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I hold my hands up and admit I got Storm The Stars wrong. I had him down as a one paced horse that would always run well but not win races. He proved me wrong at York that race was competitive enough for him to lose but he didn’t.
Looking through his pedigree Storm The Stars has stamina on both sides. If there’s one horse that looks like he should improve for the trip it is Storm The Stars yet he’s second favourite here despite having the best level of form in the race. I don’t get it, he was second in the Irish Derby, third in the Epsom one and won on a sharp track last time over a trip that might have been as short as he wants it. The horse he beat that day has already beaten the new favourite albeit narrow margin.
I’m with Steve here, Storm The Stars should be around 9/4, 5/2. 4/1 is a big price especially with stable vibes positive too. I can’t see why he isn’t the jolly.
It’s practically impossible to know what the Irish St Leger Trial was worth. Order Of St George beat Sea Moon (who’s good) 7 1/2 lengths – but runner-up was having his first run for 9 months/return to Europe. Third, unlucky Gold Cup runner-up, but he was never put in the race and had he been right would surely have gone for better races at York or in France; not a Group 3. Betting beforehand told Kingfisher wasn’t 100%. That leaves Innis Meain and Good Tradition. Former also returning after a long spell off and latter yet to try a listed let alone a Group 3. Even allowing for the soft ground it was run at a slow pace too – so no clues on winner’s merit there. Order Of St George impressive and won with plenty in hand, but was 4/6 to do so. Could be really good, but could also be easy to over-rate the performance.
Punters see ballydoyle’s St Leger record and presume they’ve got the winner. Bondi Beach beaten by Storm The Stars and Fields Of Athenry “only 5th” in the Ebor. Therefore the only one they can theoretically think of as being “the one” who’s better than the rest of the Leger field is the unexposed Order Of St George. Seems a big judgement to me. Odds are that of a horse who is a good horse, not of one who might be a good horse. I’d be more inclined to judge him on the Curragh Cup form, short head second to stable companion Bondi Beach. So for me – on form there is not much at all between the first three in the betting. One positive for the now favourite is he had an easier trial than his main St Leger rivals.
I would just about make Storm The Stars favourite now, because he’s yet to run over the increased trip which imo (on both breeding and run style) will suit extremely well. 4/1 is fair. Bondi Beach himself could improve back at 14f, I’d have the Curragh Cup Coolmore duo just behind the Haggas horse.
Mr Singh has always been thought by the stable as their St Leger horse. Gosden has the best St Leger record of British trainers and plenty of staying bred animals to choose from. Might improve, but is unproven if coming up on the soft side and form of Bahrain Trophy and King Ed hasn’t worked out. Of first four in the market he’s imo the worst priced.
The one on “form” who seems to be a good value price is the Ebor 5th Fields Of Athenry. I’ve already made a slight profit on him by backing and then laying prior to York; but the performance there is a good one. Ebor has better horses in it than punters generally give it credit for. And taking weight for age and rider’s claim in to account comes out by far the best horse in the race. Effectively giving weight to all those who beat him despite being a 3 year old racing against older horses at a staying trip. Added to that, the race did not pan out/given a poor ride. Slower away (from widest draw) than ideal for a front runner. Took his time in the first couple of furlongs but swooped through despite pace being strong and went for home too soon in straight. Doing by far the best of the prominent runners, needs marking up because of the race’s pace bias. However, is O’Brien’s third string; wouldn’t be certain to make the line up and had a hard race. Will Donnacha ride again? If so effectively a 5 (or more) pound penalty in a Classic, unable to claim. So will wait until nearer the off.
Value Is EverythingMr Singh is out of the St Leger after picking up an infection. Hard lines to Darren, who was on ante-post. It’s particularly frustrating when it’s so close to the race. His group 2 win at Ascot took plenty of knocks, with all seven who ran next time finishing unplaced. There were a few question marks about him but he was certainly one of the better contenders.
