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Saturday February 19th 2011

Ratings and Betting Forcasts: http://is.gd/9eeJEj

Lingfield Park 15:25
Desert Strike and Prize Point both lose their winning jockey’s which is a negative in my book. Al Gillani is noted as one who is returning to form

Shortlist

1. Primo De Vida 2. Al Gillani 3. Prize Point

Lingfield Park 4.00
I can find negatives in most of the runners except the current market leader and top rated Advertisement.

Edit @ 13:00

– Perfect Act may be worth a speculative 20%/80% win/place bet

Lingfield Park 5.10
The Which Doctor is on a long losing run and Baylini is better over much further than today’s distance.

Shortlist

1. Elna Bright 2. Night Lily 3. Audemar

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Southwell 2.30

Dancing Freddy – Trainer on the cold list
Gold Story – Beaten Favourite the last 3 times
Muqalad – Poor recent form
Errigal Lad – Poor form at Southwell
Dancing Wave – Out of the handicap
Itsthursdayalready – Pace biased although good recent form.
Quadrifolio – Poor recent form
Fair Bunny – No Southwell form
Ponting – Potential but no value
Running Mate – Long absence but stranger in the field
White Ledger – Out of the handicap, last win 2004

Shocking race and one to avoid. The market is always a good guide at Southwell so if Itsthursdayalready receives market support “I’m out”. If not against my better judgement I’ll make a speculative 20% 80% win/place bet on

Running Mate

and

Muqalad

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I’ve been busy with my day job ..

Thursday 27th January

Kempton Park: 19:20

Comment

: Not a race to get heavily involved in as there are multiple horses in this field that have more questions than answers

Contenders

Vintage – Good recent race, 7yo

Ebraam – 8yo but in good form based on recent run
Methaaly – 8yo, in good form but need to overcome high BHA rating
Bahamian Lad – 108 day course absence. Last All Weather win in 2009

Diriculous – Win last time out and retains winning jockey. Tandem with Methaaly whom he beat.

Kempton Park: 19:50

Contenders

: 1. Yakama 2. Vezere 3. Sunset Place 4. Mr Chocolate Drop

tissues can found here: http://is.gd/4hAiEX

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Terrific work at Kempton, Slippery.

You must have been the only punter in the world to put up ol’Johnny. And a juicy forecast in the nightcap too.

One thing you can guarantee at Kempton is a good pace (unlike Leafy, which is becoming an embarrassment again), and all ratings systems work better with a good pace.

Thanks Max.. Still need to tweak the ratings weightings but its getting there. That 16/1 and 6/1 paid for a lot of losers

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Some late analysis (just got back from work)

Wednesady 19th January

Kempton Park 19:30

Contenders

: Lord Deevert, Zim Ho, Jonny Ebeneezer

Kempton Park 20:00

Contenders

: Yakama, Crystallize, West Leake, Mororless

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Tuesday 18th January

Wolverhampton 15:20

[attachment=0:2vg7c72s]15.20.png[/attachment:2vg7c72s]

Contenders

Lake Chini

: well rated, but 3lbs out of the handicap

Elhamri

: 7yo, high BHA

Spin Again

: won seller last time out, poor overall strike rate

Perlachy

: 7yo, hgh BHA

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You can have that 12/1 now Max!

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No account of the grade of Dubai’s race eh max? The great thing about making your own odds is that your pitting your wits against the market. If you get it right happy days. If you get it wrong your error is not compounded by laying the winner in your book

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Back again!

The reason for not posting further selections from the trial is that I’ve spent some time analysing the data and crunching the numbers. In summary the ratings were far too complex leading to statistical noise. Also by including many variables the ratings became a mirror of the market.

Using statistics and multiple regression I’ve distilled the ratings down to three factors to determine relative ranking between horses. More importantly I fink these factors are undervalued by the punting massive and therefore have high wagering value to use a phrase by the respected author Mark Cramer. It also gives my tissue a different look and feel from the market which is good in my book.

I have also resurrected an approach that focuses purely on value bets as opposed to "fancies" in an attempted to become more objective and less subjective. You’ll see below the tissue includes "edge" and "bank" fields which represent how much value is being offered by the market and given that edge how much of my bank I should apportion (per the recommendations in the book "Money Secrets of the Racetrack"

Finally I’ve narrowed down the races I plan to study because of time pressures during the week. This will allow me more time to get into the guts of a single race. When time allows i.e. weekends I take a stab at other races.

Sunday 15th January – Southwell 3.35

[attachment=0:2mkp4ja2]3.35.png[/attachment:2mkp4ja2]

: 8yo, dropped in grade, loves Southwell

Everymanforhimself

: Stamina concerns?

