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I think Bolger’s record in the 1000 Guineas speaks volumes. Since Finsceal Beo, 5 runners all placed in the top 6 – the 3 shortest-priced runners (12s, 20s, 25s) all placed. And given the form she showed in the Moyglare, ahead of the 2/1f Found, Lucida will do me nicely at 12/1, but it’s as usual a very open race. The Irish fillies looked much better at 2 (bar Cursory Glance), but of the top 10 in the betting 6 are British-trained and only 2 of them have raced more than 3 times, so there are a lot of unexposed runners.
As far as I can tell Bin Suroor’s not had a Nell Gwyn runner (or Fred Darling) this century so I’m taking that as a tip in itself and the fact Beautiful Romance went off favourite (opened 4s on-course and smashed into 10/3) suggests she’s highly-rated. Dropped down to 7f from a 8f debut suggests a bit of speed too. She was beaten by 2 very experienced fillies (7 & 6 previous runs respectively) and just got trapped between them about 1 1/2f out so had to check her run. Doyle doesn’t give her a hard time in the final furlong and I don’t think she loses any ground to the winner. He doesn’t even go for the whip at any point. Big prep job.
Bin Suroor initially said she was going to step-up to 10f+ (“Beautiful Romance ran well and I am pleased that she has finished third in a Group Three. We will keep the options open but she will step up in distance. She will stay a mile and a quarter or a mile and a half in the future.”) but now says she runs in the Guineas (“She has come out of the race very well, and we look forward to her taking her place in the 1,000 Guineas field. She is a top class filly. I regard her highly.”) (Credit goes to Jamesp on the Betfair forum for finding those quotes)
20s for her seems a bit generous
Ervedya not in the decs for 1000gns(along with sympathy and sunset glow) obviously there are others but they are the three on’ missing list’ that caught my eye
Will be the shittest line-up in years if Found doesn’t make the field. It’s already uninspiring enough as it is.
Be more optimistic man, I think this is a good race. Lucida, Beautiful Romance, maybe Malabar. Faydahhil or whatever is still unexposed too. AOB rates Quality highly.
Be more optimistic man, I think this is a good race. Lucida, Beautiful Romance, maybe Malabar. Faydahhil or whatever is still unexposed too. AOB rates Quality highly.
Can’t get excited about any of those you mentioned if I’m honest. One of them may well end up bagging the race, but I still don’t think any of these will turn out to be truly top class fillies. My only hope lies in the possibility that the Fred Darling might potentially have been a very decent renewal. It may turn out that Tiggy Wiggy’s third place was a very good run in the end and that the first two are quality fillies. Might be just wishful thinking but Redstart and Jellicle Ball are probably the two I might look to if Found doesn’t line up. Looking forward to see how Queen Nefertiti gets on as well today. Really like her debut early last year but hasn’t been seen since. Might be more of an Oaks filly though.
Lesson to myself – don’t bother with this race. In recent years I have been on fillies who have either died, been pulled out due to injury or turned up half-baked and run no race at all.
This year we have had the well supported second favourite pulled within the last couple of weeks and now a last minute doubt about the clear favourite. Bookmakers must be falling over themselves.
A quick trawl through the history books will show a string of top class fillies winning this race, many of whom had shown plenty as 2yo’s. I don’t know why but that just doesn’t seem to happen these days. The race should carry some sort of punters health warning.
Can’t get excited about any of those you mentioned if I’m honest. One of them may well end up bagging the race, but I still don’t think any of these will turn out to be truly top class fillies. My only hope lies in the possibility that the Fred Darling might potentially have been a very decent renewal. It may turn out that Tiggy Wiggy’s third place was a very good run in the end and that the first two are quality fillies. Might be just wishful thinking but Redstart and Jellicle Ball are probably the two I might look to if Found doesn’t line up. Looking forward to see how Queen Nefertiti gets on as well today. Really like her debut early last year but hasn’t been seen since. Might be more of an Oaks filly though.
I think Jellicle Ball is easily the best value left in the race. I think she showed enough speed over 7F on lightning fast conditions to be competitive at Newmarket. Track records were falling at Newbury and, as an Oaks entered filly, it was encouraging that she could run that well in what wasn’t much of a stamina test. An extra furlong will help her and there may well be some juice in the ground on the day.
I am surprised more bookmakers haven’t pushed Found out a bit more with the news that her participation may be in doubt. There is some 7/2 about but some have her on 9/4, which makes zero appeal.
If the ground comes up soft on the day Together Forever has to be a strong contender as a filly who improved late on last year and put up by far her best performance in the mud when winning the Fillies Mile. She is getting quite short now though. Godolphin’s Beautiful Romance is also proven on soft and should appreciate the step back to a mile after what looked a strange choice dropping to 7f. Jellicle Ball has won on the all weather and would be a bit of a guessing game on very soft ground but I feel her promising effort at the shorter trip and her scope for improvement stepped up to a mile are being overlooked sitting at 20/1 in an open affair.
