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Brighton v Rotherham 7/10 Think seagulls should be a lot shorter than this
Boro v Brentford 8/13 – Boro seem to have got going and will win more games than they lose/draw at homeDouble pays 7/4 BetVic
Will look at some singles later
Nice darts !!
Agreed. I think Arsenal will probably win on Sat. I think they have had their ‘shock’ home defeat for a while…
I hope you’re not referring to West Ham heh heh heh
The Hammers were the last team to beat Arsenal in the league at Highbury and the first team to beat them in the league at the Emirates
No shock factor for this “Happy Hammer”
Following on from some comments in the “Big Races – Discussion” section for the Sceptre Stakes, I am sharing some thoughts and ideas that I have had on trying to find a way of getting the trends analysis that i do to make a little bit of money. For those of you that did not see the comments in the other post, here is what was said…
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
In races where there are maybe 3-5 “trends selections” and a large field size, put 1 point win bets on some or all of the “trenders” and a 3 point place on all of them. That means today would have resulted in the following…
Excilly = no return
Fadhayyil = no return
Mistrusting = no return
Realtra – win returned £33.60 and £3 place returned £25.50 (£3 x £8.50) = £59.10
Terror – place returned £29.10 (£3 x £9.70)Layout = £20.00
Return = £88.20
Profit = £68.20These figures were calculated using Tote returns, maybe better returns could be obtained using BetFair or a bookie giving place odds ?
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =Tomorrow see the Portland handicap and an opportunity to trial this on here to see if there is anything in this theory or not. I will also cover some of the other bigger races (i.e. handicaps) that I analyse for trends between now and the end of thi season.
At the moment in the Portland, 22 declared runners and that means 4 places, but if it is possible to get a bookie to allow place bets on first 5 then so much the better. I will just stick to the normal Tote rules and figures for this exercise.
The list of “trenders” for the Portland is…
Suzi´s Connoisseur
Highland Acclaim
Kimberella
Lucky Beggar
Fast Track
Secretinthepark
Distant PastSo that means 7 x £1 win bets and 7 x £3 places bets = £28 being laid out if the above 7 run. I am using small stakes on a 1:3 basis purely for illustration and these numbers can be changed to whatever anyone following this is comfortable with.
Good luck
RichieSecretinthepark was a non-runner and none of the others made the frame (of 4 places).
£24 laid out with no return.
Hopefully I can have another stab at this with just a handful of “trenders” in big fields next week with the Ayr Gold Cup and the Fred Darling (Dubai Duty Free) handicaps next weekend.
Which of those ‘trenders’ do you think has the best chance of winning Richie? I like at least 3 of them.
I have to admit that 7 is possibly too many to follow using this strategy that I mention. Like most things, patience is the key and perhaps 5 should be the limit in order to make this manageable, but for the sake of illustration purposes only I have included these 7. Just realised Secretinthepark doesn’t run so now down to 6.
Personally I tend to prefer previous Distance winners in my bets. but that would only elminate Distant Past here. Another thing I tend to look at, is the previous race grade and position in that grade…
Suzi´s Connoisseur – Class 2 Hcp 2nd (on GS)
Highland Acclaim – Class 2 Hcp Disqualified when 8th (on GS)
Kimberella – Class 2 Hcp 5th (on Good)
Lucky Beggar – Class 2 Hcp 8th (on GS)
Fast Track – Class 2 Hcp 10th (on GS)
Distant Past – Class 2 Hcp 6th (on GS)In a bid to pick say, just 3, I would go with…
Kimberella: as he finished 5th on the same going over the same 5½f distance last time out and is also a Course winner. Plus has a decent claimer on board today.
Suzi´s Connoisseur: was very unlucky last week and well clear of 3rd. Up 3lbs for that but has the in-form jock Andrea Atzeni on board. This might be a bit short for him distance wise, but if the plan is to push harder over shorter then he should be fit enough to be there or thereabouts.
Distant Past – also a Course winner but my pick because this is an interesting jockey booking. Keagan may have only won 6 of his 108 rides so far, but has been placed in the first 4 places 43 times and payout is on 4 places today.Good luck !!
Following on from some comments in the “Big Races – Discussion” section for the Sceptre Stakes, I am sharing some thoughts and ideas that I have had on trying to find a way of getting the trends analysis that i do to make a little bit of money. For those of you that did not see the comments in the other post, here is what was said…
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
In races where there are maybe 3-5 “trends selections” and a large field size, put 1 point win bets on some or all of the “trenders” and a 3 point place on all of them. That means today would have resulted in the following…
Excilly = no return
Fadhayyil = no return
Mistrusting = no return
Realtra – win returned £33.60 and £3 place returned £25.50 (£3 x £8.50) = £59.10
Terror – place returned £29.10 (£3 x £9.70)Layout = £20.00
Return = £88.20
Profit = £68.20These figures were calculated using Tote returns, maybe better returns could be obtained using BetFair or a bookie giving place odds ?
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =Tomorrow see the Portland handicap and an opportunity to trial this on here to see if there is anything in this theory or not. I will also cover some of the other bigger races (i.e. handicaps) that I analyse for trends between now and the end of thi season.
At the moment in the Portland, 22 declared runners and that means 4 places, but if it is possible to get a bookie to allow place bets on first 5 then so much the better. I will just stick to the normal Tote rules and figures for this exercise.
The list of “trenders” for the Portland is…
Suzi´s Connoisseur
Highland Acclaim
Kimberella
Lucky Beggar
Fast Track
Secretinthepark
Distant PastSo that means 7 x £1 win bets and 7 x £3 places bets = £28 being laid out if the above 7 run. I am using small stakes on a 1:3 basis purely for illustration and these numbers can be changed to whatever anyone following this is comfortable with.