The race seems effectively a match between Storm The Stars and the O’Brien stable. I feel only Bondi Beach or Order Of St George can stop the Derby third from earning a well deserved moment of glory after a season where he has ran so well so many times.
Not just because he is my ante-post pick but because I would rather see an avoidance of the O’Brien masses dominating this race, I would love to see Storm The Stars win this one. Knowing my ante-post luck this year, Haggas’s colt will probably wilt on the day at a fifth of the advised odds
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This looks likely to turn into a small field Ledger, with only a very few of those having a reasonable chance. There is a lot being made of Storm The Stars chances, and good horse that he is, I think what he has achieved is about right for his ability. Three wins out of ten doesn’t scream classic winner to me. I accept that he has run in the top races, but the Derby first two looked top notch, the rest were good horses, but no better. His third in the Derby was a good run, beating the the best of the rest, but nothing he beat that day bolster his chances for this. Equally in the Irish version, he was trounced (IMO) by the only class act in the field, again he beat the rest, but they were a very average looking bunch for an Irish Derby.
Addmittedly, this isn’t a very high class looking Ledger either, but I don’t fancy taking a chance on a 5/2 fav, in the shape of Order Of St George, that simply hasn’t franked the form. Ok, he won his last two races with his head in his chest, but in a 4 and a 5 runner field, at odds on, and against relatively ordinary opposition, that had to be expected. I think the market has over reacted, and I think he will drift.
If I’m going to have a bet at all, the most solid choice has to be Bondi Beach. He surely has to be open to more improvement than the two above mentioned, having had only four runs (against 8 and 10). He won his maiden very cheekily, and not extended. On his second outing in the king George V Cup at Leopardstown I think he was unlucky, finding trouble in running, but finishing well for 2nd (DHT). At The Curragh he beat Order Of St George, albeit by a sht hd, but I can’t think why that should be reversed. This was Bondi Beach’s 3rd run and Order Of St George’s 6th. Add to that, that Ryan Moore was on the latter and Mr O’Brien (nice chap and all that) was on Bondi, then why would I expect a turnaround?
His last race he was beaten by Storm The Stars, but I’ve watched it several times and (IMO) without Pat Cosgrove riding STS like a supermarket trolley with a wonky wheel in the last furlong, and bumping Bondi Beach to boot, I think the result may well have been different. I might get flak for that judgement, but it’s what I think. I’d also add that it was STS’s 10th race as opposed to Bondi’s 4th.
If there is improvement in Bondi Beach, and it wouldn’t have to be much, I cant find a reason to think there is anything in the field to beat him. I think the 9/2 that is on offer is a decent bet, well done to anyone who has picked up the tastier odds before the field was whittled down.
Good luck guys.
Just eight runners in the St Leger now and the horse who opened the thread, Giovanni Canaletto, is out of it now.
I would agree with BigG that Bondi Beach at 9/2 is the best value left. Order Of St George at 2/1 makes no appeal to me.
I think it is a relatively weak renewal and there will be the inevitable question as to whether a true group 1 horse has landed this Classic in the aftermath. It was said recently that the St Leger’s Group 1 status is safely assured for now but it looks more and more like a race for Derby runners who weren’t quite good enough to succeed and a mile and a half.
I don’t think Storm The Stars is a real group 1 horse but he’s still the slight touch of class here in my opinion. Yes, he’s had a busy season but William Haggas has said several times that he’s a horse who does very little at home and thrives on his racing. They feel his latest start will have helped him and I felt he was beginning to get on top at the end of the Voltigeur. I think that the O’Brien factor is the only thing stopping the Derby third and Irish Derby runner up being shorter for this race. I would make Storm The Stars 6/4 with Bondi Beach 3/1 and Order Of St George 7/2 if I were compiling a book on the race.
I don’t fancy any of the others. Fields Of Athenry was probably too aggressively ridden in The Ebor and he had a lot on with his weight against older horses there. It still just doesn’t sit with me that he could win a Leger after being beaten in a handicap. Simple Verse has been mentioned and she took a 20 lb hike in the handicap after landing the Group 3 Lillie Langtry over 1m 6f at Goodwood. I can’t have her though because the form of that race has been stinking the place out and the stone and a half rise looks dubious to me in retrospect.
