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My Tent or Yours is a more efficient hurdler than Jezki in my opinion. I would not be concerned by MTOY’s jumping. He looks a class horse. It’s a competitive looking Champion Hurdle at this early stage but would expect if MTOY’s preparation is okay, he’ll be very close.
Punters tend to over exaggerate these races before they are run too and later after them one or two of the big names get beat, the race is under-rated. Reality is somewhere in between. 2011 CH renewal is a good example – Menorah, Binocular and Peddlars Cross were viewed a lot differently going into that race to what they might be now.
Our Conor still has a lot to prove too. I’d be a lot more confident in the Supreme form than I would the Triumph form. Hurricane Fly is getting on now and while a great servant, he can’t go on forever. His recent return to action, while excusable, is something you might expect of a champion rising 10. It’s just an early sign that the great performances are going to be less frequent. The New One is a contender I’d be a big fan of and would expect like MTOY if everything goes to plan in the lead-up, he’d have a serious chance.
It does not seem sensible to me either. But remember computers can only do what they’ve been programmed to do. They’ve no concept of value. That’s why Mourad was being matched at 1.03 long after he was beaten !! And it’s also how I managed to back Organised Confusion at 28/1 with 2 to jump in the Irish Grand National. So sometimes, you can get very lucky. Even those who backed VLV at 7/2 on the run-in on the Daq spotted an opportunity and took it.
Eclipse First, I’m afraid computers controlling the in-running markets are here to say. Betfair even built an API to facilitate more of them. And as far as they are concerned, the more of them they are, the better.
It’s also impossible to ban them completely as to the Betfair servers matching the bets, it could be an automated system or it could be a person manually inputting the odds, how is it supposed to know? All Betfair can do is identify an account which is striking bets at an incredible frequency, then they will know what they are dealing with. But then the programmers will just make their systems harder to detect, striking with less frequency or perhaps operating between multiple accounts.
Also it seems widely accepted that there was a flaw in the API software. All it took was the magic amount of 21,474,836 pounds and 48 pence to expose this flaw. Yeats, the layer who had 1,000 pounds in his account did not intentionally make this happen. He might well have been millions of miles from his computer when it had happened.
Long Run has a number of problems, amateur jockey, suspect jumper, running against probably the greatest ever but by far his biggest problem is that he needs further than three miles. It took him an age to assert himself in the Gold Cup, and again today, he was just getting going as the line was approaching. The extra 2.5 furlongs in March will suit him.
Not a topic I’m too familiar with. Does it ultimately come down to the big races or do the wins in grade 2s and 3s add up at the end of the season. Looking at the big races, it’s pretty even.
Champion Hurdle:
Rock On Ruby / Zarkandar vs Binocular / Granouet /Spirit SonAdvantage Henderson but not a race in which Nicholls is without a chance.
Champion Chase:
Kauto Stone vs Finians RainbowEven again.
Stayer’s Hurdle
Big Bucks vs Oscar WhiskeyOnly one winner here though as the weakest of the big four, probably the most irrrelevant in this argument
Gold Cup:
Kauto Star vs Long RunCan’t see PN winning the Gold Cup. Are you sure about that?
Novice chasers:
Silviniaco Conti / Al Ferof vs Sprinter Sacre / Bobs WorthArkle is wide open, no shock if either Al Ferof or Sprinter Sacre win it. RSA looks at the mercy of Grand Crus if he wants it. Silviniaco Conti looks the second best novice staying chaser to me.
Other:
Henderson looks stronger here wit Burton Port, Riverside Theatre and Master of the Hall to call in but Nicholls main stars already listed above.Another point worth maybe considering…??….is the Grand National. Nicholls, despite a poor record, aims 2 or 3 at it whereas Henderson is known as having a dislike for it, and rarely sends anything with a chance.
My opinion is that it looks even and if Nicholls already has an advantage, I’d be inclined to think he has enough of a batallion to maintain that lead.
A jockey can’t do much with a lousy horse, but he can help a great horse win.
