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Three short priced “certainties” ………..

Home Forums Tipping and Research Daily Lays And Plays Three short priced “certainties” ………..

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  • #6042
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    ………… over the Christmas period : Kauto Star, Denman, Harchibald.

    So which one is going to get beaten? One of them will they nearly always do when you have this type of scenario.

    I’m not backing anything will just watch with interest. I wouldn’t want to back any of the three at their prices but I wouldn’t want to lay them either.

    For what its worth I think Harchibald is the biggest of the certs.

    #131715
    Shergargardygargargar
    Member
    • Total Posts 14

    I personally can’t see Kauto Star or Denmman getting beat but Harchibalds chances of winning are far slimmer .

    Like you Flash I won’t be betting i’ll be watching but on the 27th of December i’ll be intrested in Mister Quasimodo and be watching his price very carefully

    #131718
    doyley
    Participant
    • Total Posts 567

    Hello,

    Hi, Flash your opening gambit is, as the topic reads, " Certainties", then after a very informative, and interesting read you close by saying " I ain’t backin’ them"… :?

    Pardon my ignorance, am I missing something… :shock:

    regards,

    doyley

    #131719
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Hello,

    Hi, Flash your opening gambit is, as the topic reads, " Certainties", then after a very informative, and interesting read you close by saying " I ain’t backin’ them"… :?

    Pardon my ignorance, am I missing something… :shock:

    I put "certainties" in speech marks as thats what they are to various people.

    #131720
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    Myself and a few others have already bet them………thanks for the vote of confidence :lol: you’re a laugh a minute

    #131722
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Myself and a few others have already bet them………thanks for the vote of confidence :lol: you’re a laugh a minute

    Lol. If its any consolation I’ll cheer them all on for ya. :lol:

    #131731
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    All three are the best horses in their respective races and I think all three will win. I certainly hope they do.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #131732
    Anzum
    Member
    • Total Posts 256

    I think Harchibald and Denman are the two most likely to win out of the three. Personally, I think the King George could see My Way De Solzen to best effect over a sharp 3 miles and shall back him accordingly.

    #131739
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Harchibald is the best bet of the lot. I got pennies on him at 6/4 on Thursday, which was a steal, but 8/11 now is still value IMO (although I’ll probably content myself with what I’ve already got).

    Kauto Star probably has to fall, MWDS find at least a stone or ED needs to have stayed somewhere other than Jackdaw’s Castle for the last few weeks in order for KS to lose in the King George.

    If I had to oppose any, it would be Denman. He hasn’t won a Grade 1 against the big boys yet, and we don’t even know if he’ll travel well over to Ireland. That makes 4/9 look pretty skinny to me.

    #131740
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5683

    Hello,

    Hi, Flash your opening gambit is, as the topic reads, " Certainties", then after a very informative, and interesting read you close by saying " I ain’t backin’ them"… :?

    Pardon my ignorance, am I missing something… :shock:

    I put "certainties" in speech marks as thats what they are to various people.

    and these various people are?

    #131749
    ClintM
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    For what it’s worth, I can’t see anything to beat either Kauto or Denman. As for Harchibald, I thought that, after last season, we’d seen the best of him. Whether or not one win ,which was far from spectacular as a time performance, indicates the horse is back to peak form is a moot point, imo.That said, this year’s Christams Hurdle doesn’t look to be the strongest renewal, so a win is certainly possible, but if one of the three is going to lose it’ll be Harchibald,imo.

    #131752
    NWRA
    Member
    • Total Posts 259

    I think Harchibald deserves the term ‘certainty’ because he’s easily the best horse in the race, and I can’t take the worst case scenarios – false pace, he falls – seriously as he’s got so much pace (a sprint-finish will suit him) and he’s the best jumper by far. I’m convinced that he’s even responding to pressure nowadays (not that he should have to)! 8/13 is a poor price for a maiden at Southwell but not (IMO) for a classy horse in a small field. Only the jockey or a freak can get him beat but that applies in every race.

    Denman is worthy of the term ‘certainty’ too. I can only see The Listener as a serious rival and I’m convinced that he won’t win (inconsistent; jumping can goto pieces if he’s pressed… by Denman?; may not stay if pressed… by Denman?; and even on soft ground, he isn’t quite top, top class whereas Denman is – so he’ll win anyway!). I don’t think he’s quite as much of a certainty as Harchibald because it’s a bigger field (bigger than I thought it would be) which increases the risk of trouble in running, and its 3m (not 2m) and over fences (not hurdles). I’m backing him at 4/9 though.

    The one I’m missing out is Kauto Star. I can’t back him confidently now, even though I can’t see anything to beat him until The Gold Cup. I don’t get that sense of invincibility from him that I used to.

    I think there’s other short-priced horses to consider too, mainly Perce Rock at Leopardstown (only serious rival is Skys The Limit, and he needs further) and Naxox at Wincanton (typical V. Williams sequence-winner by the look of it).

    #131754
    Kalidor
    Member
    • Total Posts 96

    Certainties? nothing is in jump racing but Kauto, Denman and Harchibald are as close to it as you get in their respective races.

    Of the three the one I’d be most worried about is Denman as this is another step up the ladder for him. I believe he’ll win and I hope he does as I want to see the Gold Cup rivalry intensify…. and then Kauto can destroy him at Cheltenham 8)

    All the best,
    Kalidor.

    #131765
    Kevin
    Member
    • Total Posts 295

    I fancy Exotic Dancer to beat Kuato this time. Just a fancy but there should not be much between them and if Kuato is not as good as last year or Exotic Dancer is still improving then if may be a decent bet.

    #131767
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1801

    i’m not backing any jonjo horses at the moment

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