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Tamarinbleu may just be a better horse at Ascot than at any other track. His record here is 3 wins from 4 runs. The only time he didn’t win was when he was pulled up after a bad blunder.
He was allowed an easy lead and the race was run to suit him. It was a very good performance but he is not a horse I would want on my side at the festival.I wouldn’t dispute too much of the above, other than to point out gently that Folkestone could never be described as a stiff track, even in don’t-drop-your-car-keys-in-it heavy like today.
gc
You are of course right, I dont know what came over me!!
SO BASICALLY DONT BELEIVE EVERYTHINK YOU READ IN THE PAPERS LOL…… X
I dont believe anything I read in the Racing Post.
(I dont actually buy it anymore, and only use the online version for form and dont bother with any of the stories).
The Racing Posts main form of income is surely from bookmakers adverts, so why anyone would trust anything that is in the paper is beyond me. Im sure they make mistakes on purpose to put punters away and keep the bookmakers happy.
The trip was absolutely fine on testing ground at a stiff track today. He may well improve for a step up but he wasnt beaten due to the trip.
The likliehood is he needed his first race for 468 days, obviously I could see how long he had been off track for before hand and that didnt put me off the bet as he had won fresh before and King can get them ready at the first time of asking but he may well have needed the race.
But whichever way you look at it, take the favourite out of the race and Quizzene absolutely bolted up, he absolutely destroyed 13 rivals, so it wasnt a bad performance by any means.
His jumping wasnt brilliant, he tended to get a bit high at the hurdles and may well turn into a really good chaser in time as he is a big animal.
All 4yo’s will get a lot of weight from the elders in these races (its the 4yo weight allowance), a good percentage of them will be beaten. A lot of young horses run below form when taking on the elders for the first time, it simply spins some of them out and they get beat.
I dont see how anyone is knocking the bet though, it was a cracking e/w bet at a brilliant price. I thought that before the race and I still think it now. Im 100% happy with the bet.
Only got 2nd but easily beat the rest of the field. Happy with my e/w at 4/1 on that bet even though it only got 2nd. Returned 90% of total stake and I would never side with the 4yos in these races so am pleased even though I lost a small ammount.
Personally I never back horses first time over hurdles and would tend to favour lower class Flat horses with hurdle form in the book (a la Kaachit) over supposed classier Flat recruits.
I don’t believe a horse will make a hurdler until I’ve seen it jump.
But good luck anyway
I never back a hurdler on his debut who has come from a bumper race although I have no problem whatsoever with backing a hurdler who has switched from the flat, especially if he is trained by someone like Alan King.
Bet of the season at 4/1.
Souriceau is a 4yo taking on his elders (just 3 weeks ago he was a 3yo), I would be shocked if he could win this race taking on his elders for the first time. I may even place lay him for a minimal risk.
King Jack won his bumper over 18f on heavy, he is going to need at least 2 1/2 m + to show his form. Add in the fact that R T Phillips (not my fav trainer at the best of times) is 0-6 with his hurdlers at Folkestone over the last 5 years. Should be seriously outpaced at the business end.
I really cant make a case for anything else in the race. For me this is the best bet of 2008 so far, anyone will struggle to talk me out of it.
Quizenne has won fresh before so the break is not a worry, Alan King can get them ready 1st time as well.
Ability to jump a hurdle has to be taken on trust but I happen to trust the King stable to have the horse very well schooled for today.
He has won on heavy ground.Easiest winner of the day imo and 4/1 is a gift. I have filled up on this one, super confident.
Excellent days action at Folkestone and as well as the aforementoined horses I am looking forward to the hurdles debut of Quizzene.
Im looking forward to seeing Quizzene as well. I think it is the bet of the day.
As far as I am concerned laying and backing are identical. If you know what is going to win the race then you must know what is going to lose the race and vice versa.
My opinion is that you shouln’t give up the day job Zoso!
Hard luck mate, punting in this kind of low-grade dross will drive you to drink, believe meSo what should I do if my day job is punting horses?
I dont subscribe to the belief that low grade racing is any tougher than high grade racing, quite the opposite in fact. I think that when you get the quality races, everyone will be looking at these races and studying, the journos will be writing about them and any value that existed will often disappear as people will find the correct angles on the races.
Whereas with lower grade racing, it’s unlikely that any RP journos would write on the race, many punters wont even bother studying these races which means that there is often quite a bit of value to play in these types of races if you put the time in. A horse is a horse in my view whether it’s running in class 7 races or group 1, the logic remains the same.(Yes I know my lay won, but that is going to happen to anybody and everybody who lays horses, it’s just a shame that my first post was a losing bet)
Surprisingly he ran his best ever race today, shooting 3 lengths clear and trading as short as 1.61 on Betfair in running before Fulford took care of him. Was a good run in 2nd place though and Im sure the connections will have been pleasantly surprised with the improved form it showed today and may even have had a cheeky e/w bet on him at the early prices.
Lesson two: don’t believe everything you read (or hear), least of all from people connected to the horses involved, and develop techniques for making your own informed decisions.
I really should be charging you for this advice, but I’ll give it gratis, seeing as I like you so much.
Pru that is really poor advice. Surely it should be -don’t listen to ANYTHING you read or hear least of all from people connected to the horse involved.
