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<br>What i’m doing at the moment is laying horses that look like (on form) they should run well.  It’s coming up trumps :)<br>
The reason these selections are successful is probably because they are ‘obvious form’ selections that are over-bet by the racing public. The exchanges now the shrewd operator the chance to lay such horses, though I wonder if opportunities might be reduced over a period of time as the market adjusts to new conditions.
Incidentally I can put forward the following case study for a ‘surprise’ long-priced winner. Some punters would have been mystified by the winner mentioned below. In this case I wasn’t because I backed it, and for very solid reasons.
7th August 1998 1m 7f Apprentice Handicap at Wolverhampton(Class G)
The winner here was CHARLIE’S GOLD at 25/1 (Tote 32/1).<br>On the face of it Charlie’s Gold had little chance, his form reading 00-700 in varied company, including on the Fibresand, at distances up to 1m. Even allowing for a step up in trip his form was uninspiring and no suggestion that he had a chance. However, what I noticed, and presumably most of the racing public didn’t, was that he had won a novice hurdle over 2m 1f at Market Rasen 6 days previously. He was forecast at 33/1. Well he might not necessarily have had a favourite’s chance, but he was a corking bet at that price when he certainly should have been a single figure price, even allowing for the doubt about acting on the surface. <br>I split my bet between Bookmakers and Tote, made damn sure I kept quiet about the horse(!) and did very nicely. These sort of opportunities don’t come up very often but they are there for those prepared to have a proper look. Cynics may well have said it was a dubious race, a long odds winner with no form, but in reality it was just a horse which finally had the race conditions it needed.
Rob
—–<br>"The best tipsters are the ones who do not gamble … you can bet on it!<br>(c) http://www.racingdaily.co.uk "
RD
In view of the tone of your posting here I can’t help thinking that the signature to your posts is slightly ironic. However, I notice you have no tips on your web-site, have you seen the light or should that be darkness<br>?
Rob
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There is always a valid reason for a betting pattern, even if it’s a suspect one!
It doesn’t take much to shift the price in races at wolverhampton, there were only 7 bookmakers there last time I went, a move from 16s to 10s would need very little money. And anyway Beauvrai had only run once before and I believe it was it’s first run on the surface. It looked a difficult event to weigh up anyway. Presumably a horse suited by getting an easy run.
Regarding ‘always playing catch-up’, I think there may well be information that gives insiders more chance than the rest, but by the same token there are plenty of occasions when an insider’s view is blinkered by their connection.
If you truly believe in your last paragraph then why not forget about betting on horse racing?
<br>Rob
Racing Daily
The chances are that paddock or course watchers spotted something wrong with the horse, sweated up maybe, feeling under the weather, didn’t stride out on the way to post, or possibly simply over-rated in the betting. There are numerous reasons why horses drift in the betting, very very few of them could be considered even remotely dishonest.
If I back a loser that I expected to win then I work on the basis that a) I made an error of judgement, or b) something was amiss. I know the latter can happen, so I allow for it when calculating a horse’s chance.
If you are continually looking for conspiracies then I suggest you either stop betting on racing, or look inward and see if your methods or judgement are wrong.
Rob