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The only time Kauto Star has been asked to concede weight to a good horse (Monet’s Garden ) he failed. To me, that tells its own story. The really great horses can give the weight away to other class horses.
The Aintree run only goes to show(me at any rate) how badly prepared the horse was. He must have had very little work. At Haydock he must have only been half fit to allow them so close. This week he was on the button. There is no knowing how much improvement there is in the horse, even for the rest of this season if he’s kept upto his work.
Trainers these days don’t seem to want to run the good ones as often-there was always lots of comment about the Best Mate campaigns and it seems that Clive Smith is the driving force behind Kauto’s campaign (Tingle Creek entries for instance).
Trainers can often be seen to "protect" them by sending them out short of peak fitness.It isn’t the horses fault its not being campaigned like Arkle and the full potential being explored – or the owners.
I think I will call this a day, there are enough selections to grasp the idea. I hope you feel its worth the investigating. Its been working for donkeys years. Its also very good for lays and indicates how some trainers are looking at the races. David Pipe and Dandy Nichols rarely let you down. Channon and Johnson you can lay theirs until the cows come home usually at very short odds also. Play only the big prices Over 12/1. You will soon see how the markets are framed.
How many favs won in last ten years?
Can anyone name all beaten favs ? I have found a few.
Rince RI
First Gold
War of Attrition
Florida Pearl
Native Upmanship
Best Mate
Beef or SalmonI hope Denman wins impressively tomorrow ……..I think this is actually a tougher race than the Hennessy turned out to be……….he may well be a 4/11 shot but if I hadn’t doubled him with Kauto I wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole…The fact is, on paper he has one horse to beat who is said to be a doubtful stayer……So why run The Listener? Why run a horse who doesn’t stay especially with the rep Denman and a few half decent animal in the race. If a horse doesn’t get the trip he could finish stone last………Wouldn’t they have had more chance round Kempton’s easy 3 miles of taking home a bit of prize money?
The Listener Won a novice hurdle over 3m1 at Warwick in heavy ground. He has won over tomorrows course and distance twice, winning this race and the Irish Hennessy both in Heavy ground. He also won the dipper on g/s. We have yet to see the best of The Listener on ground of the easy side of good over this trip.
The danger to Beef or Salmon and the Listener is Denman.
Beef or Salmon is a cracking price to go one better than last year the ground will put off a lot of punters but let us not forget that he ran best mate to 3 length on "Cheltenham good", beat War of Attrition on yielding and was the horse running second to Kauto Star before Exotic Dancer came along. He’s in the form of his life and should just about be coming to his peak at 11.
Denman has shown bits of form against not much opposition. Mainly heavy ground sloggers like Snowy Morning, Snakebite and Dream Alliance (could not even complete today with conditions seemingly in his favour, How good is the Hennessy form now?)
That Harchibald is too clever for his own good. He eyeballs Straw Bear and pulls a length clear. When the upstart pulls along side, again he eyeballs him, but there isn’t enough race left. In another 50yds I think he would have pulled in front again.
It must be infuriating for connections as he is clearly a magnificent horse.
I was dubious about the ride given by Carberry at Cheltenham, as were a number of people. Now it looks like they were spot on. If Carberry can produce it in the last 50yds again they must have a great chance at Cheltenham.
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Anyone remember Pipe senior sending out Deano’s Beano to beat THE LEGEND BARACOUDA at 14/1 in the long walk?
Bit of a family tradition turning over the jolly in the race.
Well done David, a superb training performance.
Bit of a problem today
See You There which did not run earlier in the week and Back In Business which "fell" in the fog on Thursday meet each other today at Haydock. Back In Business must be buzzing to be out again so quickly. Well placed by again by Williams, last time out he created the handicap for goodness sake, he has more on his plate today in the shape of SEE YOU THERE.
This is not a novices thread, dont say you were not told.
Good Morning Race fans and Panickers alike
I see "Sir Tom" has found a live one for today. His Christmas present to everyone no doubt. Nicholls column also gives this a EW chance. I was almost in tears when i got to the end of his column this morning.
