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Well done, Ginger! Many Clouds and Monetaire. Plus I found Medinas under my own steam.
I’m going off a cliff with you today, Ginger. It’s fun. A bit like being handcuffed to a madman.
Weeeeelcome to my (Saturday) world…
It’s one day’s racing Prof.
I know, Ginger! Was only larking around.
Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup, Newbury
30 points @ 10/1 (L) Smad Place* (min 8/1)
25 points @ 16/1 (L) The Druids Nephew* (min 12/1)Ok. Forgive my stupidity: what does (L) mean?[/quo
Anyway. Did it. TDN suddenly shortened a bit. I thought: is ginger’s advice changing the market???
Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup, Newbury
30 points @ 10/1 (L) Smad Place* (min 8/1)
25 points @ 16/1 (L) The Druids Nephew* (min 12/1)Ok. Forgive my stupidity: what does (L) mean?
OK, so I bet that per point from now onwards?
Bet what you can afford Prof, that’s why I put the stakes in points not pounds so people could bet whatever is right for them. I do go through losing runs from time to time so keep a bit of a "bank" back just in case one starts just as you start to bet. Your size of bet should depend on whether you’re a risk taker or more cautious, how much savings you have and/or income and what your outgoings are.
What is your usual betting outlay Prof?
How much do you have coming in?I myself do not have any other income coming in; no "work", no pension, not even any unemployment/job seekers benefits, no nothing. My outgoings are very low compared to most.(eg own my house without a mortgage and only have a small car which I do under 5000 miles a year, don’t often go to pubs/restaurants etc). But even so, I need to be very cautious. My own staking plan is for each point to be worth 0.0002 of my total bank account savings.
Because I bet more than one horse in a race, normally betting between 75 and 100 points in a race. So it works out at between 1.5% to 2% of my savings invested per race.
How much spare cash are you able to put by to bet from Prof? Would you be able to bet say £400 on one day’s racing? If so £1 per point is fine. (remembering I can often bet in four races in a day, although I don’t bet every day). If you could afford to bet £600 in a day, then 1.5 points may be right for you etc etc.
Can do £400-600 on aday’s racing no prob – wiv the right information, guv!
I’ll start following you, Ginge. Who knows, it could bring me out of the turf doldrums. I had a winner today, mind. Shantou Magic.…and while we’re at it: Has anyone on here ever suggested forming a syndicate for the Scoop6?
It seems to me only a syndicate of turf obsessives could pull it off.
nothing like a contrary view to get the grey matter agitated.
I think Ginger’s posts here over the years are there for all to see and your slightly condescending remark is unworthy of you prof. I doubt you have the slightest intention of following anyone’s recommendations. It’s evident to me that making the game pay is an enormous task and I often compare professional punters to the highly paid whizz kids employed by Investec and their like. generally, its high-fives and crates of champagne if these guys can finish the year in any positive territory let alone beat the average market returns.
Pro punting is a different risk entirely if you are depending on it for a living and its the loss of limited capital that creates the greatest challenge to anyone’s punting prowess.
I think what you say about the Paddy Power is self-evident and I personally thank the armies of "mugs" that help give a small select few the edge. There are plenty of guys producing positive returns on their selections but such is the challenge of betting that it doesn’t necessarily mean they make money punting because the two exercises (finding winners and successful punting) are entirely different animals.
We all love different aspects of the game and I can appreciate the aesthetics as well as any man; the feeling of cheering home a horse in your own colours on a top day’s racing is hard to beat. However, punting on horses is my abiding interest and whereas I admired my friends eulogies about Jezki’s champion hurdle win this year (we were in attendance and he bought all the memorabilia) virtually my only interest in the day was an interest in a Paddy Brennan mount in an insignificant race at Sedgefield.
I meant no condescension to Ginger, Royal Academy. When he suggested following his tips I thought, OK, I’ll give it a whirl. Why not? I haven’t followed a tipster since Rob Wright in the Times about six years ago. I asked how much and what, because he does things in points and I’m no maths head. I can find winners but as you say, making it all pay is another discipline.
OK Ginge, I don’t disbelieve you. Just tell me what betting bank I will need to follow your daily advice and come out on top to the tune of, say, £10,000?
Well as it turned out, because (excluding ante-post) the first day of the thread showed a profit and never went in to the red… @ just £1.37 per point you could have had a bank of just £146.59 and made £10,000 if following all my tips.
OK, so I bet that per point from now onwards?
What do I like about it? I trained as a painter (fine art); the first thing I liked about racing was its beauty. It is the most aesthetically pleasing sport in the world. I like the whole impedimenta of it: the silks, the tracks, the turf, the names, etc. Arriving at, say, Brighton, when a sea-fret is in and you can’t even see the top of the radio mast at the end of the track and then the sun burns the mist off and the horses parade for the first race. It’s a great thing to see, and I never get tired of it.
Standing at the last fence at Sandown in the depths of winter; watching half a dozen splashes of colour moving through the winter landscape at Plumpton. Horses racing through evening sunlight at Bath or Epsom or Chester.
I still like pondering the form, the handicap charts, looking for that little edge in form study like for example spotting a horse that can use its Brighton hill strength to piss up at Kempton etc.
The satisfaction of sniffing out a value winner or place bet, and a sense of anticipation at the start of meetings I really enjoy (Ascot, Goodwood, Chester etc). I used to feel it about Cheltenham – I used to have the week off work for it! But it doesn’t really move me anymore. It has become a Sisyphean task, a true waste of time and money.
