Forum Replies Created
- Posts
Poor form is identified by the study of its previous three or four races. It is judged to be poor where a horse did not perform as expected if it had been placed in a position to take advantage of its previous good form, relative to the opposition.
Of course the horse could then be put in a position where even its poor form(comparative to its previous record) is better than that of the horses encountered today.
No information here, just speculation.
When McCririck asked Nichols about Gungado I thought there was a noticeable stutter, before he composed himself and gave the tother one. He couldn’t be heard to give Findlays horse away could he? He’s put the top weight in to give it a bit more of a lift also.
Robert,
He did more than mention it. He took the Erin race and showed how to put it into practice.
Ban it,
Form reading will be easier, nature will out and inherent ability will win the day.
I agree that some difficult horses need the whip. Some are very nasty indeed and need hitting with a shovel.
In racing I cant think of a great horse who would not have been great without the whip
Awreet
No chance in the Supreme nov after that performance in my view. I dont think he should even take part. I would rather see him in the RSA or the BRIT.
If he does take part he will lose then be stepped up in trip at Aintree for either the Mersy or the Sefton.
This probably explains why there has been no money for it.
Talk him into giving it a go, it will be valuable experience, his temperament will be tested and he will know where he stands for the second attempt.
Bulwark,
Its all relative, the opposition looks weaker but the horse itself faces a sterner more searching test than in the last run. A few questions should be answered.
A few years ago I met a punter at Galway who told me that "horses need to get 2m2 to get home up this hill over 2m" I told him that I thought his comments were hogwash. Patently the horse only needs the stamina to get 2m but he needs the strength to get up a hill doing it. Many people assume the same type of thing with Cheltenham due to the stiff finish, visually some horses appear not to get the trip which only confirms the belief.The run today is an attempt to bring Numide on, The trip is a furlong further than he will face should he attempt to contest the Supreme Novices and he will today carry 5lb more. The undulating track has some similarity in type, but not severity, to Cheltenham.
A good placement by the trainer to bring an inexperienced horse on. True enough the race will not tell how good the horse is, but the trainers put him in there, at Cheltenham, hasn’t he?
You can forget him for Cheltenham if he wins today in a canter, as he should if he’s to be considered a serious Supreme prospect. To bring the horse on he needs a stiff test. He should be told to make all at his own pace and the jockey should really push on and on and be driven the whole way, irrespective of what the other competitors are doing.
At the end of the race we will have a horse that is ready for Cheltenham but only the trainer will know how good he is.
Getting back to the problems within the racing industry.
Imagine you are young and keen jockey, and you want to succeed. The rides are hard to come by and you have no family connections.
Along comes a trainer/owner who promises you plenty of winners as long as you ride to instructions, whatever they might be.
You’re in! And that’s it. Very rarely can you get out because the bad company follows you with their demands and threats.I blame the authorities. They know what’s going on, even today, but think they can control it with a soft touch.
Wouldn’t want to put off the family spectators and punters, would we.Hi Nor1,
It must be very difficult for the authorities to control that sort of behaviour.
One solution would be to do away with stable jockeys altogether. Heres a little fantasy island.
As I see it a racehorse could be allocated a jockey 5 mins after the latest race. The jockey could be allocated from a pool of available individuals at that time.
The jockeys could be "banded" 10-20 winners so far they would be eligible to ride in class 5 and 6 races, 20 – 40 winners class 4 etc etc.
If you were exceptionally "lucky" then you could soon end up riding in listed or group races.
On the other hand, if the luck ran against, then, group performers would be riding in sellers before long.
A relegation and promotion table each month. How exciting would that be?
Bounce is just one of the excuses that I use when a particularly heavy bet I have placed heads south.
It usually occurs after the horse has run a blinder first time out and when in my analysis i didn’t even look at it and I wasn’t on it, it then proceeds to piss up. I put the offending beast into the mental notebook as everyone on the telly was going on about what a great training performance it was to bring it back after a layoff for ages and ages.
Next time I am all over it like a rash. When said beast fails, I always need a rational explanation to cover any inadequacies in my evaluation technique. I first discovered it (bounce) when another guy I was with had backed the same horse as me- I was angry and full of frustration, but he knew about bounce and explained it all to me – I felt better almost immediately.Other good excuses I keep close and at my disposal are ;
They have harrowed the sand to deep/not deep enough – delete as appropriate
They were not even trying then, todays not the day
He whipped it too much/not enough – delete as appropriate.
Trainers a bent baasterd.
That fecking jockey is useless he could find a pocket in his underpants
My grandma could have rode that ****** better, he never moved an inch.I find that these reasons (broadly)cover most of my losing bets. I have a name for it, O’Malleys LAW.
Looked like a non stayer to me, I would echo your comments, impossible to support for Cheltenham.Looks like Aintree would suit better.
Well called Luke.
Mike,
I have the ground based TIME as good to soft.
with good ground horses finishing too close for my liking.Carvillshill,
Wasn’t Mansuny banned this week?
you have to ask yourself if the runners over the last month have been placed to win or not.
If I was a pro punter who owned a horse like this, a horse who i knew was a gold cup winner waiting to happen i would tell the trainer to give it a good rest after its last win and instruct the jockey not to be to hard on the horse and when the GC price drifted to about 6 or 7 tommorrow I would be steaming in.
maybee thats just me though
with good ground horses finishing too close for my liking.