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Good points RE: Betfair and Betdaq, yeats. You’ve got to expect some sneaky commission hikes or hidden charges on the way under their new ownership. It’ll be a shame if they head the way of Pokerstars under Amaya’s ownership. Some cash games are now -EV spots even for the most solid 4BB/100 winning players due to the scandalous recent rises in rake.
Still, when did you last hear someone praise a bookmaker, yeats? They could hand out free tenners or donate 100% of profits to the IJF and some forum chopper would find a way to criticise.
As Coral’s quarterly retail figures show, the £2k and £5k guarantees have been very well-received since their inception.
You can hardly say Dr. Rust is “in the pockets of the bookmakers”, especially in light of today’s news. He has gambled and will have burned several bridges with his ‘pay up or else’ tactics.
Yeats, you seem fixated on ‘beating the odds’. Surely if you don’t beat the SP, you’re doing something very wrong. Overnight and early morning prices and overrounds compare very favourably to SPs, so it’s hard NOT to get an advantageous price if you get on early enough. You’re likely to beat the SP if you back any random horse. If everyone who fit this profile was being restricted, there would be no punters at all – and before you jump in, publicly-released bookmaker racing product data shows that is far from the case.
You call me deluded, but I suspect racing forums and racing debates on Twitter are populated by myths driven by ego. It’s almost a badge of honour for many punters to say they have been restricted, because they associate that with being successful. If you don’t whine about difficulties in getting a bet laid, or the big bad bookies, then you come across as a novice. I believe more than half of those who bleat about restrictions are losing (yet innocent) punters who are just joining in with the bookie-bashing to seem like part of this shrewd, somehow wronged angry movement.
Excuse my ignorance, but what is “Bad EW Betting”?
‘Dirty bets’ are backing a horse E/W with a biggish odds on shot in the race, so as to have a ‘free’ win chance. Normally restricted to non handicaps. E/W doubles also profitable. Mind you, was very difficult getting these bets on 40 years ago when ‘Bookmakers’ did take a bet !!!!
That isn’t the right answer, Tim. I wouldn’t want to share it with the innocents who don’t indulge in the dark arts either.
Dr. Clare
A Ph.D in Cold-Eyed Smarm?
first you must learn how to smile as you kill
Haha, it was a mark of respect, inspired by Esfandiari.
e.g. One might refer to DC as Dr. Cormack for his work as TRF overlord.Number Nine in Stow is a lovely B&B that I always recommend. It’s only a small place though, so their rooms might be taken already.
Where are you plucking these figures from?
Yeats, I put it to you that your bias puts YOU in ‘cloud cuckoo land’. Your rather juvenile name-calling and attacks on Dr. Clare don’t do you any favours and, even if you were making a legitimate point, it would be lost in all the hatred. If you want to contribute something, be an adult about it.
Clare makes a fair point about the Oriental Fox con. It’s not only bookies who lose out in such scams – it’s straight punters who get stung when one of these plots comes along to foil their form study. You were rather quick (no doubt owing to your anti-Clare agenda) to accept Calvin’s ‘explanation’ of events, not taking into account the Calvin had publicly rubbished Oriental Fox’s chance pre-race. As you’ll see when searching Twitter for the horse’s name, even many esteemed judges couldn’t make any case for that horse on form.
I freely admit I do work for a bookmaker, but I’m still a punter like the rest of us and put my own interests first. The truth is that bookies want to lay straight bets from straight customers. They aren’t charities and never make any promises to lay bets when the service is being abused (arbing, bad EW, inside information etc), which are the causes of most restrictions. It’s sad if ‘fun’ punters are getting hurt. They can blame the abusers who have made bookmakers ultra-sensitive to the slightest hint of foul play. It’s a sad state of affairs, but the culprits lurk among us.
Coral’s £2k & £5k Guarantees shows that the company wants to lay meaty bets from customers who have opinions. No matter who you are, you can get on in a Coral shop.
If you don’t arb, don’t bet in bad EW races and don’t have betting patterns that suggest inside information, you’ve got a good chance of keeping your account alive, even if you’re a winner. I’m not saying that goes for everyone who has been restricted, but I imagine less than 1/4 of the bettors featured in that article could honestly claim to be straight punters.
The BBC shows zero knowledge of arbing in that article, which suggests the piece on 5 Live will be similarly naive. I don’t think it’s worth tuning in, personally.
Lydia Hislop recently sounded out a few traders on Twitter in attempts to make a fair and balanced debate on RUK, with both sides present to explain their grievances. I really hope she can get it off the ground.
With the uncertainty around Gleneagles and several other earlier in the week, it was hard to tell if there would be eight runners. I knew the Kodi Bear bet would get me in trouble since I had a massive chance of getting pure value on the 9/1, plus value on the e/w terms if the field cut up on the day. It’s not a ‘straight go’ though – it’s a bet that makes me feel dirty and more of an arber than a punter.
