[slipperytoad]

3rd December

Lingfield Park 14:20 – Fred & Ron Gibson Memorial Handicap, 3yo plus, 1m, Class 3

Yer Woman (IRE) 3.21
Nazreef 3.06
Harald Bluetooth (IRE) 1.75
Mr Willis 1.36
Layline (IRE) 0.87
Suffolk Punch (IRE) 0.59
Baylini 0.33
The Fifth Member (IRE) 0.31
Big Bay (USA) -1.92
Everymanforhimself (IRE) -3.58

Lingfield Park 15:30 – Totepool A Better Way To Bet Handicap, 3yo plus, 7f, Class 5

Chilli Green 2.49
Headache 1.53
Highland Harvest 1.20
Cut And Thrust (IRE) 1.11
Spinning Bailiwick -0.30
Cativo Cavallino -1.20
Posy Fossil (USA) -1.51
Tenacestream (CAN) -1.75
Yankee Storm -2.02
Bonheurs Art (IRE) -2.91
Starwatch -3.73
Sarah’s Art (IRE) -4.69
Rum King (USA) -8.09
Cut The Cackle (IRE) -11.75

Wolverhampton 16:45 – Play Roulette at Totesport.com Handicap, 3yo plus, 1m 141y, Class 4

Slikback Jack (IRE) 4.44
Elijah Pepper (USA) 3.58

Dahaam 2.00

Faithful Ruler (USA) 1.00

Spectait -1.56

Wigram’s Turn (USA) -1.75
Opus Maximus (IRE) -2.83

Wolverhampton 18:15 – Play Blackjack at Totesport.com Handicap, 3yo plus, 5f 216y, Class 5

Riflessione 5.30

Cavitie 4.18
Desert Icon (IRE) 2.20
Devil You Know (IRE) 1.91
Desert Strike 1.22

Ballodair (IRE) -0.88
Ace Of Spies (IRE) -1.28
Norville (IRE) -2.21
Cardinal -2.28

Boxer Shorts -16.26

[slipperytoad]

Slipperytoad

Kempton Ratings (1st Dec)

16:30 – Kia Sportage Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 4

Dark Lane 4.21
Ray Of Joy 3.00

Breathless Kiss (USA) 2.62
Kylladdie 1.52
Vhujon (IRE) 1.08
Lord Of The Reins (IRE) 0.95
Flash McGahon (IRE) -0.22
Crown (IRE) -1.61
Little Perisher -2.75
Jack Rackham -4.56

17:00 – skysports.com Racing Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Cavitie 4.84
Mack’s Sister 4.21
Hidden Destiny 3.35
Lake Chini (IRE) 2.39
Moonlight Cass (IRE) 2.27
Nollaig Shona (IRE) 2.24
Resplendent Alpha 1.60
Chinese Democracy (USA) 1.12
Namir (IRE) 0.69
Pilgrim Dancer (IRE) -0.40
Torres Del Paine -1.96

C’Mon You Irons (IRE) -3.43

[

0634 edit

] sorted rating

17:30 – skysports.com Racing Handicap (div 2) , 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Waterloo Dock 1.61
Liberty Trail (IRE) 1.00

Nacho Libre 0.87
Super Frank (IRE) 0.79
Dvinsky (USA) 0.67
Silvee -0.13
Clerical (USA) -0.98
Doctor Hilary -1.48
Whatyouwoodwishfor (USA) -4.72
Mogok Ruby -4.76
Katy’s Secret -6.15
Alpha Tauri (USA) -30.3

[slipperytoad]

Slipperytoad Kempton Ratings

16:30 – Kia Sportage Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 4

Dark Lane 4.21
Ray Of Joy 3.00
Breathless Kiss (USA) 2.62
Kylladdie 1.52
Vhujon (IRE) 1.08
Lord Of The Reins (IRE) 0.95
Flash McGahon (IRE) -0.22
Crown (IRE) -1.61
Little Perisher -2.75
Jack Rackham -4.56

17:00 – skysports.com Racing Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Cavitie 4.84
Torres Del Paine -1.96
Namir (IRE) 0.69
Moonlight Cass (IRE) 2.27
Nollaig Shona (IRE) 2.24
Pilgrim Dancer (IRE) -0.40
Lake Chini (IRE) 2.39
Chinese Democracy (USA) 1.12
C’Mon You Irons (IRE) -3.43
Hidden Destiny 3.35
Resplendent Alpha 1.60
Mack’s Sister 4.21

17:30 – skysports.com Racing Handicap (div 2) , 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Waterloo Dock 1.61
Liberty Trail (IRE) 1.00
Nacho Libre 0.87
Super Frank (IRE) 0.79
Dvinsky (USA) 0.67
Silvee -0.13
Clerical (USA) -0.98
Doctor Hilary -1.48
Whatyouwoodwishfor (USA) -4.72
Mogok Ruby -4.76
Katy’s Secret -6.15
Alpha Tauri (USA) -30.3

