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3:20 Wolverhampton – LAY

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  • January 20, 2008 at 14:20 #6337
    Avatar photoZoso
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    I have layed Mujamead in the 3:20 race at 2.74 on Betfair.

    # The horse has shown improved form for the fitting of cheekpieces over hurdles, winning 2 of his last 3 races in that sphere since they went on.
    # He ran his best ever flat race last time over 2mile at Kempton with the cheekpieces on.
    # Significantly (I think) the cheekpieces are left off today, and I expect him to run below form due to this.
    # He is dropping down in trip to 1m6f today, I dont believe the drop down in trip will be to his advantage.
    # Was ridden by a 5 l/b claimer last time (super Kirsty), has a 3 l/b claimer riding today so is effectively 2 l/b worse off.
    # Kirsty Milczarek has a 27% strike rate when riding for A W Carol, she is at the track today, but the ride has been given to someone who has never ridden for Carol before.
    # Horse is entered in a hurdle on Tuesday and that sphere is surely where his future lies.

    I think Qaasi has a great chance today and he is in form, Slavonic Lake is also a serious rival who should beat Mujamead by my reckoning. Jenny Soba and Tewkesbury are two outsiders who could go well.

    I guess what I’m trying to say is that I will be laying Mujamead and think it is seriously underpriced today. Does anyone have any opinions on my bet/the race. :?:

    January 20, 2008 at 15:26 #136576
    carvillshill
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    My opinion is that you shouln’t give up the day job Zoso!
    Hard luck mate, punting in this kind of low-grade dross will drive you to drink, believe me :D

    January 20, 2008 at 15:35 #136578
    Avatar photoZoso
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    My opinion is that you shouln’t give up the day job Zoso!
    Hard luck mate, punting in this kind of low-grade dross will drive you to drink, believe me :D

    So what should I do if my day job is punting horses? :oops: :shock:

    I dont subscribe to the belief that low grade racing is any tougher than high grade racing, quite the opposite in fact. I think that when you get the quality races, everyone will be looking at these races and studying, the journos will be writing about them and any value that existed will often disappear as people will find the correct angles on the races.
    Whereas with lower grade racing, it’s unlikely that any RP journos would write on the race, many punters wont even bother studying these races which means that there is often quite a bit of value to play in these types of races if you put the time in. A horse is a horse in my view whether it’s running in class 7 races or group 1, the logic remains the same.

    (Yes I know my lay won, but that is going to happen to anybody and everybody who lays horses, it’s just a shame that my first post was a losing bet) :cry:

    January 28, 2008 at 19:51 #138463
    Avatar photoTuffers
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    Zoso

    I think the problem with low grade racing is that the runners tend to be more inconsistent than better class horses making the form more unreliable.

    January 29, 2008 at 02:11 #138562
    snowman
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    Keep your head up Zoso.

    As you rightly said wether you are a layer or a backer you will have losing bets. At least you looked carefully at the race and came to a conclusion using your findings and not just a ‘gut instinct’.

    Have another go mate!

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