I think the jockey accounts for 15% of a horse’s performance on any given day. He takes the horse strengths and weaknesses into account and adjusts his strategy accordingly
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In all fairness, what would Fallon or Murtagh do to maximise SYT’s strengths and lessen his weaknesses that Heffernan for instance could not?
I would put the figure of 15% a lot lower, maybe 1-2%. 15% would make a 3/1 shot (ridden by a good jockey) a 9/1 shot if ridden by a so-called lesser jockey. Is So You Think a 3/1 chance ridden by a "top" jockey and 9/1 ridden by Heffernan? Certainly not.
The ride on Hurricane Run was very nice I have to say. But ones like that where a runner threads a passage from the back of the field are always nice. However like every other jockey, Fallon was not immune to a bad ride, and he had some nightmares at Longchamp too. Look up the 2007 Prix Du Moulin.
The idea that Joseph O’Brien or Seamie Heffernan will turn victory into defeat is ludricious. It’s simply lazy analysis and I can only explain it by people wishing to make us all think that they are all experts in jockeyship themselves? As if any of the jockey bashers have ever sat on a horse!!
It’s a one-off race. The jockeys will deal with the race as it unfolds and as with all Arcs, there probably will be some hard luck stories. But a horse ridden by Lemaire or Moore could just as easily be subject to some bad luck as one that’s ridden by Heffernan or O’Brien. You can’t make a prediction about who’s going to get involved in bad luck though (it’s an inevitable part of racing), which is why I find it amazing that people will change their selection because of a change in jockey?
If Seamie is riding, I will back him. If Joseph is on, I shall not.
You believe So You Think will win if Heffernan rides him?
And think he will lose if O’Brien rides?
How do you make a prediction like that?
You do realise it’s the horse who does the running?
The Hays pay Jamie Spencer to ride their horses whether trained by APOB or not. Why would anyone other than Spencer ride Cape Blanco or Fame And Glory when he is paid by the owners to ride them?
It’s a completely different scenario re-SYT. Heffernan, O’Donoghue and O’Brien are all on the books at Ballydoyle, and there is no pre-arrangement over who rides what.
Once again, you are posting ill-informed nonsense. Just like your peculiar belief that Tabor has given up going to the races because O’Brien rode some of his horses !!!
By the way, I am Fallon’s biggest fan but he has not been riding anywhere close to what he once he did since his return. O’Brien has ridden in more Group Ones in 2011 and won as many as Fallon. Your assessment of Fallon is clouded by a love you had for him 7/8 years ago.
You think Joseph has not ridden in big fields before?
You think his riding ability will be lessened because the race is being held at Longchamp?
You think he won’t be able to deal with rough tactics with French jockeys will bring?Once again………..
Just his non presence at the big ones.Except the Derby.Incidentally I never bet.
He was at Royal Ascot with his wife, Doreen, leading in all four winners. I’m almost fairly sure he was at Leopardstown for the Irish Champion too. Anyway you’re belief that Tabor is annoyed about jockey bookings is based upon his apparant non-appearance at some race meetings (which is presumably because he hasn’t been in front of TV cameras?)? I won’t even bother debating that !!!
The closer to the race you get the more unreal the "best available jockey" theory becomes.The whole thing is a laugh sadly.Aidan will have his way with OD,Heffo and Joseph all riding in the ARC for fun.Michael
Tabor seems to have distanced himself from the whole mess!Watch this page
.
Where is the evidence for the words in bold?
It was rumoured to have been decided yesterday morning that Joseph O’Brien would ride. As the news left Ballydoyle, it sparked an alarming drift on Betfair.
Of course, this isn’t a problem for me. I’ve backed the horse already and would not be concerned in the slightest that O’Brien Jnr is riding.
Andyod, on the other hand, appears to think that putting a jockey up on the horse, who’s never even sat on him, would be the answer? Hmmmmmmmmmm…..I wonder sometimes about this guy Andyod. Are all his bets jockey motivated or does he study the horse’s form?
Anyway, it’s O’Brien or Heffernan, so Andyod may give it up with this thread.