[slipperytoad]

slipperytoad ratings

30th November –

Lingfield

14:15 – Betdaq The Betting Exchange Handicap, 3yo plus, 1m, Class 4

Syrian 5.56
Elspeth’s Boy (USA) 4.10
Young Dottie 2.39
Thunderball 2.10
Kavachi (IRE) 1.35
Waabel 0.94
Halsion Chancer 0.71
Wilfred Pickles (IRE) -0.05
Final Drive (IRE) -0.92

Salient -2.49

15:10 – Felbridge Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Charles Darwin (IRE) 3.68
Loyal Royal (IRE) 1.24
Mr Skipiton (IRE) 0.94
Espy 0.41
Best One 0.07
Mary’s Pet -0.43
Grand Palace (IRE) -0.52
West Leake (IRE) -2.95
South African Gold (USA) -2.96

Interchoice Star -4.60
Flyjack (USA) -7.27
Heliocentric -32.63

15:40 – Felbridge Handicap (div 2), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Rio Royale (IRE) 5.93
Chinese Democracy (USA) 5.70
Bobs Dreamflight 2.70
Final Rhapsody 0.38
Athaakeel (IRE) 0.19
Durgan 0.16
Dancing Welcome -0.24

Meydan Dubai (IRE) -0.82
Pragmatist -1.42
Poppy Golightly -1.49
Figaro Flyer (IRE) -4.65
Fayre Bella -5.05

30th November –

Southwell

15:30 – Southwell-racecourse.co.uk Handicap, 3yo plus, 1m, Class 6

Watch Chain (IRE) 2.19
Ubenkor (IRE) 1.53
Ingleby King (USA) 0.81

Almahaza (IRE) 0.77
Ancient Times (USA) -0.71
Morocchius (USA) -1.12
Mojeerr -2.53
Olney Lass -3.47
Plenilune (IRE) -6.11
Orpen Wide (IRE) -9.48
Flores Sea (USA) -10.95
Ryan’s Rock -39.89

[slipperytoad]

Slipperytoad Ratings

Wolverhampton 15:20 – Bet Europa League Football – Betdaq Handicap, 3yo plus, 5f 20y, Class 6

Prince James 6.54
Sharp Shoes 4.31
Wooden King (IRE) 2.53

Towy Boy (IRE) 2.06
Tyrannosaurus Rex (IRE) -0.89
Flaxen Lake -0.97
Monte Major (IRE) -1.00
Straboe (USA) -1.11
Cape Royal -2.31
The Tatling (IRE) -5.15
Liberty Ship -7.54
Ridley Didley (IRE) -8.45
Steel City Boy (IRE) -8.73

[slipperytoad]

Slipperytoad Ratings – Sunday November 28 2010 – Kempton Park

Really Really poor card today

14:15 – Boxingdayraces.co.uk Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 7

Alana Banana (IRE) 2.50
Cheery Cat (USA) 2.42

River Bounty 0.89
Song Of Praise 0.62
Boy The Bell 0.25
Polemica (IRE) -1.51
Jonny Ebeneezer -2.22
Braddock (IRE) -4.19
Ballyvonane (USA) -5.11
Flow Chart (IRE) -7.86

17:20 – Name A Race For Christmas Presents Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 7f, Class 6

Cawdor (IRE) 6.82
Perfect Ch’I (IRE) 2.04
Leelu 1.31

Super Frank (IRE) 1.24
First Service (IRE) 1.16
Delaware Dancer (IRE) 0.97
Annes Rocket (IRE) -0.12
Minortransgression (USA) -0.33
Sovereignty (JPN) -0.47
Downhill Skier (IRE) -0.53
Dvinsky (USA) -1.08
Sonny G (IRE) -1.28
Teen Ager (FR) -4.51
Alpha Tauri (USA) -35.06

17:50 – Name A Race For Christmas Presents Handicap (div 2), 3yo plus, 7f, Class 6

Fine Ruler (IRE) 1.81
Rich Boy 1.75
The Happy Hammer (IRE) 1.70
Pipers Piping (IRE) 1.67
Poor Prince 0.38
Spirit Of Love (IRE) 0.30
Nacho Libre 0.19

Kipchak (IRE) -0.08
Emiratesdotcom -0.92
Simple Rhythm -1.52
Premier League -2.74
Ede’s Dot Com (IRE) -3.46
This Ones For Eddy -4.63
Cactus King -5.87

[slipperytoad]

Slipperytoad Ratings

16:40 – Wolverhampton Racecourse – All Conferencing Needs Met Handicap, 3yo plus, 1m 141y, Class 6

