December 26, 2011 at 22:32 #20612HurdygurdymanMember
- Total Posts 1555
Not who’s the best but who will win the Championship?
Paul Nichols currently hold sway after Kauto grabbed the King George in a brilliant race against Long Run and co.
He’s currently 1/3 to win the title and Nicky is around 5/2 but do the odds reflect their real chances?
I juts can’t see PN holding on such is the abundance of talent Nicky has at his disposal plus more than a few yet to run this season.
A big lump of cash earned by PN comes from Kauto’s wins in the Betfair and the KG but I casn’t see PN winning either the Champion Hurdle or the Gold Cup and he’ll have to go some to win the Arkle and beat whatever wins the Wayward lad tomorrow.
I reckon Nicky is something of a good thing to win the title again despite being a fair bit behind at the moment.
Thoughts? Please.December 27, 2011 at 00:20 #384306SoYouThinkMember
- Total Posts 42
Not a topic I’m too familiar with. Does it ultimately come down to the big races or do the wins in grade 2s and 3s add up at the end of the season. Looking at the big races, it’s pretty even.
Rock On Ruby / Zarkandar vs Binocular / Granouet /Spirit Son
Advantage Henderson but not a race in which Nicholls is without a chance.
Kauto Stone vs Finians Rainbow
Big Bucks vs Oscar Whiskey
Only one winner here though as the weakest of the big four, probably the most irrrelevant in this argument
Kauto Star vs Long Run
Can’t see PN winning the Gold Cup. Are you sure about that?
Silviniaco Conti / Al Ferof vs Sprinter Sacre / Bobs Worth
Arkle is wide open, no shock if either Al Ferof or Sprinter Sacre win it. RSA looks at the mercy of Grand Crus if he wants it. Silviniaco Conti looks the second best novice staying chaser to me.
Henderson looks stronger here wit Burton Port, Riverside Theatre and Master of the Hall to call in but Nicholls main stars already listed above.
Another point worth maybe considering…??….is the Grand National. Nicholls, despite a poor record, aims 2 or 3 at it whereas Henderson is known as having a dislike for it, and rarely sends anything with a chance.
My opinion is that it looks even and if Nicholls already has an advantage, I’d be inclined to think he has enough of a batallion to maintain that lead.December 27, 2011 at 19:34 #384476RoseblossomParticipant
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I think that the only reason people thought this season would be more competitive is because noone expected Kauto Star to return in such blazing form. Had Long Run won his last two races things would have been much closer but there is £400k between them and I think that’s too much to make up. Henderson would have to win all 3 main Championship races just to get a lead I think?
Burton Port and Riverside Theatre will be coming back from long injury problems so you can’t count them as big guns at this point. Master of the Hall likes small fields and I don’t think Festival races suit him.
Also, Nicholls is more inclined it seems to put horses in races as substitutes – like Kauto Stone for Tataniano – whereas Henderson didn’t consider (for example) entering French Opera as a back up for Finian’s Rainbow.
When it comes down to it, I think Nicholls is prepared to fight harder.December 28, 2011 at 14:27 #384590DaveMonkMember
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Henderson is more and more targetting the class 2/3 races as well. A few 6/7 grands here and there. Amazing how much of a difference it can make to your end of season total.
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