpaced at any stage. Therefore, imo she’s more about speed at the distance than stamina.
If Fairyland was ever “big” she wasn’t as an October two year old. Did she look big to you in those videos?
Yes, Fairyland’s half-sister Now Or Never (by Bushranger) just about stayed a mile when 4th in the Coronation Stakes (the Group 2 she later won in Australia was over 7f). Unlike Fairyland, Now Or Never was running well at 7f as a two year old.
Fairyland’s full brother is a sprinter who’s at least as effective at 5f as 6.
Think that article about breeding/stamina is a bit biased in its conclusion. Seems to be clutching at Now Or Never – one straw in a haystack of sprinters. Champion sprinter Dream Ahead, Land Of Dreams won the fastest Group race in the country (Goodwood’s King George), Atletico, Kodiac etc etc.
Even the form isn’t anything special, beating The Mackem Bullet by a nose at York and a neck at Newmarket. What price would The Mackem Bullet be in here? Cheveley Park third So Perfect didn’t exactly advertise the form in the Fred Darling either. Style of racing (so far) doesn’t give Fairyland much hope either – likes to get on with things and not going to be easy harnessing that – although if anyone can AOB can. Wouldn’t take a blind bit of notice what the trainer says. Knowing that if telling everyone Fairyland is in all probability a sprinter (or at most a 7f filly) AOB would get a whole lot of criticism for just running in the Guineas. It’s worth having a go – just in case – but highly unlikely to pay off.
Can’t see how Fairyland can be described as having a “fair chance of staying a mile”… Unless you’ve a different definition of “fair” you’re all in fairyland.
Value Is EverythingCan’t speak for Charlie but i do not think we are saying Fairyland will stay, more so she might. Not much difference as anyone backing Calyx or Ten Sovereigns really, in the other race.
If Fairyland was ever “big” she wasn’t as an October two year old. Did she look big to you in those videos?
I don’t know, but her trainer thought so. I know he wears glasses, but i’m pretty sure he knows if a horse is big or not.
No doubting Qabala has a serious shout here, and isn’t a prohibitive price at 7/2, but I think
there is still a bit of value about in East at 16/1. She won well on her 2nd start
(having previously won at Hamilton) in a group 3 at Saint-Cloud, but it was her last race at
Churchill Downs in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf that impressed me the most. She
had to take a pull from a poor draw and settle at the back of field early on. She was travelling
as well as anything, perhaps with the exception of the odds on favourite who led from the start,
and moved well through the field before finding a bit of trouble 2 out and then running on again
to take 2nd close home. She had Just Wonderful behind her that day, who is half her price and was
impressive winning the Rockfel, and I don’t see any reason why she shouldn’t confirm the form.
That’s pretty decent form in my book and I think she’s a bit of an e/w steal at that price.
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