[pixo]

Gotcha, cheers mate

[pixo]

Hi Matt :wave:

I think you missed Leatherback (a non-runner in the 1.45 Donc) who won six days ago over the sticks (I beleive the above selections won seven days ago) Just pointing it out as these type of recent winners are very hard to spot and they are not listed as such in the press.

[pixo]

I believe our biggest volume so far was over 200k matched on Barracouda yesterday, was that one pulled?

<br>Glenn,

I have here the figures on Baracouda:

10am<br>Matched £12,365<br>1.30pm<br>Matched £37,529<br>…and as you point out 200K matched at the off.

Now that is a normal betting pattern, also Baracouda was trading at much shorter odds: low 1.40 high 1.50 and in a race worth £15000 to the winner.

It has since come to my attention that a well known tipping line who had advised a Maximum bet on Platinum Duke had to send an urgent message to its members to cancel the bet on the horse in view of what was happening.

I am not blaming you or Betfair Glenn, all that I am saying is that an unusual betting pattern had developed on Platinum Duke which was noted by not so naive gamblers who had the sense to keep out of it.

(Edited by pixo at 12:51 pm on Feb. 24, 2002)

[pixo]

I have to come to Punter’s aid here…

I was warned by four different sources that what was going on at Lingfield was most definetely not a a normal betting pattern and it did send bells ringing.                                               

These are the exact figures on Platinum Duke at 1pm when last I checked the market at Betfair:

last 2.85<br>low 2.15<br>high 2.85<br>Matched £34,121 (99% of the total matched on the race)<br>Unmatched £6,240<br>Total matched on the race was £34,538

The only other horse to have attracted similar type of early money at Betfair was Lord Of The River which by 1pm had matched £21,839

                               BE CAREFUL FOLKS!<br>

(Edited by pixo at 2:43 am on Feb. 24, 2002)

[pixo]

Razeen, a simple profitable statistic off the top of my head would be, for example, the record of favourites (Rob take note) in the St Leger but, more often than not, profitable statistical data may contain more variables, be rather complicated and time consuming to unravel.

[pixo]

99% of the time Data Statistics is the only input that determines weather I have a bet and its stake (Im the cold-analytical type of gambler I guess)

(Edited by pixo at 9:01 pm on Jan. 29, 2002)

[pixo]

Good job Stav, cheers mate :)

[pixo]

:wave: Hiya Rob, To answer your question…

I have kept detailed records of all my bets over the past 5 years and back in September last year I did a major study of them by pitching the EW bets as Win only bets. What I found astounded me, if I had backed all my EW bets over the 5 year period as Win only instead (1/2 pt win & 1/2 pt place vs 1 pt win) I would have increased my profit by 26.7%. Needless to say I dont back EW anymore except at odds of 20/1 when 1/4 the odds or 25/1 when 1/5 the odds simply because of two personal reasons: a) 99% of my bets are at 2/1+ so the place fractions at the above odds would translate to 2/1 for the EW bet reaching the frame in both cases. b) 3 years ago I had a losing run of 44 bets at odds of 9/1+ which almost destroyed my betting bank (all of them by Pricewise by the way) and after that experience I would rather accomodate the 20/1+ shots as EW for the time being.

There is not much I can add to the obvious, except perhaps a quote from Jack Ramsden: "I think every punter would benefit by cutting out all EW bets"

[pixo]

Hi Darrell :wave:

Yep, thats where I got confused.

Thanks mate! :)

[pixo]

Hi Darrel :wave:

I think your system is a real bookiebasher -we lot dont have a chance in the competition!

Hope you dont mind me butting-in but Im also a bit confused as to why Phar Less Hassle wasnt one of your system selections on Monday like Hudsonmat pointed out the betting forecast in RP said:

2.05 Plump Claiming Hurdle<br>7/4F Bhutan – LTO 4th<br>2/1  Hugo De Perro – LTO 4th<br>9/2  Phar Less Hassle – LTO 2nd

Also spotted other system selections Monday in non-handicap races using the RP:

4.55 South The Scaffolder 11/2 LTO 3rd<br>5.15 Pont   Lieuday 11/4 LTO 2nd<br>4.05 Plum   Hurricane Pete 25/1 LTO 3rd

and today…

2.00 Chep  Northern Tenesse 10/1 LTO 1st<br>3.35 Chep  Table For Five 4/1 LTO 1st

Is there a particular reason why they didnt fit the system?

Sorry to be so daft, just trying to get the system rules straight in my head too :confused:<br>

(Edited by pixo at 5:46 pm on Oct. 24, 2001)

[pixo]

:clap: Thanks for sharing your wisdom with us Tom! :armbounce:

[pixo]

:clap: Thanks Sal and Jim :clap:

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