The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

RobinFromIreland

Forum Replies Created

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 60 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • in reply to: Will we ever see their likes again? #273861
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    Pretty sure Ardross didn’t win 13 Group 1s; I understand that they were Pattern races but not Group 1s.

    Plus Secretariat’s 12f record is dirt-only.

    in reply to: Ballydoyle’s derisory use of pacemakers #251973
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    There’s something that this discussion has ignored, namely the fact that those two weren’t in there simply as pacemakers for Fame or Glory. That was only one objective.

    No. They were there partly to disrupt the pattern of the race, and to try and unsettle Sea the Stars – within the rules of course.

    Did we not see how Grand Ducal was rushed up after an intentionally tardy start, to rush right past the favourite and set him off? It worked in spades. He pulled like stink for a good two furlongs after that. Objective achieved.

    In the end, of course, it made no difference to this seemingly bombproof champion. But it was surely worth a shot (c.f. the infamous Carvills Hill "spoiler" incident in that Gold Cup, which

    did

    work, though not to the advantage of the Pitman first string.)

    I’m not entirely sure I agree with this. I feel Set Sail and Grand Ducal were ridden exactly the same as Set Sail and Rockhampton were in the Irish Champion. Grand Ducal was also in that race and wasn’t ridden quite so aggressively, but Rockhamption faded very badly around the final turn (after a very slow break), making it pointless running him as a pacemaker again.

    in reply to: Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe 2009 #251880
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    Sea The Stars is the 2nd fastest ever Arc Winner.

    Edit – actually 3rd ever fastest.

    I make it joint-4th.

    1997 Peintre Celebre 2:24.6
    2004 Bago 2:25.0
    2000 Sinndar 2:25.8
    1987 Trempolino 2:26.3
    2006 Rail Link 2:26.3
    2009 Sea the Stars 2:26.3

    All 3yos interestingly.

    in reply to: Changingoftheguard sold too race in Australia. #248942
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    Any whispers as to how much Golden Sword and Changingoftheguard would have sold for? How about future stallion arrangements should they turn out to be world-beaters – is that agreed normally too?

    in reply to: Sea The Stars – best since Dancing Brave #247622
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    The simple fact is he has won 5 of the most celebrated races in Europe run this year. The 3yo 1m championship, the 3yo 1m 4f championship, and all 3 of the most prestigious 10f 3yo+ races run in Europe. What’s more he has won them convincingly; traveling beautifully before dominating his rivals, whether they are attacking ahead or behind him.

    He has won on a straight mile, on right-handed, left-handed, flat and undulating courses. He is only the fourth horse (besides Coolmore champions Duke of Marmalade, Giant’s Causeway and Rock Of Gibraltar) of the last 25 years to win 5 Group 1s on the trot. He has beaten the winners of the Irish 2000 Guineas, the Irish Derby, the Tattersalls Gold Cup, the King George, the BC Turf and the Sussex Stakes among others.

    There still is potentially the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe to come, and even perhaps the BC Classic. With his connections, who knows, even the Hong Kong Cup could be mooted, should they wish, however remote that possibility.

    His father was a champion miler who sired Ouija Board. His mother won the Arc. His siblings have won G1s all over the world. He is half-brother to the great champion and (already) super-sire Galileo. He has truly flawless conformation, a perfect constitution and if anyone has ever seen footage of him after a race surrounded by people, an unflappable disposition.

    As a racehorse, he is exceptional; as a breeding prospect, utterly priceless.

    I don’t particularly care what number Timeform will put after his name. His achievements are timeless.

    in reply to: The Triple Crown is dead #234303
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    Our Triple Crown, in my opinion, demands greater versatility. Any potential candidate has to maintain his / her form over an entire season, with greater emphasis placed on stamina as the season progresses.

    I’ve no issue with that – problem is that there are so few potential candidates and even fewer that are interested.

    Affirmed became the last horse to claim the USTC in 1978. Nijinsky became the last ETC winner in 1970.
    Despite such contrasting demands, both are incredibly hard to achieve.

    Substantially more horses have attempted the Triple Crown in the States, so it’s interesting that the same number of horses have achieved the feat in both countries during the last 150 years – fifteen.

    I’m of the opinion that more horses would win the USTC if given sufficient time between races – I’d love to know how many have fallen at the final hurdle after winning the first two legs. It takes a class horse to win either the Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont Stakes, but a sound horse, despite inferior ability, holds an advantage over a superior, yet flat, rival in the second and third legs.