I have had a great season in terms of picking horses ante-post and watching them line up at much shorter odds on the day but a pretty much lousy season in terms of getting them to actually win. 16/1 Storm The Stars is the latest one to go under the microscope on Saturday and if he doesn’t win it’s probably me who is the Jonah again.
Good luck.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Order Of St George has appeared in a few lists as favourite for the Irish St Leger now. That begs the question for his participation at Doncaster and he’s slightly eased in the betting for the latter version. Fields Of Athenry has been supported, so it just raises the question as to whether he and Bondi Beach will be the two to travel over. Apparently Joseph is not certain to come over to ride any of the O’Brien colts in the Leger, hardly a confidence booster.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Today’s Voltigeur 1-2 look the value for the Leger now.
Storm The Stars at 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
Bondi Beach 10/1 (Boylesports)
…Of the last 18 winners of the St.Leger, 9 had run in the Great Voltigeur and all had finsihed in the first 4 places. I think it is a good pointer for this race, along with the Gordon stakes with quite a few previous winners of the Leger having run in that race too. Haven’t done the stats for the Gordon Stakes runners, but as the footy is a slow game (ENG v SWI, I might need something to keep my awake.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Today’s Voltigeur 1-2 look the value for the Leger now.
Storm The Stars at 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
Bondi Beach 10/1 (Boylesports)
…Of the last 18 winners of the St.Leger, 9 had run in the Great Voltigeur and all had finsihed in the first 4 places. I think it is a good pointer for this race, along with the Gordon stakes with quite a few previous winners of the Leger having run in that race too. Haven’t done the stats for the Gordon Stakes runners, but as the footy is a slow game (ENG v SWI, I might need something to keep my awake.
6 of the last 18 St.Leger winners had run in the Gordon Stakes, all had finished in the first 3 places and 4 won the race and Rooney just broke the record – baldie takes over from baldie !!
Am on Storm The Stars ante-post, but like to see a winner or two from Haggas before Saturday. Not that he’s in bad form, just was in outstanding nick York week.
Value Is EverythingOrder Of St George continues to be weak and is quoted “With a run” in some places now. He’s also appeared as “With a run” in the Irish St Leger and it’s hardly helpful for punters that these people can’t make their minds up. You sort of hope he wins neither race really.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Storm The Stars won the the Voltigeur in the manner of horse who loves a battle –
just the type for St Leger glory .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Order Of St George has been declared and seems to have stabilised in the betting at about 3/1. He’s still quoted in the Irish version though.
Rain is expected in Ireland and they are moving the Champion forward to try to avoid the possibility of churned up ground in the event that the rain gets into the surface. This has messed up peoples plans and is typical of the trend to bend over backwards to get the big names to run.
Storm The Stars is still my pick at a decent value 5/2.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Order Of St George continues to be weak and is quoted “With a run” in some places now. He’s also appeared as “With a run” in the Irish St Leger and it’s hardly helpful for punters that these people can’t make their minds up. You sort of hope he wins neither race really.
Don’t get this at all, surely it’s best practice to wait as long as you can to see what conditions may be like? Would be silly not to leave their options open imo.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Order Of St George continues to be weak and is quoted “With a run” in some places now. He’s also appeared as “With a run” in the Irish St Leger and it’s hardly helpful for punters that these people can’t make their minds up. You sort of hope he wins neither race really.Don’t get this at all, surely it’s best practice to wait as long as you can to see what conditions may be like? Would be silly not to leave their options open imo.
It’s surely pretty straight forward Tommy. The horse is 3yo and should be running in the St Leger at Doncaster. Why even consider the Irish Leger?
For punters who like to wait until the last minutes to place a bet it’s of no concern but how can punters put an ante-post bet on with any confidence when you don’t know who’s likely to be in it until the last possible moment before the race.