Good luck
Richie<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Chivers1987 wrote:</div>
She did still place at least, most firms were offering the first 4 home.Well done Chivers, each way at 4/1 gets your money back for another day, sadly Paddy Power bagged all mine today.
Richie’s bet worked out well today, would be interesting to see how that worked long term and in the big races such as The Lincoln, Cambridgeshire and Cesarwitch…
It has been a bit hit and miss so far but there have been one or two days like the Sceptre Stakes with nice returns.
I will resurrect the thread I have called “Following Trends – Is it worth it >” in the Trends and Research > Trends, Research and Notebooks section. I can put the selections in for the races mentioned and also kick things off with the Portland handicap tomorrow.
Good luck with your bets !!
Unfortunately I only backed Excilly and none of the other 4.
I have considered dutching, but am monitoring another theory…
In races where there are maybe 3-5 “trends selections” and a large field size, put 1 point win bets on some or all of the “trenders” and a 3 point place on all of them. That means today would have resulted in the following…
Excilly = no return
Fadhayyil = no return
Mistrusting = no return
Realtra – win returned £33.60 and £3 place returned £25.50 (£3 x £8.50) = £59.10
Terror – place returned £29.10 (£3 x £9.70)Layout = £20.00
Return = £88.20
Profit = £68.20These figures were calculated using Tote returns, maybe better returns could be obtained using BetFair or a bookie giving place odds ?
Good luck
RichieAll of the last 9 winners were 3yo’s
All of the last 10 winners had an OR in the range 99-113Five horses follow both of those trends…
Excilly
Fadhayyil
Mistrusting
Realtra
TerrorFavourites don’t fare too well in this, just 3 have won in the last 10.
Excilly is surely too high at 33’s and I reckon worth a nibble e/w. She seems to be a consistent sort with 2 wins on the going, on the other 2 times she was 2nd. 2 wins over the distance with the other 2 runs being 2nd and 3rd. I think her last run can be ignored as it was on Heavy over in Deauville (4th in a Group 3).
She might not be goood enough to beat Fadhayyil but at 33s with ¼ odds, a place will pay more.
Good luck with your bets !!
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Today’s Voltigeur 1-2 look the value for the Leger now.
Storm The Stars at 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
Bondi Beach 10/1 (Boylesports)
…Of the last 18 winners of the St.Leger, 9 had run in the Great Voltigeur and all had finsihed in the first 4 places. I think it is a good pointer for this race, along with the Gordon stakes with quite a few previous winners of the Leger having run in that race too. Haven’t done the stats for the Gordon Stakes runners, but as the footy is a slow game (ENG v SWI, I might need something to keep my awake.
6 of the last 18 St.Leger winners had run in the Gordon Stakes, all had finished in the first 3 places and 4 won the race and Rooney just broke the record – baldie takes over from baldie !!
Today’s Voltigeur 1-2 look the value for the Leger now.
Storm The Stars at 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
Bondi Beach 10/1 (Boylesports)
…Of the last 18 winners of the St.Leger, 9 had run in the Great Voltigeur and all had finsihed in the first 4 places. I think it is a good pointer for this race, along with the Gordon stakes with quite a few previous winners of the Leger having run in that race too. Haven’t done the stats for the Gordon Stakes runners, but as the footy is a slow game (ENG v SWI, I might need something to keep my awake.
Plumbing the depths in search of inspiration…
W/E 5th/6th September 2015
£4 treble and 3 x £2 doubles on;
Walsall 13/10 Lost
Wycombe 4/5 Won00
Leyton Orient 11/10 LostGood luck with your bets !!
P&L for the weekend…
Treble: no return
Doubles: no returnP&L for the season…
Treble: £20.00 loss
Doubles: £24.00 loss
Overall: £44.00 lossAs many of you are probably already aware, I follow trends and when I look at Group 1 races over 6f that I have analysed over the last 2 seasons, I see the following – the winners of a race have followed 20 of the 21 trends in those races. That means only once did a trend not get followed.
Sometimes there is more than one trend in a race and today I have noticed 3;
> 19 of the last 21 winners were aged 3yo-5yo
> 20 of the last 21 winners had finished in the first 6 places last time out
> 11 of the last 13 winners had already won a race with an Official Rating of 104 or higherIn the race today only 5 of the 17 declared horses follow all 3 of the above trends…
Eastern Impact
Adaay
Mattmu
Strath Burn
WaadyI got on Mattmu e/w at 10s last night.
Good luck wth your bets !!
Plumbing the depths in search of inspiration…
W/E 5th/6th September 2015
£4 treble and 3 x £2 doubles on;
Walsall 13/10
Wycombe 4/5
Leyton Orient 11/10Good luck with your bets !!
W/E 29th/30th August 2015
£4 treble and 3 x £2 doubles on;
Chelsea 2/5 Lost
Manchester City 1/5 Won
Coventry 11/10 LostGood luck with your bets !!
P&L for the weekend…
Treble: no return
Doubles: no returnP&L for the season…
Treble: £16.00 loss
Doubles: £18.00 loss
Overall: £34.00 lossGroan……….
I think the camera man must have had a bet on Gatlin as he took Bolt right off his feet.
It was a good job Bolt had taken off his spikes otherwie that would have been really nasty. If you look at the incident again, the cameraman’s segway crashes into the back of Bolt’s legs pushing his feet forward, i.e. taking them from under him. Had he been wearing spikes, the feet would have stayed put as the spikes would have been dug into the track and the segway would have caused a lot of damage.
Could have been very nasty and even career ending.