And yes, I like to win money. I freely admit I have been/am at times an embittered punter – I find it hard to believe that any normal human being who has a good set-to with the bookies isn’t driven slightly potty by the experience for reasons already mentioned, plus all the usual Law of Sod stuff.
My breakthrough in maintaining enjoyment was to stop, ahem, betting large. That is what sours everything. I like to mess about with small perms and small wagers, so that the fact it’s all a bit of a condoesn’t matter
… much. One just takes what one wants from it. However, my disputatious side, and the fact there is not one racing journalist who is prepared to go off piste about the sport’s many faults, means I will moan and take the pee because I can; I pay my subs to the sport and it bloody well needs pointing out again and again:
we punters don’t stand a chance in the long term!
And the jockeys/connections/trainers/bookies who we keep going one way and another don’t give two ****s.
Excellent start and middle Prof, shame about the conclusion. You say
"we punters don’t stand a chance in the long term"!
But that’s not true is it? I am living proof you are wrong. How come I make a good profit purely by studying form (Timeform)? Backing horses which are imo "value", with absolutely no inside information what so ever.
My current Gingers Jumpers – Daily Lays And Plays thread on this forum shows consistent profits after many thousands of bets.
Three individual days racing this season
2011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
2012/2013 Season Profit +4470.00 points
2013/2014 Season Profit +1192.48 points
Three season Profit +7215.33 points2014-2015 season so far: +104.25 points
Thread Total +7319.58 pointsNobody is denying some skulduggery goes on, same anywhere money is involved. But it is nowhere near the levels you and Woolfie claim. I’d rather bet on horse racing than anything else.
Punters can only make money investing long term in racehorses if they are willing to study form
and
are good at evaluating form in to chance/value. Although some will know their form book back to front and still won’t be able to evaluate form in to chance/value. Sadly it must be said, most punters don’t really understand what is required in "studying form".
A few might not need to study hard for short term profit; might be able to find something under-estimated by the markets that gives an edge for a while; allowing them to find value without seeking it out. However, the problem with this is it’s difficult to tell the difference between an inevitable losing run (that every profitable punter has from time to time and comes through)… and when the bookmakers/markets have cottoned on to the "edge" and shortened prices; so the edge is no longer profitable. When do you stop?
Thankfully, most losing punters still enjoy horse racing. It’s just a matter of paying for their enjoyment. Just as someone might pay for a pint in the pub for enjoyment. It is unfortunately a natural instinct for some punters to blame others or something else for their own failure to make a profit. That said, we should certainly all keep a look out and say when we think skulduggery has taken place.
OK Ginge, I don’t disbelieve you. Just tell me what betting bank I will need to follow your daily advice and come out on top to the tune of, say, £10,000?
Excellent post Prof.
I would disagree with your conclusion that punters ‘don’t stand a chance in the long term’. But it is a herculean task, one that I thought I was capable of, but realistically probably am not. But to get to the top of any profession is surely no less onerous? Why would we think joining the 0.1% (or whatever) of punters who win should be easy?
Many years ago, I managed betting shops and saw no end of punters do their money and blame that trainer, that jockey, that horse etc etc but never themselves. Then they’d be back the following day to get even more angry! I always thought this was ridiculous. Why put yourself through all that pain for what is a hobby?
I think the key to enjoyment of the betting side of the sport is to find one’s own equilibrium. If that’s £10k win singles, great. If it’s 10p Yankees, also great! The moment it starts to make you angry or upset, it’s time to walk.
Mike
I take your point but i don’t think it is that simple. Winning is addictive, and it leads punters to be a bit silly. However my biggest upsetting moments have always been caused by NOT putting the bet on. Years ago I stayed behind at work to pore over the last three races of an evening meeting. Mid to big prices. I left work and crossed the road to the betting shop. I had a trixie worked out – I was very fond of them back then. Anyway I planned to do a £4 or £5 e/w trixie. Insane, you say? Nevison was/is my punting hero. I’d had a slightly vexing few days and so DECIDED NOT TO PUT THE BET ON. You know what happened.
It would have been my biggest win to that date. I probably would have had the horses’ names tattooed on my arm. I should have left it alone then. But I was overall riding fairly high. I’d been an occasional mug punter for years before really trying to get to grips with the game. Nothing will ever match that honeymoon period: of not knowing enough to talk myself out of bets that actually came off because they were against the crowd; of discovering so much, reading the history of the game back to the three Arabians, getting ever closer to the really big one … the one that never came, or has yet to. Disillusionment came, along with deeply rooted bad habits. I believe Napoleon was on to something when he asked of new officers ‘has he got luck?’
Gambling is rather childish. Winning is lovely. Losing is humiliating, which is I think why people get so angry when they lose. No one should ever bet on a group of animals running round a field and expect to win, but we quite often DO win, and then we start thinking we can win again, and then we lose, and then we win… Gotta have a hobby I suppose. It is worth bearing in mind that people are encouraged to bet by bookmakers. Betting shops and bookies adverts are filled with aggressive tactics to make punters part with their money, so Mr Caution’s oft-repeated phrase ‘no one forces you’ isn’t quite as watertight as he thinks. There are always little persuaders, even if it’s the voice in one’s head.