I can’t recall a season where so many trainers have been running scared of the going for their horses and so many markets have been in disarray leading up to the race.
Fair enough when it’s a race that you could take or leave running your horse in, but these are classics and group races and I think it was ridiculous that Golden Horn didn’t run in the King George with spurious claims about not damaging the horse and then letting him run in Juddmonte, only to blame the ground afterwards when he got beaten. What’s wrong with the old idea of letting your horse take his chance in the big races?
I feel it’s bad for interest in upcoming races when trainers are going to leave it to an hour before the race to finally commit their horse to the race. It kills the notion of having an ante-post wager when a trainer walks away quite happily from a Classic race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
They are going to consider the Irish St Leger because if running there he’d be favourite and gives Ballydoyle a good opportunity of winning both races. They have two other first rate chances of winning the English St Leger, where as although Kingfisher might run in Ireland won’t have an obvious chance. Order Of St George is also thought best with give in the ground, so if Ireland is good-soft and Britain good-firm why not go to The Curragh? Best (for them) to keep options open.
Trainers are going to do what they see as best for the horse/connections. Apart from the probability of a horse with a top-of-the-ground action being better on a sound surface rather than soft or good-soft… Something that seems to have been born out at York… Whether we like it or not, Gosden’s opinion that the added stamina test soft ground produces over a strongly run 1m4f might lead to too hard a race; ending his season/career – ruled him out of the King George. It’s Gosden’s opinion that counts, does not matter if anyone disagrees. At least they gave Golden Horn a chance of running at Ascot. Sea The Stars also went from Epsom to Sandown to York to Leopardstown, but (if I remember rightly) no intention of appearing at Ascot.
Ante-post betting counts for little, not much money is wagered and it is not all about the punter. For sure it would be nice to know for sure what’s turning up, but isn’t it best to give every horse every opportunity to run anyway? Connections ruled Gleneagles out of the Sussex too soon. Ground conditions in the end no worse than Good. Solow Vs Gleneagles would’ve been something to see.
Gleneagles and Golden Horn are both (in all probability) so much better on a sound surface. It is not that connections believe they’re just a little worse in softer conditions; they believe their horse is a lot worse. So imo can’t blame them for not running.
We’d all wish every good horse ran in every race they entered, but it is not going to happen – and for (mostly) good reason. In most years we don’t get the changeable ground conditions so early – which is probably the reason why it appears to be happening more this season.
All in my opinion of course.
Value Is EverythingOrder Of St George is out of the St Leger and running in the cuddies version in Ireland instead.
That leaves Storm The Stars and Bondi Beach as 7/4 joint favs in general.
As I said after the Voltigeur, those two horses seemed the value at 5/1 and 10/1. I’ve been with Storm The Stars for this since just before the Epsom Derby, when he was 16/1 and I thought he was still good value at 8/1 afterwards.
All that remains to happen now is for Fields Of Athenry, my ante-post Ebor pick, to come out and win this race to spoil the party. It has an inevitable feel to it
I’m not sure why they couldn’t have just committed Order Of St George to the Irish Leger, it sounds as if O’Brien feels he needs gutters to have been competitive at Doncaster. The Irish Leger is a poorer race in my opinion, rarely won by 3yo horses and it seems much more like a cup race for older horses than for 3yo Derby runners to try to gain consolation, not quite having the speed for 12f races.
It’s not a great St Leger and I have to disagree with the correspondent who yesterday described the race as “perfect” and urged people to keep their hands off it, via an article on the internet. Is this really all we should be expecting from a Classic?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I thought after the Voltiguer that Bondi Beach would get his revenge over an extra 2F but with the ground on the fast side of good and Storm The Stars likely to be able to set his own fractions in front (unless Fields of Athenry reverts back to his front running tactics of previous wins) I am now not as confident – hopefully Buick will be much more handy than he was at York (not sure why jockeys always seem to think it is necessary to drop a hold up horse right out at the back of the field).
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