    Just using the last 50 years, there were 20 horses who won the first 2 legs of the USTC, with 3 completing the TC – Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed (three of the greatest racehorses ever). There have been a total of 32 horses that have done the Derby-Preakness double, with 11 TC winners included. There have been 11 horses to have won the Derby-Belmont double after losing the Preakness.

    For the first two legs of the ETC, I count Royal Palace, Sir Ivor (he didn’t run in the Leger I think – anyone know why?), Nijinsky, Nashwan and Sea The Stars. Only Nijinsky competed, never mind completed, the TC (albeit waiting on STS). In fact, a Derby winner hasn’t contested in the Leger in

    22 years

    , since Reference Point in 1987. The last Guineas winner to compete surely must be Nijinsky,

    39 years

    ago.

    Like I said there have been in recent times some horses who won either the Guineas/Derby and were very close in the other. New Approach was a whisker away in the Guineas. Without George Washington, Sir Percy would have been a double winner. Most famous of all, Dancing Brave could have been

    The USTC is a far more commercial event than ours. US racing needs a Triple Crown. We don’t.

    Why don’t we? What’s wrong with being commercial? This is the crux of my argument. Is it worth preserving the current ETC forever? Even if the Leger is clearly seen as the least valuable leg, so much so, that potential TC winners don’t even bother to compete? Why don’t we commercialize it?

    I think the general public would like the idea of a Triple Crown.

    I think we, actual fans of the sport, like the idea also, preferably in its current format because of tradition and the notion of it being a somehow more noble challenge, due to its timing and distance. But I’m willing to change for the good of the sport in the future.

    in reply to: The Triple Crown is dead #232903
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    I doubt any series of races will capture the imagination of racegoers if it made winning it easy and is won every other year ?

    With only Nashwan and Sea The Stars doing the double since 1973, it may be argued that it’s hardly easy. New Approach came close; Golan, Sir Percy, beaten by better horses at their weaker distances. Add a 10f in between and we can hardly say it would be expected to be won every other year, given what we already see.

    The aura of such races is the difficulty of it all, the rarity.

    I think the general public has lost any aura for the Triple Crown or there would be a clamoring for Sea The Stars to be focused on the Leger, as opposed to what I perceive to be faint hope. Imagine the reaction of the American racing public if the Kentucky Derby & Preakness winner decided to skip the Belmont. I don’t think it’s the same.

    No matter what manufactured triple crown is put up for contest it will never replace the Guineas – Derby – Leger, at least not in our life time, it would take numerous runnings and FAILURES for it to build any kind of aura about it.

    If the American Triple crown was won every year for a decade, it would lose its mystic before that decade was out.

    Like most series over many years, things aren’t always spread out evenly. Between 1935 and 1948, there were 6 Triple Crown winners, with 2 other years having the Derby and Preakness winner beaten in the Belmont. Since 1997, there have been 7 double winners trying, and failing, to win the Triple Crown, including twice having it happen 3 years in a row.

    Yet still it represents the most desired achievement in US racing.

    in reply to: The Triple Crown is dead #232783
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    While it remains to be seen whether Sea The Stars goes for the St. Leger (in my mind, I would consider it a 20/1 shot), many are saying the traditional Triple Crown still represents the ultimate test of a 3yo.

    I still think that, for me, the problem is the timing of the race. With international 3yo+ races now vying for attention, the Leger is simply not deemed worth winning versus races like the Irish Champion or preps for the Arc.

    Does anyone know if 1967 Guineas-Derby winner Royal Palace ran in the Leger that year (horse he beat at Epsom, Ribocco, won) – if not, why not? Injured, or bypassed? If so, where did he finish?

    People complain about how little Flat horses are raced. Look at the King George and it’s paltry turn out of 3yos now – in fact since Alamshar’s win in 2003, in think only Eswarah and Tycoon are the only 3yos to even contest and both finished well down. Many take a summer break. If anything, the KG is a 4yo+ race now.

    Someone asked whether there was any proof the public here would be interested in a US-style Triple Crown. It’s debatable I guess, but I think so. You only have to look at the huge increases in Belmont Stakes attendances (and esp. for horses the public love like Smarty Jones) to see the effect a Triple Crown attempt has on the racing public.

    I’d have the Dante as the middle leg. The date fits, 10f fits, York is a top racecourse, and it leaves the biggest race, the Derby, as the climax, something that I think would be incredible if a horse came into it after winning the 2000 Guineas and Dante. I’d love it at least. And perhaps it would get racing more publicity.

