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3.45 Newbury – NO BET, I would imagine everything will gather against the stand side rail, in which case it will be whoever gets the clearest of runs wins, seeing as that can’t be predicted by the form book or the betting market, I will leave the race alone.
3.00 Ripon – The Marwin Koukash Chester Cup trial. Was looking at Exemplary as I think he may get a soft lead and there is no better executer than Joe Fanning when this happens, in the end I decided that NO BET is the call though.
2.00 Ripon – I was looking at Zebrano, and Keys of Cyprus, but in the end decided that the race is too trappy. No bet the call.
1.35 Newb. Exceptionally competitive early season handicap, full of lightly raced, well bred sorts from top yards, but I’m going to take a chance with All Action at 8/1. I think most of the opposition will want further in time, and he could be the sort to catch fresh looking at his profile so far.
My guess would be that a couple of the bigger name jockeys who have been riding around Wolverhampton,Lingfield etc. this winter, when they could have been racing for better money abroad are involved.
2.30 Wolverhampton – Tamasou, won off a higher mark in the past, fully effective over course and distance, weak race, market vibes imply that he’s fit enough for his first run of the season. 11/2
The majority of flat horses are rated below 80. In my opinion there is too much racing in this bottom grade. Owners are cutting their losses with this type of horse and as Tuffers says, unless you can win with your horse every 3 weeks the prizemoney does not even cover expenses. If there are less horses in the bottom bracket, there will have to be less races, if the courses that only put on races for this type of horse don’t upgrade their racing and prizemoney then they will go out of business.
In ten years time, I think British racing will have changed a lot. There will be less horses, less racing, less courses and less corruption. I can see courses challening the Tote monopoly ruling, and would expect there to be more pool betting companies around. There will be race meetings where there won’t be any traditional bookmakers, you will have exchange booths or pool betting.
Courses will have to evolve, and find other ways of generating income. Too many racecourse owners are stuck in the dark ages, I applaude the Horsemans group for taking the game to them. The ones that can’t up their game will fall by the wayside. In any walk of life it should be the strong that survive, and this creates progression and not regression. I don’t think anyone on this forum can say that British racing is progressive, that is why changes to the system need to be made.
I thought Nave ran a decent race today, just lacking the pace of the first two inside the final furlong, there are definitely races to be won with him when he steps up in trip.
Froddo,I certainly agree that you need to specialise, you won’t see me putting races up in France or Ireland.
You would have read in my initial post that the majority of my bets are in handicaps. My preferred route is to back horses who are on, or below their last winning mark, the market will generally tell you if a return to form is expected. I also like to back horses who are open to improvement running in handicaps, you have to be a lot more selective with this type of horse. In my opinion it is much harder for a trainer to gauge the level of a horses ability at home, yet hide it’s light under a bushel in it’s early runs on the racetrack. There will be countless number of failed punts on lightly raced 3 year olds during the first few months of the season. Unless I have high regard for the stable I would rather have a bit of form to work with rather than following punts when there is no racecourse evidence to back it.
3.10 Beverley – Nave, unfurnished last year, and looks as though he should improve again this year. I’m hoping his stable companion, Green Lightning, will set a strong pace, which should test the stamina doubts over half of the field. Currently best priced at 13/2.
GDC, the thing that I’ve noticed over the years is that the cloudy picture of even the trickiest handicaps tends to clear as post time approaches. In this years County hurdle for example, there were only 2 horses that were on my shortlist that were shorter an hour before the off than they were in the morning. They were Final Approach, and Get Me Out Of Here, they finished 1st and 2nd. Hopefully the waters surrounding todays 2 handicaps in question will be clearer by mid afternoon. If not then no bet will be the call.
4.20 Catterick – No Bet
3.20 Cheltenham – The 2 I was interested in were Secret Dancer and Made In Time. If the ground had been good to soft I would have gone for Secret Dancer but he’s got a history of knee trouble, and quickish ground on an undulating course could undo him. Made In Time has a history of breathing trouble, but so had Get Me Out Of Here prior to running a stormer in the County Hurdle. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Made In Time had had a small breathing op since his last run, I can see his jockey sitting off the pace early and take it up after the last. Currently freely available at 7/1.