Follow The Flag

: 7yo, win last time out, now running off highest BHA mark

Gala Casino Star

: 6-0 on All Weather surface, looks over rated

: Likes Southwell, high BHA mark?

Conry

: Ran well last time out, elevated in class high BHA mark

Tevez

: 6yo, high BHA mark

Prince Of Vasa

: Stamina issues

1st Everymanforhimself @ 11/4

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Saturday 8th January

Lingfield Park 12:50

http://i36.servimg.com/u/f36/15/86/83/31/12_5010.png

Lingfield Park 13:25

http://i36.servimg.com/u/f36/15/86/83/31/1_2510.png

Lingfield Park 14:00

http://i36.servimg.com/u/f36/15/86/83/31/2_0010.png

Lingfield Park 14:35

http://i36.servimg.com/u/f36/15/86/83/31/14_3510.png

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Thursday 30th December

Lingfield Park 14:45

http://i66.servimg.com/u/f66/15/86/83/31/14_4510.png

Lingfield Park 15:20

http://i66.servimg.com/u/f66/15/86/83/31/15_2011.png

[9:25] Non-Runner: Jonnie Skull, ratings updated

Lingfield Park 15:50

http://i66.servimg.com/u/f66/15/86/83/31/15_5011.png

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Wednesday 15th December

Lingfield Park 14:15 – More Live Football Betting At totesport.com Handicap (Div 1), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

http://i66.servimg.com/u/f66/15/86/83/31/2_1512.png

Lingfield Park 14:50 – More Live Football Betting At totesport.com Handicap (Div 2), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

http://i66.servimg.com/u/f66/15/86/83/31/2_5010.png

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Monday 13th December

Wolverhampton 15:50 – Bigger Wins With SP At totesport.com Handicap (Div 1), 3yo plus, 5f 20y, Class 6

http://i66.servimg.com/u/f66/15/86/83/31/15_5010.png

Wolverhampton 16:20 – Bigger Wins With SP At totesport.com Handicap (Div 2), 3yo plus, 5f 20y, Class 6

http://i66.servimg.com/u/f66/15/86/83/31/16_2010.png

Wolverhampton 17:50 – 40 Live Football Markets At totesport.com Handicap, 3yo plus, 1m 141y, Class 6

http://i66.servimg.com/u/f66/15/86/83/31/17_5010.png

1st Pie Poudre @ 8-1

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Sunday 12th December

Southwell 14:15 – Free Racing Post Form At totesport.com Handicap, 3yo plus, 7f, Class 2

Love Delta (USA) 5.84
Malcheek (IRE) 0.02 <– 1st @ 25/1[/color:19hmcc94]
Ingleby Arch (USA) -2.05
Trans Sonic -3.33
Salerosa (IRE) -3.41
Gala Casino Star (IRE) -3.69

Betting Forecast:

Love Delta 7/2, Ingleby Arch 9/2, Trans Sonic 11/2, Imprimis Tagula 15/2, Malcheek 10/1, Salerosa 15/1

We thinks Trans Sonic is a very good e/w bet[/color:19hmcc94]

Southwell 14:45 – Membership Of Southwell Golf Club Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 5

Takajan (IRE) 4.15
Desert Strike 4.01
Ace Of Spies (IRE) -1.57
Punching -1.59
Rubenstar (IRE) -3.71
Benato The Great (IRE) -4.11 <– 1st @ 9/2[/color:19hmcc94]

Betting Forecast

: Takajan 2/1, Desert Strike 9/2, Ace Of Spies 5/1, Punching 6/1, Rubenstar 12/1, Benato The Great 22/1

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Saturday 11th December

I post the top 6 rated from now on and betting forecast

Lingfield Park 12:25 – Aerial Services Handicap (Div 1), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Dancing Welcome 4.42
Chinese Democracy (USA) 4.32
Resplendent Alpha 2.26
Pilgrim Dancer (IRE) 2.14
Super Frank (IRE) 1.24 <– 1st @ 11/4[/color:1lowarqb]
Ballyvonane (USA) -6.74

Betting Forecast

: Dancing Welcome 11/4, Chinese Democracy 3/1, Resplendent Alpha 5/1, Pilgrim Dancer 15/2, Super Frank 12/1

Lingfield Park 13:35 – Steve Abbott Memorial Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 3

Sioux Rising (IRE) -0.89
Secret Asset (IRE) -1.95 <– 1st @ 15/8[/color:1lowarqb]
Cardinal -3.21
Billy Red -4.57
Vhujon (IRE) -4.75
Art Scholar (IRE) -4.87