Could So You Think still be ‘acclimatising’ over here and will be a better horse next year if he stays in training? There was a horse whose name escapes me that ran well at Cheltenham the other year and the trainer said it took him a while to find his feet here, and that was only coming from across the channel. Either way, I’m chuffed that he’s running as I’ll get to see him!
Rippling Ring? Paul Nicholls was adamant he needed time to get used to the UK climate (bought from South Africa). I would say that is the horse you refer to above?
Apologies Ginger Tipster…maybe your post was implying that ATD would handle the surface better than his rivals? If so, quite possibly true.
Midday likes to hear her feet and Twice Over? I’m not sure if he’s that strong on soft ground. Anyway, my point about ATD still stands – he is far better the harder the ground.
GingerTipster…..I like your posts and agree with most of what you’ve said on this thread! But…
….There’s no way Await The Dawn has a better chance on soft ground as indicated by your last post on page 2 of this thread. This is a horse by Giant’s Causeway with a high and straight knee action and who has run up some very decent times in Group 2s and Group 3s. At Royal Ascot, he won in spite of the ground – the faster the ground, the better for Await The Dawn. No doubt about that.
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Andyod – you really make me laugh! If anyone wants to go back to page 7 of the King George thread, they will see that after the jockey had been announced, Andyod acknowledges that SNA is drifting. Why then, if you had such a problem with the jockey did you not go and lay off on your SNA bet (placed before riding arrangements were made public) for a tidy little profit?
Blaming everything but your own punting inadequacies is the lowest form of gambler.
You waited until SNA was defeated and instead of admitting you got it wrong, blamed the jockey, the trainer, the race, everyone but yourself!!
Already on this thread, you have put yourself in a position to the exact same thing post-Juddmonte.
What exactly would you like to know about Ian Mongan? Like Joseph O’Brien, he is a very capable horseman but I suspect you are more interested in knowing if you can blame him for your losing Twice Over bet!!!
For what it’s worth, I am quite confident Await The Dawn will win today (well as confident as you can be in any event where there are so many variables, i.e. a horse race).
Believe all that is said by King Coolmore do you Andy?
He’d had two races before the Prince Of Wales, one in a Group 1. Why should the Prince Of Wales bring So You Think on more than his two previous runs?
The POW was not being used as a prep for other races GingerTipster. The horse was undercooked in both the Mooresfield and the Tatts GC but was still good enough to win. I’d hazard a guess that SYT was even more wound up for Royal Ascot – still undercooked though – and simply wasn’t good enough to win it running at 95%-96% his best. As the POW was a lot tougher assignment than the two previous.
Also I wouldn’t term the POW as an error on Aidan’s behalf. He knew exactly what he was doing and almost stole the race with a horse who was only going to get better as the season progressed. As Ballydoyle know only too well, there’s a certain fallacy in having the best horses peak in mid-June and then getting progressively worse for the rest of the season culminating in below par efforts in races like the Arc and the Classic. So You Think will be different. He’s winning races whilst not quite been fully tuned up. The day of the Arc / Cox Plate / Classic is the day SYT should run his best race.
I for one am not saying Joseph rode poorly.I am saying the task set him was one for a seasoned professional jockey like the best available.Joseph is just a boy with little experience of the tactics called for to win Group One races.To be sent out to compete with Moore,Dettori,Buick was just too much.He seemed mesmerized.For his own good I believe he should have to prove himself as a jockey like other winners of the Irish Apprentice Championship.Like for instance Cathy Gannon.Let him come over to England like Queally or Spencer and prove himself.Ballydoyle owe it to their horses as well as to their apprentices.Take yesterdays race,do you think Fallon would have gotten lost in the middle of the race or allowed the winner to steal so much ground?He was the only jockey to cop on to Murtagh in the English Oaks.Seems like Coolmore are so successful that they don’t have to win anymore.Pity.And Godolfin are so desperate that they will try anything to win.More Pity.
That is a far more accurate post Andyod. Only bit I’d find fault with is the where you intimate that O’Brien
got lost in the middle of the race
. But I guess that’s subjective and it’s not a point worth arguing over. Good post.