    I see the Triple Crown as something racing could use to revive itself – not confusing things like the proposed Sovereign series with its permutations. 3 races, in succession, 8 to 10 to 12 furlongs, culminating with the most famous race. Right now, it just gathers dust on the proverbial shelf, bereft of any interest to the tiny few that can even get close.

    in reply to: The Triple Crown is dead #232662
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    Let’s keep things on thread.

    So don’t change the Triple Crown from it’s current format? If it’s never attempted for another 35 years, so be it?

    in reply to: The Triple Crown is dead #232612
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    John Oxx’s view was that it was the 2000g that would be left out in future, as stamina tests ( 2 Derbys plus St Leger) are now more fashionable aspirations with rich owners.

    Interesting but what about your view? Does the Triple Crown mean much to you? Should it? Should it be changed? If so, to what? If not, why not?

    in reply to: The Triple Crown is dead #232602
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    Or might it be good for the Yanks to stick to the original design, and have a proper test of stamina toward the end of the 3yo season? :roll:

    The Americans have a series that draws public interest. The English don’t. Is the original design immutable?
    .

    Exactly how much interest?

    Enough that, from what I saw for the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, everyone stopped to watch the race and cheer it on. In the Belmont, it was the only race where the stands were completely full, when all came in from the open "party" areas in the back to watch the race. The Derby winner graced the cover of Sports Illustrated and all the talk was about whether this year the Americans would finally see a Triple Crown winner.

    I can’t of course give empirical evidence as to how much more or less the Triple Crown adds to public interest; but from what I’ve experienced, I feel like it very much works.

    I know much depends on the dam but this horse had the speed to win the Guineas, won the Derby a lot easier than the distance would suggest and if he got the trip in the St Leger surely that would make him a very special sire.

    If winning the Triple Crown by winning the Leger was that special, wouldn’t it have been an automatic decision for Nashwan and Sea The Stars to commit?

    Judging from the responses, the feeling I get is that, for others, the idea of a Triple Crown is not that important. Is this true? If the public believes that the Leger is "lesser" then why insist that things must stay the same?

    For me, I take the perspective of trying to promote racing, and I believe a Triple Crown is a good idea. The current one doesn’t work, so why not replace it? But it seems others do not agree.

    in reply to: The Triple Crown is dead #232554
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    Or might it be good for the Yanks to stick to the original design, and have a proper test of stamina toward the end of the 3yo season? :roll:

    The Americans have a series that draws public interest. The English don’t. Is the original design immutable?

    If we believe that the Leger is needed to fulfill the requirement of a "proper test of stamina toward the end of the 3yo season", then why should it be part of the Triple Crown?

    Is the Triple Crown just so historic, so important, that it must not be changed, even if it no longer is even

    attempted

    , never mind achieved?

    I’m a young racing fan. None of my friends are interesting in racing. Since living in America, it’s pretty clear to me that the Triple Crown is what represents racing here for the public.

    It works, yet it’s something that won’t be entertained it seems in England, even though it seems pretty clear to me and my generation, that our model is broken.

    in reply to: Britain’s newest racecourse #231490
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    How fortunate they were to sell the housing development at the very height of the property market in 2007.

    A year or two later and I think the financial viability of this enterprise may have been severely compromised.

    in reply to: Old Sectional Timing Data Anyone? #227174
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    I too am also looking for old Turftrax sectional data. Please get in touch if you can help me out, thanks.

    in reply to: Racing Post – online features. #224233
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    An API

    in reply to: Racing Software #223479
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    After spending 3 years on and off working on a piece of software I’m still non the wiser if prediction software can be profitable. My software is a combination of form study and predictive. The form study part has always been very useful, I still can’t believe that the Racing Post don’t provide the ability to filter a horses form based on going, distance, left/right handed, jockey etc. Another thing I have automated is for any race to find all previous meetings of the horses, I can then filter out meetings that were under vastly different going conditions, distances or were just too long ago to be relevant. I’ve found these form study aids very useful over the years. I can also compare 2 horses to find any other 3rd horse they’ve both raced against (very useful when trying to assess juvenile/novice races).

    On the prediction side of things over 11000 races my software shows a LSP of -400. The summer before last it excelled on the flat making a 500% profit in 4 months, I thought I was onto a good thing then last summer using exactly the same system there was a 20% loss to the starting bank.

    Where did you get the racing data from?

    in reply to: Overdose #222943
    RobinFromIreland
    Member
    • Total Posts 72

    This is Deep Impact-o-vu all over again…

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 60 total)