Betting Forecast

: Sioux Rising 3/1, Secret Asset 3/1, Cardinal 7/2, Billy Red 15/2, Art Scholar 10/1

Southwell 13:45 – Get Live Football Stats At totesport.com Handicap, 3yo plus, 1m

D’Urberville 0.08 <– 1st @ 5/2[/color:1lowarqb]
Minortransgression (USA) -0.32
Atacama Sunrise -0.94
Custard Cream Kid (IRE) -3.92
Half Sister (IRE) -4.79
Spread Boy (IRE) -5.04

Betting Forecast

: D’Urberville 5/2, Custard Cream Kid 7/2, Minortransgression 9/2, Atacama Sunrise 7/1, Half Sister 9/1, Spread Boy 12/1

Lingfield Park 14:10 – Aerial Services Handicap (Div 2), 3yo plus, 6f, Class 6

Espy 2.04
Loyal Royal (IRE) 1.08
Chjimes (IRE) 0.01
Lordsbury Pride (USA) -0.42
Mary’s Pet -1.23 <– 1st @ 10/1[/color:1lowarqb]
Leahness (IRE) -2.45

Betting Forecast

: Espy 7/2, Loyal Royal 9/2, Lordsbury Pride 5/1, Dualagi 6/1, Chjimes 15/2, Mary’s Pet 9/1

Southwell 14:55 – Tony McCoy For BBC Sports Personality Handicap, 3yo plus, 7f

Itsthursdayalready 4.14
Olympic Dream 2.15
Royal Island (IRE) 1.49
Mushy Peas (IRE) 1.14
Polemica (IRE) -1.25
Mackintosh (IRE) -1.35

Betting Forecast

: Olympic Dream 4/1, Mushy Peas 9/2, Novastasia 7/1, Jonnie Skull 15/2, Dancing Wave 10/1, Miss Flash Dancer 12/1

1st Clever Omneya @ 9/1[/color:1lowarqb]

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Sunday 5th December

Lingfield Park 14:30 – Dry Hill Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 4

Baby Dottie 3.28
Sioux Rising (IRE) 2.83
Onceaponatime (IRE) 2.09
Freddie’s Girl (USA) 1.57
Avonvalley 0.89
Whiskey Junction 0.18
Ivory Silk -0.02
Even Bolder -0.35
Silver Wind -0.54
Comadoir (IRE) -0.84
Efistorm -1.17
Perfect Act -1.44

Lingfield Park 15:00 – Haxted Handicap (Div 1), 3yo plus, 5f, Class 6

You’relikemefrank 0.08

Chjimes (IRE) -0.21
Spoof Master (IRE) -4.12
Bluebok -4.20
Spic ‘n Span -4.55
Silver Prelude -5.55
Radiator Rooney (IRE) -6.34
Thoughtsofstardom -13.37
Chantilly Jewel (USA) -14.56

Lingfield Park 15:30 – Haxted Handicap (Div 2), 3yo plus, 5f, Class 6

Bidruma 3.27
Sleepy Blue Ocean 3.04
Black Baccara 1.22
Miss Polly Plum 1.18
Edith’s Boy (IRE) -0.27
Silver Linnet (IRE) -0.33
Ten Down -2.99
Your Gifted (IRE) -6.66
Estonia -8.20

Brazilian Brush (IRE) -9.82

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4th December

Southwell 14:55 – totepool A Better Way To Bet Handicap, 3yo plus, 6f, Class 2

Love Delta (USA) 3.04
Mister Laurel 0.77
Cape Vale (IRE) -3.18

Great Charm (IRE) -3.78
Imprimis Tagula (IRE) -5.46
Ingleby Arch (USA) -5.57
Earlsmedic -5.74
Nightjar (USA) -5.97
Harlech Castle -6.77
Hard Rock City (USA) -7.42
Alhaban (IRE) -9.57

Kempton Park 15:10 – williamhill.com Handicap 3yo plus, 1m, Class 4

Fantasy Gladiator 4.64

She’s A Character 3.78
Cobo Bay 3.22
Blakey’s Boy 1.18
Suffolk Punch (IRE) 0.81
Humungous (IRE) -0.22
Having A Ball -1.23

Kempton Park 15:40 – William Hill – The Home Of Betting Handicap, 3yo plus, 7f, Class 2

Angel’s Pursuit (IRE) 7.24

Autumn Blades (IRE) 5.61
Elna Bright 4.43
Arteus 3.73
Lutine Bell 2.35
Seek The Fair Land 2.29
Rjeef (IRE) 1.10
Mia’s Boy 1.03
Street Power (USA) -1.49
One Way Or Another (AUS) -5.40
Art Scholar (IRE) -6.92
Mister Green (FR) -7.22

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