I couldn’t resist despite knowing my account would be doomswitched.
Kodi Bear’s win at Salisbury earlier in the season was something spectacular in my opinion. I know it was a much lower grade, but not many horses can switch from one side of the track to the other, then back AND win hard-held.
I wonder if Integral is a little jaded and just going through motions nowadays. I felt like Esoterique was there for the taking last time, but Integral didn’t threaten to go past. I’m expecting Solow to be sharp, but I wonder if there’s any chance of him being half a notch short of his best after a mid-season break. I agree RE: Gleneagles. Surely he’s had a setback or is doing something horrible at home. O’Brien’s comment that even 1mm of rain will stop him from running is ridiculous.
I love the Kodi Bear bet GT – got my account restricted soon after my scummy e/w at 9/1 with PP earlier in the week.
BTW Coral are also 1/4 the odds all C4 races.
I think your logic is a little fuzzy there, Joe. There are some mutually exclusive events in play here. Even if Don Cossack goes for the treble and Vautour, Coneygree and co don’t, that barely has any impact on what his price should be. Don Cossack will still have to beat top class fields, with various combinations of the best horses in the division showing up in each race.
40/1 is a daft price – but I’d say daft in the other direction.
I think Don Cossack’s race placement last year was quite revealing about how lowly he actually sits in the Gigginstown pecking order.
He rattled up a fair few wins, but got there by tackling quirky types (e.g. Champagne Fever & Cue Card), or over-the-top less rugged types at Aintree and Punchestown. When it came to Cheltenham, in what was quite an open-looking Gold Cup, very-good-but-not-quite-excellent Road To Riches got the call ahead of him. Surely that says it all. The order (at 100% peak form) would seem to be Don Poli (on testing tracks) > Road To Riches > Don Cossack.
You’ve also got to fear for a horse like Don Cossack when it comes to jumping in these races. He has had two tries around Cheltenham now – falling once and blundering his way around in the Ryanair Chase last year. With superb pressurisers like Silviniaco Conti, Coneygree and Kings Palace serving it up wherever he turns, this could be a chastening season. Don Cossack has been allowed to paper over the cracks so far, but this ‘murderer’s row’ of snarling front-runners will break him, I fear.
I think a different horse will win each of the three legs.
I’m interested too, TBB! I just don’t have anything to add on top of your great insights.
I’m always reading and appreciating though.
I was very impressed with Sego Success on comeback too, VTC. I’m glad you saw positives too. My own theory is that flat tracks suit him best. The Classic Chase and/or Scottish National could be the best bets, especially since Alan King has history with both races.
Saphir Du Rheu looks like the muggy bet in the race at the moment. I can’t imagine backing him when Coneygree and Vautour will be cranking up the pressure at the front and breaking down the poor jumpers. Saphir Du Rheu undeniably has below-average jumping technique. I suppose that didn’t stop Synchronised, but I think you’d show a chunky loss when backing horses (no matter how able) with that profile at Cheltenham.
Nobody (apart from VTC) has mentioned last year’s winner Coneygree yet. There are quite a few scenarios where I’d take him in a match bet versus Vautour, who needs to prove himself more fully on soft ground and when challenged for the lead.
I too like Beat That as a horse (actually spewed a few quid on him for the World Hurdle last year), but you’re brave if you’re:
a. Taking Henderson’s waffle as gospel
b. Trusting him to bring one back to formO’Faolain’s Boy certainly has some appeal. Rebecca Curtis posted a picture of him a few weeks ago looking rock hard fit already – he’s done some serious work this summer, you can tell!
I know he’s not quoted, but I’d also keep the faith with Sausalito Sunrise if he gets an entry. His Chepstow run was bizarre, but it would be a vote of confidence if he does get an entry.
It’s unlikely Thomas Crapper will wash up here, but connections might get tempted if he goes close or wins the Paddy Power. He storms up the hill so well at Cheltenham that I’ve always fancied him to get three miles and beyond.
McCain has been the one selecting the horses at the sales. Some of his comments about this split seem rather deluded (though very affable), with the trainer even saying he is ‘proud’ to have left the Rooneys with a great team of horses.
With the amount spent, it’s appalling that Kruzhlinin (peak rating circa 150) is the best horse the team have produced. In response to one of the comments above, a few of the purchases have been from France. Konig D’ax, for example, beat Douvan in France before finishing out with the washing for McCain.
Even when given the right ammunition, McCain lags behind the top trainers in keeping horses sound. Apart from the rugged Cloudy Lane, you’ve got to say his top performers had very short careers at the top. Overturn had a couple of great seasons before getting crocked, Peddlers Cross likewise and the less said about Cinders And Ashes the better!
There’s something a little braindead in McCain’s race planning and targeting too. Most of his string have won two or three small field events by a distance and enter handicaps completely exposed. I’m not encouraging skullduggery, but you’ve got to know that a trickly stream of 2-3k pots isn’t going to keep a big-spending owner happy.