Final Drive (IRE) 4.67

Ella Grace (USA) 3.31
Empress Leizu (IRE) 2.86
Strike Force 1.86
Forbidden (IRE) 1.80
Powerful Pierre 1.80
Steed 0.79
Lord Theo 0.31
Guga (IRE) -0.55
Shared Moment (IRE) -0.75
Kumbeshwar -0.76
Eastern Gift -1.07

Updated 12:37: Collect Art N/R

[slipperytoad]

Ratings 13th November – Wolverhampton

17:50 – Enjoy The Ringside Entertainment After Racing Handicap, 3yo plus, 5f 20y, Class 5

Aalsmeer 1.99
Triple Dream 1.32
Methaaly (IRE) 0.51
Grudge 0.07

Lake Chini (IRE) -0.38
Sharp Bullet (IRE) -0.82
Hypnosis -3.60
Canadian Danehill (IRE) -6.42
Harry Up -7.59
Silver Linnet (IRE) -9.65
The Tatling (IRE) -11.02
Silver Prelude -14.06

19:20 – Bet Multiples – Betdaq Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 1m 141y, Class 6

Tallawalla (IRE) 1.37
Farmers Dream (IRE) 1.25
Full Victory (IRE) 0.20
Querido (GER) -0.20

Hector Spectre (IRE) -0.26
Quadrifolio -0.81
King Of Connacht -8.89
Sue And Sue -12.71
Lend A Light -23.35

19:50 – Bet Multiples – Betdaq Handicap (div 2), 3yo plus, 1m 141y, Class 6

Join Up 2.07
Royal Patriot (IRE) -0.01
Reddy To Star (IRE) -1.73
Just Jimmy (IRE) -2.32
Papa’s Princess -2.89
Lujano -3.53
Cyril The Squirrel -3.82 <- Win @ 9/2

[slipperytoad]

To make it easier for all to benefit from my work (and save time)I have decided to post my ratings on this thread.

Typically I use my ratings to create fair odds to identify value in the early price markets for the top 6 rated horses

as my records indicated that the winner is within this subset over 60% of the time

.

Depending on individual preferences you can use or abuse my ratings accordingly.

13:00 – Ronnie Smith ‘the Godfather’ 80th Birthday Surprise Handicap, 3yo plus, 7f, Class 5

The Happy Hammer (IRE) 6.096819847
Woolston Ferry (IRE) 4.846055253
Scottish Glen 3.536302582

Fol Liam 3.391410177
Picansort 3.07069256
Chilli Green 2.45603238
Pipers Piping (IRE) 1.751154459
Super Frank (IRE) 1.508098874
Safwaan 1.438223506
Ivory Lace 0.73679119
Kipchak (IRE) 0.392609728
Bookiesindex Girl (IRE) -1.151096798
Rubenstar (IRE) -2.626985944
Perfect Ch’I (IRE) -4.210362036

14:00 – Bet Test Match Rugby – Betdaq Handicap (div 1), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 5

Arctic Lynx (IRE) 3.956602636

White Shift (IRE) 3.22106552
Emiratesdotcom 2.261811368
Riflessione 2.156442615
Mogok Ruby 1.3585897
Tislaam (IRE) 1.285309961
Durgan 0.62654534
Highland Harvest -0.764049997
The Strig -0.940546837
C’Mon You Irons (IRE) -2.592482179

14:30 – Bet Test Match Rugby – Betdaq Handicap (div 2), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 5

Avonvalley 4.19644202
Danzoe (IRE) 2.755935506

Resplendent Alpha 0.130498608
Loyal Royal (IRE) -0.164639213
Moonlight Cass (IRE) -0.17733679
Dreamacha -0.19304241
Make My Dream -0.366855592
Cerito -0.708131105
Sherjawy (IRE) -2.53297795
Waterloo Dock -2.679484324
Charles Darwin (IRE) -2.987494644
Dubai Legend -6.681655768

15:00 – Lingfield Park Marriott Hotel & Country Club Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 2

Edinburgh Knight (IRE) 4.108640024
Mirza 2.381497113
Take Ten 1.710549756

Arganil (USA) 0.692403242
Pavershooz 0.515149545
Billy Red -0.457463755
Flipando (IRE) -1.981155286
Tourist -3.429491464
Matsunosuke -4.41949025

[slipperytoad]

Apologies guys but punting and my day job takes up most of my time leaving little for reading forums and catching up on content.

Will post A/W selections sporadically throughout the winter but keep it up in my absence..

I’ll be watching.

[slipperytoad]

Cracking card at Wolverhampton today!

Wolverhampton 2.1

5 http://bit.ly/9rYUX7
My general rule for this time of year on the All Weather is to eliminate from consideration any horse that ran in the Dubai Carnival. My personal experience so far indicates that the form from Dubal does not translate, similar to that of Cheltenham form which rarely translates into a good run at Aintree a few weeks later.

