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belly, what are you looking for? Value winners? hand picked short-priced "certainties"? What sort of strike rate are you hitting? What’s the average price of your winners?
I’m a value punter who’s happy to hit a strike rate of just 15%. As a result I have to stake very conservatively. Tooting is the same.
If you saw the piece in the Racing Post earlier this week about pro punter Harry Findlay, you’d have seen that he is more your high risk smash-and-grab gambler. He still believes in value, of course, but he can see lots of value in odds-on shots.
It’s my belief that bad staking is one of the key reasons punters do their dough. If you want to be here in five, ten years, still on an upward curve, think carefully about the sort of winners you are looking for, and get an appropriate staking plan sorted, and stick to it. <br>
And Roses Of Spring’s good effort at Goodwood was clearly not a one-off!
It was all over for Safranine quite early, wasn’t it. A discreet line will now be drawn through her name in my little notbook…
OK – Smart Predator and Absent Friends for the forecast at Beverley tomorrow!!!<br>
I’m sure it pays to specialise, jay doubleyuh.
Compared with the Flat, the Jumps isn’t such a hectic season, so it’s just about possible to keep tabs on the quality races in all divisions.  Even so, I do try to concentare my efforts in two areas: juvenile hurdlers and staying chasers. ÂÂÂ
On the Flat, though, there is so much racing that I find it impossible to keep up with what’s going on across the board.  So, in addition to all the big group races we love, I try to concentrate on sprints. ÂÂÂ
The good thing about sprints is that a horse can run well and yet still go off next time a big price.  In particular I look for horses who have run well but finished down the field due to bad luck in running, a bad draw, the wrong ground etc.
Like tooting, I’m a "value punter".  He ended a bad run fairly recently with a horse called Roxanne Mill.  This was a big price in a pretty small field, but had run really well in its previous race from a poor draw (at Kempton, I think).  He saw that the horse’s chance had been underestimated by the market, and backed it.
Today, I’ve taken a chance on Safranine in the sprint at Leicester.  Given her lowly rating, I thought she ran pretty well behind the likes of Repertory and the improving Absent Friends two runs back.  I’m hoping her bad run last time really was due to the official explanation (saddle slipped).
If she goes in, great.  If not, I’ll have to try to console myself that the price I took (11/1) was bigger than it should have been!  (There are other form horses in the line-up for this race, so I’ve limited myself to minimum stakes.)
To win, you have to rely on finding an edge, on knowing more than the accepted wisdom of the market.  Sometimes you’re proved wrong, sometimes right.  If you specialise in certain types of race, you give yourself a better chance of success. <br>
(Edited by remittance man at 1:08 pm on Sep. 23, 2002)
Colin, I’ve done the same. Backed Sakhee at a juicy price on the off-chance he runs and with a refund if he doesn’t. Not convinced the times today indicate lightning ground, although the class of racing wasn’t the highest.
Backed Aquarelliste earlier in the week as a pure value call. Way too big in my book.<br>
About your last two points, Escorial:
(1) If I remember rightly, Michael Tabor was asked to identify the most exciting horse in his ownership. So I think we can forgive him for not mentioning Hawk Wing.
(2) Is it true that the O’Brien yard believed ROG was superior to Hawk Wing before the Guineas? Has Mick Kinane said which colt he would have ridden?<br>
I quote Escorial: "Just for one second, imagine A O’B had not said a word about how much of a monster this horse is supposed to be."
This for me is the key.
If Aidan had said nothing, we’d almost certainly now be giving Hawk Wing considerably more credit than he’s getting.
If he hadn’t been hyped:
We’d almost certainly be full of admiration for the colt’s versatility.
We’d almost certainly allow ourselves to believe the truth that he’s been genuinely unlucky.
ROG is a brilliant miler but no-one is suggesting he could go 12f.
High Chap is a relentlessly powerful galloper over 12f but no-one is suggesting he could step back to a mile.
A O’B did speak out about his excitement for Hawk Wing and now he wishes he hadn’t. And I don’t blame him because it has tainted the way the public perceive the horse.
My own view lies somewhere between Escorial’s and Steve’s. I am still very excited about the horse, but am not yet ready to proclaim him. If he goes to York let’s hope the ground is fast and the opposition top drawer.
Good points about Imperial Dancer, steve. A much improved performer ever since being stepped up to 10f this season.
As for Indian Creek, he must have fast ground in spite of what Elsworth says. I don’t think you can use his bad run in the Eclipse to cast doubt on the form of the Prince of Wales which was run on completely different ground. What you probably can say with confidence is that the Prince of Wales field was substandard; but Grandera won it easily nonetheless.
Thanks PR. Another thing in HW’s favour is his tactical speed, which should help him cope alright with a strong paced Classic. I’m just not sure his kick can match Street Cry’s – but we’ll hopefully have a better chance to judge HW’s ability at the finish in a truly run race on quick ground before October.
Esc, I took that 12/1 quite a long time ago – soon after Coral opened a book. I don’t know what he’s available at now since I don’t see many firms offering a market – although I read he’d be around the 15/1 mark in the US version of ante-post betting which opened earlier this week.
Apart from the "promise" of his Guineas run and the fact that Tiznow had retired, I took into account a couple of factors before taking the price.
Firstly, I reckoned he should act on the dirt and get the 10f trip (yes, it’s possible he may be best over a mile). Secondly and more importantly, the fact that Coolmore make it their business to target the Breeders’ Cup. Although things can change a lot before October, for the moment I’d still expect HW to be aimed at the Classic.
Much depends on how well/if he progresses. If he progresses well enough to justify a crack at the Classic, the only way he’ll be bigger than 12/1 is on the US pari-mutuel.
I’ve already said I think Street Cry is the one to beat amongst the Europeans. But I’m happy with the thought processes that went into the bet.<br>
On quicker ground he might have picked up more readily so I wouldn’t be too harsh on him. I’m not sure I’m any wiser though. The real tests are yet to come.
I’m pleased he’s done it and hope he goes on to better things. I have him at 12/1 for the BC Classic but on what I’ve seen so far Street Cry is the best European for that contest.<br>
The Champion Stakes is hardly a race for "champions" anymore. Times have changed.
It’s all very well Newmarket bleating, but with the Breeders’ Cup falling so soon after the "Champions" meeting, something has to give – and I don’t see it being the American meeting.
CONGRATULATIONS FOLKS!!