Lucida has obvious claims and I feel that wherever she finishes, Barry Hills’ Fadhayyil should be right with her. I took 20/1 on the unexposed filly and feel that she is a sound enough candidate to make the frame. I have four still in the mix from the five bets I picked. Words at 25/1 is out, Tiggy Wiggy at 20/1 may as well be out but I have hopes on Jellicle Ball at 40/1 and an interesting outsider in Irish Rookie at 66/1, who went for a racecourse gallop instead of one of the trials. She’s a course and distance winner with cut in the ground and trainer Martyn Meade thinks a lot of her and she could just surprise a few if it comes up really soft, as the trainer thinks she’ll get quite a bit further than a mile.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yeah it’s really a nightmare backing 3yo Fillies’ Classics ante-post. I’ve had so many near ante-post misses it’s crazy. They improve so quickly all of a sudden, or turn up and run a stone or sometimes more better than their last start as a 2yo.
It doesn’t makes sense to me the comments in the Racing Post from the O’Brien camp “We’ll decide about Together Forever when we’re deciding about Found, while the plan is for Qualify to run if the ground is no slower than good,” If Found is under the weather and is pulled then they will surely need Together Forever at Newmarket as the weather forecast I hear is rain for this coming week so there is likely to be cut which will not suit Qualify. Together Forever is a proven course and distance winner and has the stamina to last as well as class in her breeding. Likewise for Highland Reel I hope he gets a run but they obviously like Glen Eagles work.
I also note that Queen Nefertiti is currently with W/Hill at 50’s whilst everyone else is sitting mostly 25’s on breeding alone she has a great chance and surely is worth a nibble at.
Yeah sounds to me like Together Forever is rubbish, and based on him maybe sending Highland Reel to the French Guineas, so is he.
It doesn’t makes sense to me the comments in the Racing Post from the O’Brien camp “We’ll decide about Together Forever when we’re deciding about Found, while the plan is for Qualify to run if the ground is no slower than good,” If Found is under the weather and is pulled then they will surely need Together Forever at Newmarket as the weather forecast I hear is rain for this coming week so there is likely to be cut which will not suit Qualify. Together Forever is a proven course and distance winner and has the stamina to last as well as class in her breeding. Likewise for Highland Reel I hope he gets a run but they obviously like Glen Eagles work.
I find the lack of decision by Aiden O’ Brien and other trainers to be very frustrating.
The first comment made is that Found worked well and Joseph was happy with her. Surely that should be it then? The horse has the form, she is the favourite and has just worked well, where is the need to wait a few more days to make your mind up?
You would hope Together Forever would be good enough to take her chance regardless of whether Found runs or not. She showed much improved form later in the season last year and clearly would be capable if it turned soft on the day. Waiting to see what happens with the favourite would suggest to me that they are only likely to send Together Forever if they pull Found out of the race.
It seems a bit sad to me that a horse sitting at 8/1 for the 1000 Guineas is having her participation tied to another horse’s fate.
With the colts the only sure thing is that Gleneagles is going to be there in the 2000 Guineas. Highland Reel is the next most likely to turn up but it isn’t certain. It is a similar situation to the 1000 Guineas with Highland Reel around about the same odds for the race as the second string from the stable.
There has been some money for Ol’ Man River this week but I will be surprised if he runs because his position seems exactly as it was more than a month ago, as a horse in limbo, somewhere quite far from “could run” and much closer to “hasn’t been ruled out yet” For me the horse is either fast enough for the 2000 Guineas or he is more of a Derby horse. You would think they should know which it is by now.
Dermot Weld has helpfully told us that:-
“We haven’t made any decision about Zarwaq and whether he’ll run at Newmarket.”
Again, the horse is surely either showing enough speed to be a Guineas horse or he isn’t. Waiting another fortnight isn’t going to make the horse get any faster.
Here’s a thought on how trainers can find out if their horse is fast enough to win a Guineas:-
Run it in the bloody race and find out that way.
I doubt it will ever catch on though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Raydara is going to miss the 1000 Guineas as she is not ready to run in the British version. They will be hoping to have her ready for the Irish version three weeks later.
She had been between 16/1 and 20/1 for the race, so her absence won’t affect the market much.
I wonder what size of field we are likely to see here?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think the 1,000 is a very good stats race; I missed last years winner who scored really highly stats wise. Is a lot of rain forecast then? I’m finding the weather very confusing these days [brilliant sunshine here today].
They are dropping like flies!!!
God knows how many are going to actually run!!
I am glad I haven’t had a bet yet.
I think the advice to anyone would be wait and see what turns up on the day!!
I am bemused at trainers not making decisions!! ITS YOUR JOB!!!!Sorry for the rant but as far as ante post betting is concerned I won’t be having any more than a few days before a race any more. Its shocking!!
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