I relearned the lesson yesterday that Wolverhampton is a tight track and therefore draw berth is important. With that Mahadee has too be on the shortlist given his blistering form recently. The nagging doubt is that his recent wins were at Lingfield which is a different course configuration to the flat track of Wolverhampton. Can’t dismiss Redford who holds a group 3 entry in Ireland (turf) or Mia’s Boy who has a 126 day course absence but runs well fresh.

I’ll side with the value in a speculative punt on Souter´s Sister who looks the stranger in the field

Wolverhampton 3.25

http://bit.ly/92qPuc
The draw bias has been kind to the market leaders so there is a width of a fag paper difference between my opinion and the crowds. However with General Elliot out of the race, the pace is predicted to be slow and muddling. I smell and upset but I’ll cover myself just in case

Spinning and Black Dahlia

a. Fanunalter
b. Flipando
c. Spinning
d. Black Dahlia

exacta: AB over CD (4 lines)

Wolverhampton 4.3

5 http://bit.ly/cNAwQl
I think we have a vulnerable favourite in Tiddliwinks given his wide draw. However THE big problem trying to find something to beat him. If there is the slightest of market drifts pre-race on Tiddliwinks then I’ll close my eyes for a point and shoot at Dubai Dynamo and maybe Thebes

[slipperytoad]

Kempton 6.45

http://bit.ly/9rIiH7

Whiskey Junction @ 4/1
Todber @ 11/2
Welcome Approach @ 11/2

Kempton 7.45

http://bit.ly/a7lGRl

Vainglory @ 5/2
Jesse James @ 11/2

[slipperytoad]

Kempton 3.55

however in a classless field and with Kipchak ensuring a good pace,

yeah.. so much so he won the race..

[slipperytoad]

Kempton 3.55

Priti Fabulous 11/4
Ray Of Joy 10/3
Last Sovereign 5/1
Sunshine Always 13/2
Cut And Thrust 10/1
Kipchak 10/1
Carmenero 20/1
Millfields Dreams 28/1

A couple of negatives against Last Sovereign which makes the race playable. If returning to form at a distance he likes

Priti Fabulous

is fair value in my book.

Ray Of Joy

form screams 6 furlongs, however in a classless field and with Kipchak ensuring a good pace, he may be able to ration his energy distribution effectively to pick off tiring runners in the final furlong. The opposite logic is that the form book is right and his tank empties out. A speculative punt at good odds

a. Priti Fabulous
b. Ray Of Joy
c. Kipchak
d. Cut And Thrust

A

over

BCD

exacta (3 lines)

[slipperytoad]

Nice to see Gitano Hernando win well. Done as he should against that field but is a promising horse.

Yep.. As Mr Coleman said he "

opened his legs and showed his class

"

[slipperytoad]

Lingfield 3.15
Glamorous Spirit 10/3
Peak District 4/1
Even Bolder 4/1
Step It Up 9/1
Stolt 9/1
Colorus 14/1
Thoughtsofstardom 25/1

Going out on a limb as I feel Peak District’s drop in class is negative along with a poor win strike rate. Plenty of pace in the race the positive being a proportion drawn low which will allow front runner

Glamorous Spirit

to drop in and pounce when the early pace collapses in the final furlong. Then again the scenario above may not pan out . Even Bolder is not out of it though..

Lingfield 3:50
Jaconet even
Arganil 6/1
Ebraam 8/1
Bel Cantor 14/1
Green Manalishi 14/1
Smarten Die 28/1
Brunelleschi 50/1
Mullionmileanhour 100/1

Jaconet

looks solid.. no bet

Lingfield 4:20
Gitano Hernando 10/11
Yahrab 4/1
Suits Me 9/1
Mister Green 18/1
Baylini 28/1
Victoria Sponge 33/1
Confidentiality 50/1
Mesa Marauder 100/1

Gitano Hernando looks rock solid but a Group 1 penalty and 140 day course absence "may" make him vulnerable. At the prices I’m prepared to find out with

Yahrab

and possibly Suit’s Me who will get the run of the race so can run to suit.

Lingfield 4.55
Elna Bright 2/1
Mahadee 4/1
Tourist 13/2
Ishiadancer 8/1
Seek The Fair Land 9/1
Kyllachy Star 9/1

Elana Bright

looks legitimate.. 20%/80% win place

For the adventurous types

1. Glamorous Spirit
2. Yahrab
3. Jaconet
4. Elna Bright
Lucky 15

[slipperytoad]

Bloody hell Slippery, you’re ambitous wanting 22/1 on Muktasb

Good luck with your plays though!

Yep, however the benefit of creating your own odds is that you don’t have to lay em (or offer e/w terms) unless you are playing on the exchanges..

[Author]

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